Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Is Troy Franklin‘s usage for real? I don’t know, but we’re going to find out this week. I know we have seen this before, only for Sean Payton to snatch it away from us last year. Last season, Franklin looked to be gaining steam in Weeks 6-7 with 65.5 and 50.8% of the snaps, but after that, he didn’t play more than 46% of the snaps in any other game in 2024. The last two weeks have been different, though. To open the season, Franklin had a 59.2% snapshare, which increased to 82.8% last week. Franklin has been quite good through two games with a 21.4% target share, 2.61 yards per route run, a 41.8% air-yard share, and a 24.4% first-read share. The Bolts utilize two high at the eighth-highest rate (61.1%). Against two high, Franklin has been the receiver Denver has leaned on so far with a 22.9% target share, 1.83 yards per route run, and a 30.4% first-read share. The matchup is tough this week for Franklin, but he should see plenty of volume if this role holds. The Chargers have allowed the fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
After a monster game in Week 2, Wan’Dale Robinson is the WR9 in fantasy points per game. He is tied for second on the team with two red zone targets. Robinson has a respectable aDOT (11.0) now while seeing a 23.1% target share, a 27.6% air-yard share, and a 32% first-read share. He has averaged 98.5 receiving yards per game with 2.77 yards per route run. Robinson is a VERY strong play this week. The Chiefs have the sixth-highest rate of two high (62.1%). Against two high, Robinson has seen his first-read share increase to 37% and his yards per route run climb to 3.45. The Chiefs have been torched by slot receivers, allowing the seventh-highest PPR points per target. Start Robinson this week.
The Quentin Johnston breakout season still looks VERY REAL. After two games, he is the WR7 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 23% target share with 2.27 yards per route run (75 receiving yards per game) and a 26.7% first-read share. He is tied for the team lead with two red zone targets. This week, he’ll face his toughest test of the season. Johnston might get shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain. Surtain followed Calvin Ridley on 87.1% of his routes in Week 1, limiting him to one target and zero receiving yards. In Week 2, he followed Michael Pittman Jr. on 56.7% of his routes, with Pittman Jr. securing all three of his targets in his coverage for only 28 scoreless receiving yards. Johnston could get wiped off the board by Surtain, which would alter the Bolts’ approach to single high and man coverage this week. This week, the Bolts face a Denver secondary that has utilized single high at the fifth-highest rate (62.5%) and man coverage at the second-highest rate (45.8%). Quentin Johnston has been the team’s go-to receiver against single high and man coverage. Against single high, he leads the team in target per route run rate (26%), yards per route run (3.0), and first-read share (34.6%). Against man coverage, it’s a similar story with him leading the team in target per route run rate (42%), yards per route run (3.42), and first-read share (41.7%). If Surtain follows Johnston, I expect him to have a tough week, but I’m hoping he proves me wrong. We shall see. Denver has allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, Travis Hunter played 62.3% of the defensive snaps. That didn’t stop him from playing 59.2% of the offensive snaps as well. I don’t know if Hunter will play that much weekly on both sides of the ball, but it was good to see proof of that concept for Hunter. Hunter has a 64.9% route share with a 19.2% target share (28% target per route run rate), a 6.3 aDOT, 1.10 yards per route run (27.5 receiving yards per game), a 22% first-read share, and a 28.6% designed target share. Basically, when he is on the field with the offense, he has operated as the team’s starting slot receiver (66% slot) and been fed short-area designed targets. Hunter is an immensely talented player, but Jacksonville is using him like their version of Wan’Dale Robinson. Unless Hunter breaks one of these targets for a big play or scores a touchdown (two red zone targets), you’ll likely be disappointed with this fantasy production. Houston has allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Michael Pittman didn’t get the full shadow treatment from Pat Surtain in Week 2, but he did see him on 56.7% of his routes, which did impact his day. Overall, Pittman Jr. has a 20.6% target share with 2.07 yards per route run (60 receiving yards per game) and a 20.8% first-read share. Pittman Jr. is still looking for his first red zone target from Daniel Jones. This could be a strong week for Pittman Jr. against the Titans’ two-high coverage. Tennessee has featured two high at the 12th-highest rate (51.9%). Against two high, Pittman Jr. leads the team with 2.79 yards per route run and ranks second on the team in first-read share (22.7%). Pittman could see shadow coverage this week from L’Jarius Sneed, who followed Davante Adams last week. Adams cooked Sneed (78.6% of routes), securing five of nine targets in his coverage for 100 yards and a score. Pittman can win against Sneed. Among 96 qualifying receivers, Pittman Jr. ranks 25th in separation and 27th in route win rate. Tennessee is 19th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
To open the season, Calvin Ridley has seen the usage that we hoped for with a 23% target share, a 29.3% air-yard share, and a 26.8% first-read share, but the production hasn’t been there. Yes, one of those games he did lock horns with Pat Surtain, but he also had another dud last week. Ridley has 1.33 yards per route run and has averaged 42 receiving yards. He has posted only a 0.016 separation score and a 4.8% route win rate, so it’s tough to be too bullish about his outlook this week, but he could definitely be in store for a solid outing with this week’s matchup. The Colts have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers through two games.
Ricky Pearsall is the WR35 in fantasy points per game. He has a 17.6% target share, a 45.8% air-yard share, 2.41 yards per route run, and a 24.5% first-read share. Last week, with Jauan Jennings back, he had a 15.4% target share and a 23.1% first-read share as Jennings led the team in both categories (23.1%, 30.8%). Pearsall is tied for second on the team with two red zone targets. He’s posting solid if not strong numbers on a per-route basis, but it’s not great that his market share immediately dropped with Jennings’ return to the lineup. It’s only one game, so I’m not going to panic. This week, Pearsall faces an Arizona secondary that utilizes two high at the ninth-highest rate (55.6%). Against two high, Pearsall has only an 11% target per route run rate, 1.08 yards per route run, and an 11% first-read share. This isn’t the week to flex him if you can help it. The puny usage against two high and a tough secondary matchup could lead to a sleep stat line for Pearsall. Arizona has allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers this season.
DJ Moore has taken a backseat to Rome Odunze this season. He is the WR54 in fantasy points per game with a 16.2% target share, a 23.3% air-yard share, and a 19% first-read share. Moore has averaged 57 receiving yards per game with 1.56 yards per route run. This week is a sneaky opportunity for Moore to have a boom game. Dallas has utilized two high at the third-highest rate (64.1%). Against two high, Moore has seen his target share skyrocket to 27.3% with 3.32 yards per route run and a 36.8% first-read share. These are bonkers numbers. Add in that Dallas has allowed the most receiving yards per game and the highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers, and Moore looks primed to smash this week.
Elic Ayomanor is coming off his best game as a pro as the WR24 in fantasy last week. Ayomanor could just be getting started and bust out another strong performance this week. Ayomanor has a 21.3% target share and 26.8% first-read share with 1.44 yards per route run and 0.104 first downs per route run. This week, he faces a Colts’ secondary that has utilized single high with 54.4% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, Ayomanor has seen his target share increase to 23.1% with a 32.1% first-read share and 0.091 first downs per route run. Ayomanor is a STRONG flex play this week against a Colts’ secondary that has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers through two games.
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