Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Jordan Addison has been on a heater since his return to the field in Week 4, with at least 15.1 fantasy points in each game as the WR7 in fantasy points per game. He is tied for second on the team in red zone targets with Justin Jefferson (six each). Addison has a 20.3% target share with a 34.6% air-yard share, 94.3 receiving yards per game (2.38 yards per route run), and a 27.5% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Bolts have reverted to a two-high heavy approach with the fourth-highest rate of the coverage structure (62.5%). Against two high, Addison’s target share has skyrocketed to 25.9% with 3.34 yards per route run and a team-leading 36.1% first-read share. Addison can excel this week against a secondary that, since Week 4, has ranked 15th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
Keenan Allen is the WR10 in fantasy points per game. Yep, you read that correctly. Allen is having a renaissance season back with the Bolts. He has a 22.9% target share with 62.1 receiving yards per game (1.92 yards per route run), and a 25.1% first-read share. He ranks fourth in the NFL in red zone targets. This week, he faces a Minnesota pass defense that has the highest two-high rate in the NFL (70.3%). Against two high, his target share has remained stable at 22.3% (tied for the team lead) with 1.94 yards per route run and a 24.3% first-read share. Minnesota is a wonderful matchup for Allen, as they have allowed the highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Troy Franklin is the WR45 in fantasy points per game with three top-36 wide receiver finishes in weekly scoring (WR7, WR36, WR34). Franklin has high value roles in the Denver offense as he’s third on the team in deep targets and is fifth in the NFL in red zone targets. Franklin has a 70.7% route share with a 17.6% target share, 38.4 receiving yards per game (1.36 yards per route run), and a 19% first-read share. This week he faces a Dallas secondary that in Weeks 1-6 had the ninth-highest two high rate (58.5%). Against two high, Franklin’s first-read share has increased to 20.8%. His downfield role could come in handy this week against a pass defense that has allowed the most deep passing yards per game and the most deep passing touchdowns. Dallas has the most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Marvin Mims is the WR57 in fantasy points per game, but he has two top-24 weekly finishes this season (WR9, WR24) and is a viable flex play this week. Mims has a 47.5% route share with a 12.1% target share, 33.4 receiving yards per game (1.76 yards per route run), and a 16.1% first-read share. This week he faces a Dallas secondary that in Weeks 1-6 had the ninth-highest two-high rate (58.5%). Against two high, he has a 13.9% target share, 1.16 yards per route run, and an 18.2% first-read share. The drop in efficiency is notable, but he could make up for that this week with his downfield role. Mims leads the team with 11 deep targets. Dallas has allowed the most deep passing yards per game and the most deep passing touchdowns. Dallas has the most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Mims could have a splash play or two this week and easily pay off as a flex in a high-scoring game environment.
Kayshon Boutte is the WR36 in fantasy points per game, but he’s been a volatile flex play this season. He has three weeks as a top-24 wide receiver (WR17, WR4, WR24), but he also has four games this season where he finished outside the top 50 wide receivers in scoring. Boutte has an 11.8% target share (17.2 aDOT) with 2.03 yards per route run and a 14% first-read share. He leads the team with eight deep targets while only seeing one red zone target. This week, he faces a Cleveland pass defense that has the third-highest rate of single high (61.2%). Against single high, Boutte has seen his target share increase to 15.5% with 2.30 yards per route run and a 15.5% first-read share. Boutte’s downfield role might not hit this week, though, against a Cleveland secondary that ranks 18th in deep completion rate and has limited offenses to the fourth-fewest deep passing yards per game. Boutte is a dice roll flex play that offers a nice ceiling, but he has an equally low floor. The Browns have allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Romeo Doubs is the WR27 in fantasy points per game with four top-36 wide receiver weekly finishes this season (WR35, WR3, WR30, WR25). Doubs has a 20.5% target share with a 37.2% air-yard share, 51 receiving yards per game (1.99 yards per route run), and a 25% first-read share. He leads the team with seven red zone targets (tied) and is second in deep targets (six). This week, he faces a Steelers’ secondary that has utilized single high at the second-highest rate (61.9%). Against single high, Doubs leads the team with a 22.2% target share with 2.52 yards per route run and a team-leading 28.8% first-read share. Pittsburgh has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Doubs should smash.
Darnell Mooney has only played in three full games this season and hasn’t had more than 9.8 PPR points in any game. He has two red zone targets and three deep targets this season. This could be the week to get Mooney in as a flex play. He has a 15.6% target share (14.8 aDOT), 1.39 yards per route run, and a 20% first-read share. The Miami secondary has been a turnstile, though, allowing the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Even with limited volume, Mooney could have a nice day.
