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Players to Buy
Can’t really do much with the Ravens but hold their guys. They will likely get destroyed again next week at home versus the Rams if they remain as injured as they currently are. The latest is that Lamar Jackson has an “outside shot” of playing in Week 6. Hopefully, Lamar Jackson can come healthy out of the Week 7 bye week.
But post-bye week…
It’s a SMASH spot for the Ravens offense – specifically with Derrick Henry. Bears/Dolphins. Sharp managers should be looking to buy low on Henry (presuming they have positive records and don’t need the King over the next few games).
Breece Hall played 62% of the snaps with Braelon Allen out. Isaiah Davis played 40% of the snaps. Hall did get “injured” after he fumbled toward the end of the first half but he returned to start the second half. Touches were still very much in favor of Hall over Davis (18-4). Hall also saw a goal-line carry from the 3-yard line in pursuit of his first TD score this season. Alas, stuffed for a 4-yard loss.
Even so, the bell cow usage and 100-plus yards from scrimmage for Hall make him a buy with Braelon Allen on IR (out for 8-12 weeks). After the Broncos…Hall will face the Panthers, Bengals before the bye week.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB – WAS)
Trust the process. In Bill we trust! As bad as my Trey Benson “buy” call aged (like spoiled milk), buying Croskey-Merritt aged like fine wine. Full takeover in Week 5. 47% snap share and drew the start. Nearly a flawless day for the super explosive rookie RB (aside from a lost fumble) as he averaged 7.9 yards per carry and 19.5 yards per reception. Totaled 111 rushing yards and scored two TDs.
Buy good RBs. Bears/Cowboys up next. Saddle up, Bill. No.1 schedule rest of season for RBs? The Washington Commanders.
Chris Rodriguez played 25% of the snaps, and so did Jeremy McNichols. C-Rob might be annoying in red-zone situations (out-carried JCM 4-2 in the red zone). 80% of his carries came inside the 14-yard line (at the end of the game). But JCM did at least score from the 5-yard line.
The universe is doing everything in it’s power to get TreyVeon Henderson more involved. Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled again. Antonio Gibson is going to miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Henderson continues to be a buy – even if the statistics say otherwise. With the backfield down to just 2 RBs…(with one having a serious fumbling problem) it’s not hard to see how this works out for the rookie RB. Buy.
In Week 5, Henderson played 50% of the snaps to Stevenson’s 52% snap share. Stevenson got the red-zone touches….but we know his role is on extremely thin ice.
Players to Sell
CMC is on pace for 442 touches through 5 weeks. What could go wrong? McCaffery’s receiving usage has been off the charts…but eventually the 49ers will get most of their starting WRs and TEs back. Consider that CMC has been bad as a rusher…right now is the time to flip him for MAX ROI. He is PFF’s 12th-lowest graded RB this season averaging 3.1 yards per carry with the NFL’s 9th-lowest success rate.
We love Cam Skattebo. He’s a fun player to cheer for. But the upcoming schedule is brutal. Eagles twice and a road game at the Broncos, wedged in between. With Tyrone Tracy also making his way back to the starting lineup (limited on Monday’s injury report)…we could see Skattebo’s role and production dip in the upcoming weeks. He is the darling of every football fan’s eye right now, but he still plays for the New York Giants. He also lost a fumble in Week 5 that was returned for a TD. Brian Daboll isn’t always kind to RBs that put the ball on the ground. And the way that he just invites contact…well, I’m not exactly confident that will necessarily last over an entire NFL season.
Alvin Kamara is still seeing red-zone touches and targets, so he still holds value. But you’d be lying as Kamara manager if you weren’t just a bit concerned about Kendre Miller‘s increased involvement.
Miller led the Saints in carries in Week 5, playing 39% of the snaps to Kamara’s 56% snap rate. Miller was also more efficient, carrying the ball 10 times for 41 yards.
But what was even more concerning was Taysom Hill stepping back into a role with 6 carries of his own on just 9 snaps played (14%). He touched the ball on 7 of his 9 offensive snaps (including a rush at the Giants’ 12-yard line).
