Welcome to Week 4 of the offensive pace and efficiency report. September has been a display of offense from the usual suspects, with one addition at the top, the Indianapolis Colts.
Teams are fighting off the annual Week 3 injury wave and looking to move the ball on opponents this weekend.
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NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency
This series uses expected points added (EPA). For more information on EPA, click here.
Offenses Trending Up
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are 3-0 and showing balance offensively as a top-10 team in passing and running efficiency.
Baker Mayfield is the fantasy QB10, with his completion rate down 10% from 2024. Much of that is due to a 58.6% clip in Week 1. In Weeks 2 and 3, he posted 77.1% and 82.1%, respectively. Mayfield has been effective with his legs as well, ranking second among quarterbacks in yards per attempt (9.7). With his accuracy trending straight up, his value will appreciate in fantasy.
While Bucky Irving has yet to have a spike week for managers, the Buccaneers are seventh in rushing yardage. Irving is beating Rachaad White in snap share significantly. He is eighth among running backs in targets (14) out of the backfield. The usage is ideal, and the production is coming.
While the Tampa Bay receiving corps is injured, it is hard to ignore its depth. Emeka Egbuka is the fantasy WR10 and is tied for second at receiver in touchdowns (three). Egbuka’s Target share will explode in the absence of Mike Evans. The rookie is 11th overall in EPA among receivers (11.8). Chris Godwin is at practice this week and listed as questionable to play against the Eagles. The production from Tampa Bay’s offense is below its baseline, ranking 13th in scoring.
Hold these players.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams totaled 356 yards against the Eagles in Week 3. They’ve jumped to 11th in EPA/play (0.02) after ranking 19th after Week 1.
The production on the ground has picked up for the Rams. Los Angeles is seventh in running efficiency, with Kyren Williams ranking ninth in rushing yardage (226). Williams is the fantasy RB14, but managers need not panic. He has 55 attempts versus the 14 for Blake Corum, and has scored once on the ground and once through the air. The Rams are only 6-for-13 in the red zone. With improvement inside the 20, more touchdowns will come for Williams.
When healthy, Puka Nacua is an elite fantasy asset. He is the fantasy WR1 and third in fantasy points among all Flex players. Nacua is second in the NFL in targets (35) and leads the league in receptions (29). That equates to an 83% catch rate. The only reasonable offer for Nacua would be straight up for Jonathan Taylor.
Matthew Stafford is the fantasy QB18. He is not startable right now. The Rams’ offensive line has been good at reducing pressure in front of him. Stafford is still a top-10 quarterback in adjusted net yards per attempt. Monitor the veteran as a backup for bye weeks.
Offenses Trending Down
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are gaining yards, but not scoring points. They are 13th in yardage per game (338.7) and 31st in scoring (14).
Michael Penix Jr. has struggled in his first season as a starter. His completion rate is in the high 50s, and he has thrown only one touchdown in three weeks. Atlanta is midpack in quarterback pressure rate (33.9%), making excuses hard to find.
The Falcons are 28th in EPA/pass (-0.27). Drake London is the fantasy WR53. With Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud each scoring fewer than 10 total fantasy points on the season. You can’t start any of these players.
Bijan Robinson is the Falcons’ offense. As the fantasy RB4, he is averaging over five yards per carry to go with 14 receptions and a receiving touchdown. Robinson is accounting for a quarter of Atlanta’s total offense on 61 touches. He is the epitome of a bell-cow back. His usage is fantastic, with the only concern being injury due to the volume.
These trends will continue until Atlanta takes care of the ball and finds the end zone. They have converted only two of seven drives inside the 20 for touchdowns, and are a top-10 team in turnovers.
Houston Texans
The Texans’ offense has flopped after rebuilding its offensive line this offseason. They are 26th in yardage per game (172.3) and 32nd in scoring (12.7).
C.J. Stroud has simply been bad. He’s the fantasy QB26 with three interceptions and a passer rating of 76.9. His yards per attempt (6.7) are the worst of his career, and the Texans have dropped only one pass. Quality quarterback play is essential in the NFL, and Stroud must get it together to change this offense’s trajectory.
Nico Collins is the fantasy WR20 after an average draft position (ADP) of 12th overall this draft season. He’s been a trap for managers, somehow, while averaging 12.9 yards per catch with two touchdowns. All things considered, Collins is supremely talented. With this offense having nowhere to go but up, do not cut bait just yet.
Nick Chubb is currently the fantasy RB28, primarily due to a lack of opportunity. He ranks 26th at running back in attempts, with the Texans running a 60/40 split in favor of the pass. His usage makes him untouchable for fantasy managers.
The real story for the Texans is being 8-for-33 on third downs, with a 0% clip in the red zone. Enough said.
Players Trending Up
- Daniel Jones (QB – IND): Don’t let his stint with the Giants cloud 2025. The Colts’ offense has been arguably the best in the NFL to start. Daniel Jones has three rushing scores already.
- Caleb Williams (QB – CHI): Seven touchdowns to one interception out of the gate. Scoring with your arm at quarterback is always valuable to fantasy managers. Caleb Williams is a great pickup this week against the Raiders.
- Tre Tucker (WR – LV): Tied for the league lead in touchdown catches (four). Tre Tucker has 17 targets over the last two weeks. He’s becoming a favorite of Geno Smith.
