I opened the season by going 1-8 on my bold predictions through Week 3, but I notched another win last week. Tetairoa McMillan finished outside of the top 24 wide receivers last week. Unfortunately, Keon Coleman wasn’t a top-36 wideout, and TreVeyon Henderson scored a touchdown but didn’t reach 70 scrimmage yards. Thus, my season line is now 2-10. While these are bold predictions, my batting average is still a tick low for my liking. I’ll attempt to improve my average with the following three bold predictions for Week 5.
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Week 5 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
Medium
Dalton Kincaid Will Finish as a Top-5 Tight End
Dalton Kincaid is the TE8 in half-PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR) this week. He’s the TE5 in half-PPR points per game (10.7), and seemingly every pundit is yelling from the rooftops to sell him high. The widely held concerns about Kincaid’s playing time are valid.
The Bills also utilize Dawson Knox and blocking rookie tight end Jackson Hawes. As a result, per the data suite at Fantasy Points, Kincaid has only a 55.9% route participation rate. Still, Kincaid’s other underlying data is stellar.
Among 38 tight ends with at least 50 routes run, Kincaid is tied for the fourth-highest average depth of target (8.3-yard aDOT), is fifth in air yards share (17.3%), is tied for 19th in target share (14.6%), is tied for eighth in targets per route run (0.23), is third in yards per route run (2.24), is tied for first in end-zone targets (three) and is tied for fourth in expected half-PPR points per route run (0.42).
Kincaid is making the most of his opportunities, is used vertically and has a favorable matchup this week. The Patriots have allowed the 10th-most half-PPR points per game (12.2) to tight ends this season. Finally, the Bills have the second-highest implied total this week, providing Kincaid with touchdown potential if Buffalo scores at their betting expectations. The Patriots could push the Bills into a shootout.
Hot
Tetairoa McMillan Will Exceed 13 Half-PPR Points
I was down on Tetairoa McMillan last week, but I mentioned his underlying data indicated better days would come. The better days are set to start this week.
The Dolphins are tied for the eighth-fewest half-PPR points per game (23) allowed to wideouts this season. However, according to SumerSports, Miami has yielded the second-most expected points added (EPA) per pass. Additionally, Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks them 31st in coverage.
As for McMillan, his underlying data looks great. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, McMillan has the following stats (with ranks among 83 wideouts with at least 75 routes this year in parentheses):
- 89% route participation (15th)
- 39.5% air yards share (tied for 15th)
- 22% target share (23rd)
- 0.23 targets per route run (tied for 28th)
- 29.3% first-read rate (15th)
- 18 receptions (tied for 21st)
- 69.5 receiving yards per game (13th)
- 1.90 yards per route run (tied for 26th)
- 15.5 expected half-PPR points per game (tied for 13th)
We project McMillan to score 11 half-PPR points this week, but I project him closer to his 15.5 expected half-PPR points per game in a cushy matchup and clear 13 half-PPR points.
Atomic
David Montgomery Will Finish as a Top-12 Running Back
Thursday Night Football likely produced two top-12 running backs in half-PPR formats, leaving only 10 more spots within the top 12 for Week 5. David Montgomery is the RB19 in half-PPR ECR this week, but I believe he can crack the top 12.
The Lions are commanding 10-point favorites against the pitiful Bengals. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Lions have run on 66% of their 97 plays when leading by at least three points this year, excluding the final two minutes in the first half. Jahmyr Gibbs should smash this week, but there’s room for Montgomery to feast, too.
Montgomery is running well. Among 43 running backs with at least 25 rush attempts this year, Montgomery is 18th in rushing yards per game (61.3), fourth in yards per carry (5.70), 26th in yards before contact per attempt (1.81), first in yards after contact per attempt (3.88), tied for eighth in explosive run rate (7%), tied for 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.16) and tied for 14th in team’s run rate inside the 5-yard line (66.7%).
Montgomery has a mouthwatering matchup this week. The Bengals have yielded the second-most half-PPR points per game (28.5) to running backs this season. Finally, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Cincinnati has coughed up the second-most rushing yards per game (123.5) to running backs. Montgomery should run through their faces and pile up fantasy points in bunches this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