Last week, Tez Johnson had a 74.1% route share with a 14% target share, a 19.3% air-yard share, 58 receiving yards (1.45 yards per route run), and a 17.2% first-read share. He had one red zone target and two deep targets. This week, he’ll face a Saints’ pass defense that has utilized single high at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (59.7%). Over the last two weeks, against single high, Johnson has had an 18% target per route run rate, 2.06 yards per route run, and a 17.9% first-read share. Johnson will likely be running on the perimeter for most of his snaps this week (52.4-60% out wide over the last three games). He’s a solid flex play with upside this week against a Saints secondary that has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Elic Ayomanor‘s star has dimmed with Cam Ward struggling in his rookie season. Ayomanor is the WR64 in fantasy points per game. He has topped 50 receiving yards only once this season and hasn’t finished as a top-36 wide receiver in weekly scoring since Week 3 (against Indy). Maybe he can recapture some of that early-season magic this week, but it’s fine if you’re skeptical of that like me. Ayomanor has a 15.7% target share, 32.1 receiving yards per game (1.09 yards per route run), and a 19.9% first-read share. Indy has utilized single high with 51.2-62.5% of their defensive snaps in four of seven games, and the last time these two teams met, they deployed it with 55.6% of their snaps. Against single high, Ayomanor’s yards per route run has increased to 1.54, and his first-read share has bumped to 20.8%. Ayomanor is flex viable this week against an Indy secondary that has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
I was very bullish about Alec Pierce‘s prospects last week against the Chargers’ single high coverage. This week, I’m more bearish about his outlook. The Titans have the third-highest rate of two high (59.4%). Against two high, Pierce has only a 9.2% target share, 0.85 yards per route run, and a 10.9% first-read share. Pierce has a few outs this week that could allow him to pay off despite possibly limited volume. Pierce leads the team with eight deep targets, and the Titans have allowed the second-highest completion rate and fifth-highest passer rating on downfield targets. Tennessee also can’t cover perimeter wide receivers, allowing the third-highest PPR points per target. Pierce is a dice roll flex play that could yield decent results this week if he and Indiana Jones can hook up on a deep target or two in Week 8.
Sit’em
Since Week 3, Matthew Golden has been the WR41 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 15.3% target share with 58.3 receiving yards per game (2.35 yards per route run) with a 20.7% first-read share. During this stretch, he has had two red zone targets and five deep targets. This week, he faces a Steelers’ secondary that has utilized single high at the second-highest rate (61.9%). Since Week 3, against single high, Golden has been an afterthought with an 8.1% target share, 1.12 yards per route run, and a 9.5% first-read share. Sit Golden this week if you can. He could still have a solid game, but the volume won’t be massive. The matchup goodness will have to carry him, as Pittsburgh’s corners have been struggling. Pittsburgh has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
With Dillon Gabriel under center, Jerry Jeudy has had a 19.4% target share, a 35.2% air-yard share, 25 receiving yards per game (0.74 yards per route run), and a 25.7% first-read share. In those three games, he has had four red zone targets and two deep targets. Jeudy hasn’t finished with more than 43 receiving yards in any of those contests and outside the top 70 wide receivers in weekly scoring twice. The matchup is good for Jeudy this week, but that has been the case for plenty of weeks this season, and he’s done little to nothing. If you’re stuck flexing Jeudy, I get it, but I’ll sit him in most leagues. The Patriots have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers this season. Jeudy opened this week with a DNP (knee).
Since Week 2, Keon Coleman hasn’t surpassed 45 receiving yards in any game and has only once seen more than six targets. Coleman has only two red zone targets across his last five games. Since Week 5, Carolina has utilized two high at the 12th-highest rate (52.5%). Since Week 2, against two high, Coleman has only a 12.5% target share with 0.85 yards per route run and a 17.2% first-read share. Sit Coleman this week. Carolina has allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
I’m not putting a ton of stock into Xavier Legette‘s performance last week. We have a much longer track record of Legette being a league-average wide receiver than one that will post nine receptions and 92 receiving yards. Legette has a 15.8% target share, 28.4 receiving yards per game (0.90 yards per route run), and a 22.4% first-read share. He’s tied for the team lead in red zone targets while also seeing four deep targets. This week, he faces a Bills’ secondary that has utilized two high at the sixth-highest rate (56.7%). Against two high, Legette has seen his target share remain stable at 15.6% with 0.79 yards per route run and a 21.4% first-read share. Legette is a low-end flex option this week with a nice matchup.
Sterling Shepard is the WR60 in fantasy points per game with only two top-36 weekly wide receiver finishes this season (WR33, WR32). He does have four red zone targets across his last five games. Shepard has a 13.9% target share with 38.1 receiving yards per game (1.43 yards per route run) and a 10.6% first-read share. This week, he’ll face a Saints’ pass defense that has utilized single high at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (59.7%). Against single high, Shepard’s target share (15.2%) and first-read share (11.8%) have risen slightly, but his yards per route run have dipped to 1.25. Shepard is a middling PPR flex this week. The Saints have allowed the 13th-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers (Shepard 54.8% slot last week).
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