Kamara’s targets were present here in Week 5 (6), but this number has fluctuated weekly. The Patriots’ defense has also been tough on RBs. And frankly, the Saints offense just isn’t good enough to support two fantasy RBs, let alone three different players seeing carries. Put Kamara on the trade block.
The Browns were a tough matchup for Jordan Mason. Luckily, he scored and only fumbled once. Even so…Minnesota is on a bye this week. Then it’s the Eagles/Chargers/Lions. By the time the schedule eases up and the offensive line gets healthy, Aaron Jones might also return. Put him on the block and see if you can get any decent returns.
The Bears’ rushing attack is anemic. I’d anticipate some kind of change to this RB room post-bye week. Swift (66% snap rate in Week 4) is being his uber-inefficient self from last season. Sell before he loses his job outright. Through four games, D’Andre Swift has the 10th-worst rushing success rate at 3.3 yards per carry (Bottom-15 PFF rushing grade). Use the TD he scored in Week 4 as a reason to ship him off.
Tyjae Spears made his return to the lineup in Week 5, but Tony Pollard remained the bell cow. 73% snap share to Spears’ 25% snap share. However, given this was Spears’ first game back – it’s not surprising that he was eased back in. He got his touch in the middle of the first quarter. Cam Ward also said (according to the game broadcast team) that “Superman’s back” when referencing the return of Spears to the lineup.
With another touch running back matchup – the Raiders – on deck for the Titans, I’d still be trying to get out of the Pollard business. After LV, it’s Patriots, Colts and Chargers before a Week 10 bye week.
If you didn’t sell David Montgomery after the Ravens game, now is the time to move him after the Lions played the Bengals. It was a great spot for him (65 rushing yards on 18 carries and 1 rushing score with another TD through the air), and the Lions fed him extra carries because it was a homecoming for the Cincinnati native
Because at this point and the rest of the season, he will be very TD-dependent. And the next two matchups are against tougher run defenses (KC and TB).
We all wanted to know how the Arizona Cardinals’ backfield would shake out in the wake of Trey Benson‘s injury. I wrote last week about how heavy I was on the Michael Carter side of the backfield over Emari Demercado. I was proven correct. In a game where the Cardinals benefitted from mostly positive game script…until things got really off the rails, Carter was the workhorse for Arizona. 18 carries for 51 yards, and 5 catches for 22 yards on 5 targets. He led the backfield with a 57% snap rate – playing 20 more snaps (39 vs 19) compared to Demercado. Demercado had one touch in the first half (zero targets).
Does this mean Demercado’s value is nuked? Not entirely. Again, this matchup for Carter was perfect for him to gobble volume. Arizona won’t always be a touchdown-favorite at home. And FWIW, Demercado did rip off a big run for a 72-yard TD call…but it was overturned as a fumble out of the end zone…resulting in a touchback. Woof. At least in the short-term…don’t expect much from Demercado who might need to change his zip code to Jonathan Gannon’s dog house.
Demercado will have more opportunities in Cardinals’ games with negative game scripts. That being said, Carter is still the Cardinals’ RB to own until Benson returns. Worth mentioning that Zonovan Knight also scored a rushing TD (as he also earned two red-zone carries to Carter’s two red-zone carries).
Even though Carter was the lead guy…I do think there is some semblance of this being a committee of sorts ROS. Gannon was noncommittal about Carter being the starter again in Week 6, even after his blow-up on the sideline due to the Demercado fumble/touchback.
Given the upcoming matchups – Colts, Packers, and a bye week – I think Carter might be a sharp “sell-high” after you added him off waivers this past week. Keep in mind that Carter’s always going to have an expired shelf life with Benson coming back at some point in the second half of the season. Flip him to a desperate manager looking for RB production right now. Because Carter was very inefficient in his first start against a beatable Titans defense. Just 2.8 yards per carry and a 28% success rate.
According to the FantasyPros SOS tool…Arizona’s RB schedule ROS is bottom-8.
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