Fantasy Basketball Draft Advice: 7 Overvalued Players to Avoid

The key to a winning fantasy basketball season is knowing which players to target — and more importantly, which ones to leave on the board.

To help you navigate the draft board, this article pinpoints seven overvalued players. We’ll examine each player’s past statistics and their new roles to ensure you’re not caught making a costly mistake. By making these strategic moves, you’ll put yourself in the best position to win your league.

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Overvalued Players to Avoid

Trae Young (PG – ATL) | ADP: 11 (Yahoo)/11 (ESPN)

Trae Young finished the 2024-25 season leading the league with 11.6 assists per game while carrying an impressive 29.5% usage rate. He averaged 24.2 points, but it came with a career-worst 41.1% from the field, 34% from three and a league-high 4.7 turnovers per game. Efficiency remained a major concern — and that issue could easily carry over into this season.

Jalen Johnson, limited to just 36 games last year due to a torn labrum, is back healthy and expected to absorb a larger share of the offense. The Hawks also added Kristaps Porzingis in the offseason, another high-usage player who will command touches. Young will still be the centerpiece of Atlanta’s attack, but with Johnson’s return and Porzingis joining the mix, a dip in usage and overall production seems likely — especially if his shooting struggles continue. He’s better valued as a late second or early third-round target rather than a first-round pick.

LeBron James (SF, PF – LAL) | ADP: 20 (Yahoo)/10 (ESPN)

LeBron James, who continues to defy Father Time, once again showed during the 2024-25 season that he can control games on both ends despite two decades of heavy mileage. He averaged 24.4 points on 51.3% shooting, along with 7.8 rebounds and 8.2 assists, maintaining an elite level of play that few in league history have matched at his age.

However, James turns 41 in December, and the Lakers are expected to take a more cautious approach with his workload. After logging 70 games and 35 minutes per contest last season, a slight reduction to around 32 minutes feels realistic as Los Angeles prioritizes keeping him fresh for a postseason push. News just came out that he will also miss the start of the season (3-4 weeks) due to sciatica.

With Luka Doncic now in the fold, James will spend more time operating off the ball, taking advantage of his versatility as a cutter, secondary playmaker and post scorer rather than initiating every possession. The shift should help preserve his efficiency and longevity, but could result in modest dips in counting stats compared to past seasons.

All of this makes it difficult to justify James as a top-10 fantasy pick in ESPN drafts, especially with players like Karl-Anthony Towns, Devin Booker and Tyrese Maxey with lower average draft positions (ADPs). While he remains a high-impact player, a fourth-round selection may better match James’ expected role and workload.

Ivica Zubac (C – LAC) | ADP: 36 (Yahoo)/23 (ESPN)

Ivica Zubac had a career year in 2024-25, posting career highs in points (16.8), rebounds (12.6) and assists (2.7) per game. While he remains a key piece in the Los Angeles Clippers’ frontcourt, his role is set to shift with the additions of Brook Lopez and John Collins. Both players can stretch the floor and will likely reduce Zubac’s opportunities in certain matchups.

The return of Kawhi Leonard to full health, along with the addition of Bradley Beal, may further limit his scoring chances, as the offense now features more high-usage perimeter players. Zubac is still expected to anchor the paint and remain a strong rebounder.

Zubac should be avoided in rounds two and three but is worth targeting in rounds five or six, offering teams a reliable rebounder and efficient field-goal scorer.

Jimmy Butler III (SG, SF, PF – GSW) | ADP: 49 (Yahoo)/50 (ESPN)

Jimmy Butler appeared in 30 games with the Golden State Warriors last season, averaging 17.9 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists in 32.7 minutes per game. While those numbers are solid, his usage and durability remain concerns.

Butler is already dealing with a minor ankle issue to start camp and hasn’t played more than 65 games in a season since 2018-19. His 20.4% usage rate with Golden State was modest, and with Steph Curry and Jonathan Kuminga expected to anchor the offense, his opportunities could remain limited.

Jordan Poole (PG, SG – NOR) | ADP: 72 (Yahoo)/59 (ESPN)

Jordan Poole averaged a career-high 20.5 points with the Washington Wizards last season, along with three rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. While those numbers stand out, a noticeable dip in production should be expected as he transitions to a deeper New Orleans roster.

Poole will now share offensive touches with Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III, both of whom averaged over 22 points per game, which will naturally limit his scoring volume. Additionally, Dejounte Murray (Achilles) is expected to return in January, likely cutting further into Poole’s minutes and usage.

Poole’s talent isn’t in question, but his fantasy outlook takes a hit with reduced opportunity on a deeper roster. He may be on a better team, but managers should temper expectations and avoid chasing last season’s production.

RJ Barrett (SG, SF, PF – TOR) | ADP: 83 (Yahoo)/73 (ESPN)

RJ Barrett led the Toronto Raptors in scoring last season with 21.1 points per game, but that number is likely to drop with both Immanuel Quickley and Brandon Ingram healthy. With Ingram now in the mix and Scottie Barnes emerging as the primary playmaker, Barrett’s offensive role will shift toward more off-ball responsibilities. Expect him to generate much of his production through cuts, transition opportunities and spot-up looks rather than creating his own shot.

While Barrett will remain an efficient secondary scorer, his fantasy ceiling takes a hit in a lineup featuring multiple high-usage players. He should still provide solid scoring and efficiency, but managers should temper expectations.

Daniel Gafford (C – DAL) | ADP: 156 (Yahoo)/77 (ESPN)

There’s no denying Daniel Gafford’s efficiency — he shot 70.2% from the field last season while averaging 12.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 1.8 blocks in just 21.5 minutes per game. However, his fantasy outlook takes a hit this year with Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II both healthy and expected to handle most of the frontcourt minutes.

P.J. Washington and Naji Marshall could also see more time at power forward this season, as Cooper Flagg is taking over at small forward, which would push Davis to play more minutes at center, leaving Gafford with fewer opportunities.

While his per-minute production remains strong, a reduced workload will cap Gfford’s fantasy value. On top of that, Gafford is dealing with a sprained ankle that could impact his availability to open the season. He has missed 25+ games in three of the past four years. Between health concerns and a crowded frontcourt, Gafford is a risky fantasy investment.

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