Last week was my best week of bold predictions to date. I entered Week 8 with a 4-17 record in this recurring article, and went 2-1, bringing my ledger to 6-18. A .250 batting average on bold predictions is still too low for my liking, but I’ll attempt to improve that with another stellar week.
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Week 9 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
Medium
Alec Pierce Will be a Top-36 WR in Half-PPR
Alec Pierce is the WR40 in expert consensus rankings (ECR) for half-PPR formats this week. He is also only tied for the WR47 in half-PPR points per game (7.9) this season.
However, the Steelers are an ideal matchup for Pierce to strut his stuff. Pittsburgh has allowed the sixth-most half-PPR points per game (31.3) to wide receivers this season.
Furthermore, Pierce will get a schematic boost from facing the Steelers. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Pittsburgh has played man coverage at the fifth-highest rate (37.4%) and single-high coverage at the third-highest rate (63.0%) this season.
Pierce has torched both man and single-high coverage. He has 0.29 targets per route run (TPRR), 2.85 yards per route run (YPRR) and 0.36 half-PPR points per route run versus man. He has 0.33 TPRR, 4.30 YPRR and 0.52 half-PPR points per route run against single-high coverage this year. Pierce should make the most of the matchup and finish as a top-36 WR in half-PPR formats this week.
Hot
Travis Etienne Won’t Finish as a Top-24 RB in Half-PPR
The Jaguars are coming out of their bye, but Travis Etienne wasn’t in good form after a hot start to the season. From Week 5 through Week 7, Etienne was tied for the RB35 in half-PPR points per game (6.9) with Nick Chubb.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Etienne put up the following stats in that three-game stretch:
- 32 rush attempts
- 120 rushing yards (40.0 per game)
- 3.75 yards per carry
- 2.41 yards before contact per attempt
- 1.34 yards after contact per attempt
- 0 explosive runs (runs of 15+ yards)
- 39.0% route participation rate
- 0.20 targets per route run
- 3.7 targets per game
- 8 receptions (2.7 per game)
- 48 receiving yards (16 per game)
- 0 touchdowns
- 11.9 expected half-PPR points per game
Etienne’s inefficiency before the bye could open the door for Bhayshul Tuten to get a post-bye rookie bump. Even if Tuten doesn’t outright overtake Etienne on the depth chart, the speedy rookie cutting into Etienne’s opportunities would crush the inefficient veteran’s fantasy outlook. Thus, a top-24 finish might be tough to come by this week, despite an RB17 ranking.
Atomic
Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes Will Combine For 600+ Yards & 6+ Touchdowns
We project Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes to combine for 555.9 yards (passing + rushing) and 4.5 touchdowns. Those would be fun outputs, but history says the battle of superstar quarterbacks should produce more fireworks.
According to StatHead, Allen has tallied 2,300 passing yards (255.6 per game), 19 passing touchdowns, 487 rushing yards (54.1 per game) and five rushing touchdowns in nine games against the Chiefs since 2020. In those contests, Mahomes logged 2,465 passing yards (273.9 per game), 19 passing touchdowns, 262 rushing yards (29.1 per game) and three rushing touchdowns.
So, Allen and Mahomes have combined for 5,514 yards (612.7 per game) and 46 touchdowns (5.1 per game). The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites against the Bills in Buffalo, and the game’s total is a massive 52.5 points, a recipe for a shootout. Allen and Mahomes merely have to have an average performance against one another to hit the yardage half of this bold prediction. If the game shoots out as expected, they can tally six or more combined touchdowns.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