Players Trending Down
- Jameson Williams (WR – DET): Eight receptions in three games. The catches are juicy, but not the volume. Well outside the top 50 in targets. Jameson Williams faces the Browns’ defense this week.
- Evan Engram (TE – DEN): Target share is similar to Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull. Evan Engram’s average depth of target (aDOT) sits at 3.3, with zero touchdowns.
- Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT): Jaylen Warren ranks in the top 15 in attempts, with only 132 rushing yards. The Steelers are 25th in running efficiency and 31st in rushing yardage per game (63).
Efficiency Statistics
| Team | PPG | YPG | EPA/ Play | EPA/ Pass | EPA/ Run | RZ Conv % | ANY/A | QB Pressure % | Sacks | Turnovers |
| Indianapolis Colts | 34.3 | 418.7 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.1 | 43.0% | 9.51 | 32.3% | 2 | 0 |
| Buffalo Bills | 34.0 | 420.0 | 0.2 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 66.7% | 8.30 | 20.7% | 4 | 0 |
| Detroit Lions | 34.3 | 394.3 | 0.19 | 0.35 | 0.02 | 68.8% | 8.39 | 29.4% | 4 | 1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 37.0 | 330.7 | 0.13 | 0.28 | -0.05 | 54.5% | 9.14 | 38.7% | 12 | 2 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 24.0 | 322.3 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 44.4% | 6.62 | 39.1% | 6 | 0 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 23.3 | 362.3 | 0.05 | 0.18 | -0.13 | 40.0% | 7.50 | 40.9% | 10 | 3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 20.0 | 315.7 | 0.04 | -0.02 | 0.12 | 50.0% | 5.75 | 27.8% | 6 | 1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 25.7 | 268.7 | 0.03 | -0.08 | 0.12 | 100.0% | 5.95 | 43.2% | 7 | 1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 21.3 | 300.0 | 0.03 | 0.13 | -0.07 | 63.6% | 7.78 | 40.4% | 7 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 24.3 | 363.7 | 0.02 | 0 | 0.04 | 46.2% | 7.13 | 33.0% | 5 | 3 |
| Washington Commanders | 26.7 | 354.0 | 0.02 | -0.04 | 0.1 | 75.0% | 6.63 | 30.7% | 8 | 1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 24.7 | 393.7 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.03 | 60.0% | 5.04 | 32.4% | 5 | 6 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 19.7 | 361.0 | -0.01 | 0.09 | -0.16 | 45.5% | 6.66 | 38.7% | 5 | 4 |
| Chicago Bears | 25.3 | 347.0 | -0.03 | 0.04 | -0.13 | 85.7% | 7.80 | 33.9% | 6 | 3 |
| New England Patriots | 20.0 | 346.0 | -0.04 | 0.07 | -0.22 | 54.5% | 6.33 | 37.7% | 12 | 6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 23.3 | 356.0 | -0.04 | -0.12 | 0.07 | 50.0% | 4.69 | 22.5% | 3 | 4 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 20.5 | 270.5 | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.05 | 27.8% | 4.50 | 53.8% | 13 | 3 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 27.8 | 332.3 | -0.05 | 0.1 | -0.17 | 31.5% | 8.22 | 64.3% | 6 | 6 |
| Miami Dolphins | 18.7 | 281.7 | -0.06 | -0.11 | 0.04 | 83.3% | 4.72 | 36.1% | 8 | 5 |
| Denver Broncos | 22.7 | 302.0 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.07 | 62.5% | 4.94 | 24.3% | 3 | 5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 24.0 | 247.0 | -0.09 | -0.04 | -0.14 | 87.5% | 5.86 | 28.9% | 7 | 3 |
| New Orleans Saints | 15.7 | 302.0 | -0.1 | -0.13 | -0.07 | 50.0% | 4.99 | 33.8% | 6 | 2 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 17.7 | 320.3 | -0.11 | -0.01 | -0.28 | 42.9% | 5.46 | 42.1% | 12 | 4 |
| New York Jets | 23.0 | 271.1 | -0.12 | -0.07 | -0.16 | 75.0% | 5.27 | 51.9% | 9 | 4 |
| Carolina Panthers | 20.7 | 277.0 | -0.13 | -0.2 | -0.02 | 62.5% | 4.24 | 34.9% | 5 | 6 |
| New York Giants | 17.3 | 339.3 | -0.13 | -0.14 | -0.13 | 20.0% | 5.60 | 39.8% | 7 | 3 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 14.0 | 338.7 | -0.16 | -0.27 | -0.02 | 28.6% | 4.80 | 33.9% | 4 | 4 |
| Houston Texans | 12.7 | 267.3 | -0.18 | -0.26 | -0.06 | 0.0% | 4.35 | 36.4% | 8 | 5 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 27.0 | 268.0 | -0.19 | -0.36 | -0.01 | 66.7% | 4.96 | 41.0% | 12 | 5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 15.3 | 290.0 | -0.22 | -0.33 | 0.01 | 71.4% | 3.63 | 38.7% | 6 | 5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 17.0 | 222.3 | -0.28 | -0.36 | -0.15 | 42.9% | 3.47 | 43.3% | 15 | 4 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 19.3 | 220.7 | -0.35 | -0.4 | -0.26 | 75.0% | 3.71 | 37.4% | 10 | 8 |
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