Let’s take a look at some of the players with the largest standard deviation between high and low expert ranks in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR). Which players are the safest starts, and who poses the biggest risk to your fantasy football lineup in Week 5?
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Week 5 Risky Fantasy Football Starts
Darren Waller (TE – MIA) vs. Carolina Panthers
- Highest Rank: 11
- Lowest Rank: 19
Darren Waller finally made his debut and had three receptions on four targets for 27 yards and two touchdowns. The 2020 season was the last time Waller had a multi-touchdown game. Is this debut a sign of beautiful things to come, and can we truly trust Waller as a starter?
If this were any other veteran on a new team, we’d buy into it. With Waller, we have valid reasons for our lack of trust. Waller didn’t actually have heavy usage in Week 4. He played fewer than 30% of the snaps. The Dolphins have been very cautious with Waller, and a slow ramp-up in snaps makes sense.
A limitation in snaps means Waller is likely touchdown-dependent. However, with the loss of Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins may need to increase Waller’s usage immediately. As we saw with Jonnu Smith in 2024, athletic tight ends can thrive in Mike McDaniel’s system. Waller is a risky start this week until we see increased usage, but he’s a streaming option with tight ends like Tucker Kraft and Kyle Pitts on a bye.
My Projected Finish: TE14
Rachaad White (RB – TB) vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Highest Rank: 19
- Lowest Rank: 38
Running backs have taken massive hits this week, and with Bucky Irving likely out this week, White steps in as the lead back. We’re in very familiar territory with White, as the starting job belonged to him before Bucky Irving arrived. White is a very capable three-down back with solid receiving upside. The receiving upside is key, as success on the ground has typically been a struggle for White.
That lack of upside on the ground makes White a risky start this week against a Seattle defense that is fairly solid against the run. Aside from one big game from Christian McCaffrey, they’ve held starting running backs to fewer than 50 rushing yards every week. The Seahawks’ defense is truly coming into its own, and for White to succeed in fantasy this week, he must have solid receiving work. There’s also the possibility that Sean Tucker contributes on the ground as well. The matchup increases risk, but White remains a low-end RB2 or Flex play due to bye week and injury issues.
My Projected Finish: RB24
Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) vs. Detroit Lions
- Highest Rank: 4
- Lowest Rank: 19
Last week, I talked about Chase Brown as one of the riskiest plays of the week, and the results were underwhelming (as expected). However, Brown wasn’t alone in subpar production. In back-to-back weeks, Ja’Marr Chase hasn’t reached double-digit fantasy points. Aside from the offensive explosion in Week 2 against Jacksonville, Chase has failed to finish higher than WR41 in PPR. That is frustrating for fantasy managers who continue to roll out Chase as their WR1, only to wish they had started Marvin Mims Jr. instead.
The Bengals’ offense as a whole is struggling, and Jake Browning is failing to produce numbers that can support any successful fantasy asset, throwing for fewer than 150 yards in each of the past two weeks. This week’s matchup against Detroit feels like a setup for another underwhelming performance. However, there is some upside. Jayden Reed, Rome Odunze and Rashod Bateman all performed very well against Detroit — granted, with far better quarterbacks. Chase is an extremely risky play this week, but remains a start-worthy option.
My Projected Finish: WR13
More Risky Starts
Week 5 Safe Fantasy Football Starts
Woody Marks (RB – HOU) vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Highest Rank: 13
- Lowest Rank: 25
We haven’t gotten the official word from the Texans that Woody Marks is their true No. 1 RB, but we’re running with it. Marks has seen an increase in snaps every single week and finally surpassed Nick Chubb in Week 4. Marks has flat-out outperformed Chubb, and it’s no coincidence that the offense looked far more competent with Marks leading the way.
While it may feel uncomfortable to truly trust a running back who hasn’t officially been dubbed as the lead back, we’ve got the benefit of a matchup against a Baltimore defense that is hurt and flailing. The Ravens are the friendliest matchup in the league, allowing over 30 fantasy points to opposing running backs per game. While that number was definitely boosted by outstanding performances from David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, we’ve still seen productive fantasy outings from other backfields. Marks is a trustworthy Flex option this week.
My Projected Finish: RB19
Chris Olave (WR – NO) vs. New York Giants
- Highest Rank: 20
- Lowest Rank: 27
Instinctually, you might not think of Chris Olave as a safe start, but if you’re looking for a guaranteed 10 fantasy points in PPR, Olave is your man. Through the first three weeks, Olave had double-digit targets in each game, providing an excellent floor in PPR. In Week 4, the Saints’ pass volume came down significantly, and as a result, targets dipped for Olave.
However, Olave was able to salvage his day with a touchdown and still reached 10 fantasy points. Whether the matchup is a complete blowout or surprisingly close, Olave is the clear first look in the receiving corps and ultimately a reliable start. While he lacks upside, he has an extremely safe floor. This week, he has a matchup against a Giants’ defense that has been very friendly to wide receivers. Olave is a safe plug-and-play, especially with multiple teams on a bye.
My Projected Finish: WR25
Hunter Henry (TE – NE) vs. Buffalo Bills
- Highest Rank: 5
- Lowest Rank: 7
Consistency in targets is a bit of an issue for Hunter Henry, but his production has been strong. Outside of one poor performance against Miami, Henry has had a minimum of 10 fantasy points in PPR, three top-15 finishes and one overall TE1 performance.
This week’s matchup against Buffalo is very intriguing. The Bills have been winning, but they’ve played very much on par with every team they’ve faced. They haven’t been a particularly good matchup for tight ends, but Henry is operating as the first look in this offense. Henry has 24 targets on the season, while Stefon Diggs has 22, Kayshon Boutte has 15 and DeMario Douglas has just 13. Diggs could be on the rise, but at the very least, Henry should remain the second option in the offense, making him an extremely safe play at tight end.
My Projected Finish: TE5
More Safe Starts
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