We’re about to be halfway through the season, and I’m running out of creative ways to introduce this fantasy football trade article. Fantasy trades are awesome, but they’re often hard to pull off. I’ll be using FantasyCalc.com‘s trade values and list of most-traded players, both of which are based 100% on real trades. That’s all you need to know; let’s get started.
- Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
3 Fantasy Football Trades to Propose Week 8
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI) for Borderline First-Round Value
Currently, Saquon Barkley is the single most traded player in fantasy football, on the move in over 5% of leagues in FantasyCalc’s sample. With that new data, his trade-based value has fallen… to be the 14th overall player. And, I hate to say it, but that is simply too high for the reigning Offensive Player of the Year.
I was skeptical of Barkley coming into the season. And some of my fears have come true: The Eagles’ defense and offensive line have regressed, and Barkley isn’t hitting on huge runs as often at the same absurd rate that he did last season. But things are even worse than that. Barkley isn’t just not hitting on huge runs, but he’s also one of the least efficient backs in the entire league. Out of 55 qualified running backs, Barkley ranks 48th in expected points added (EPA) per rush, 48th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) rush grade and 50th in yards per carry.
Without elite efficiency, the flaws in Barkley’s usage come to the forefront. He ranks 20th among running backs in targets per game — not terrible but certainly not elite. Thanks to the tush push, he also has just six carries inside the 5-yard line. Again, that’s solid (just under one per game), but it’s not enough to justify considering Barkley an elite fantasy asset. This is all showing up on the fantasy scoresheet, as he ranks just 18th among backs with 12.1 half-PPR points per game.
Of course, trading a player like Barkley, especially while underperforming, is a tricky prospect. You probably won’t be able to get a truly elite asset in return, and you don’t want to fall into the trap of trading a nickel for a couple of pennies. But there’s probably at least one or two managers in every league who still believe in Barkley as an elite fantasy back. If you have him on your roster, you should be trying to identify them — and sooner rather than later.
Rico Dowdle (RB – CAR) for Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
It will probably feel bad to click the “send” button on this one. But Rico Dowdle is the second-most traded player in fantasy leagues this week, and this is a very realistic base upon which to build a trade offer. Rhamondre Stevenson is ranked eight spots lower than Dowdle on FantasyCalc, but I would rather have the Patriots running back straight-up.
Unless you truly believe that Dowdle has suddenly emerged as a difference-making talent — possible, but unlikely — the most important things to consider here are team situation and usage. And both fronts seem to favor Stevenson. In terms of situation, the Patriots’ offense is undeniably better than the Panthers’ offense. This is offset to a non-negligible degree by the fact that Carolina’s run-blocking is much better than New England’s, but I’d still rather have a back playing next to Drake Maye behind a bad offensive line than next to Bryce Young/Andy Dalton behind a good one.
Meanwhile, Stevenson is the Patriots’ clear bell-cow back. Much to the dismay of fantasy managers, TreVeyon Henderson is a non-factor in New England’s offense, and that doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon. In two weeks without Antonio Gibson, Stevenson has averaged a 74% snap share, a 66% running back rush share and a 6% target share on a 57% route participation rate. His target share will likely trend up, given that route share, and that running back rush share is slightly depressed by some garbage time carries for Terrell Jennings in Week 7. Overall, this usage isn’t elite, but it’s very solid.
Dowdle, on the other hand, is stuck in a 50/50 committee with Chuba Hubbard. In Week 7, Hubbard’s first game back from a calf injury, the Panthers’ coaching staff had their running back duo alternate exactly drive by drive. And it was actually Hubbard who got the first drive, so if anything, the split is 51% to 49% in his favor.
Dowdle has looked more impressive in recent weeks, so there’s a chance he eventually claims the lead role in Carolina’s backfield. But, at best, he will likely be the RB1A in a committee, essentially what Stevenson already is. There’s no huge win potential here, but this simple swap of backs could turn a committee Flex option into a solid RB3 for the rest of the season.
George Pickens (WR – DAL) for Rome Odunze (WR – CHI)
Of the top 10 most-traded players this week, only one isn’t a running back. And that player is Rome Odunze, the Bears’ second-year receiver. Odunze started the season red hot, with 17.4 points per game over the first four weeks. The Bears had their bye in Week 5, and he has scored 4.2 and 4.1 points in the last two weeks.
I see this as a chance to buy low on an ascending young star. For the season, Odunze is averaging a 24% target share and a 42% air yards share in the Bears’ offense. That’s excellent usage, and it hasn’t even gotten much worse during his two-game slump (17% target share and 43% air yards share).
Meanwhile, George Pickens is on fire. He’s the WR4 overall in half-PPR formats, and he seems to make at least one incredible highlight catch every week. However, we can’t ignore the sheep in the room: His numbers are dramatically worse with CeeDee Lamb healthy. In four games without Lamb, Pickens averaged 21.2 points per game on a 24% target share and a 45% air yards share. In the three games he has played alongside one of the league’s best receivers, he has averaged just 10 points on a 16% target share and a 32% air yards share.
Honestly, once the numbers are laid out, it feels as though this trade shouldn’t even be possible. But, according to FantasyCalc’s values (which, again, are based on real trades), Pickens is actually one slot above Oduzne in value. Honestly, I’d be willing to add a bit of value to make this move happen, but you shouldn’t have to.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.