Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. I am once again back to cover the NBA this year from a DFS perspective, providing strategy and player advice for every Thursday and Monday slate. It was a great season last year, where I missed out on some big wins but ended up profitable. Let’s run it back again this year, shall we?
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a nine-game or 11-game slate tonight, so there is a lot still up in the air. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $11,000
- FanDuel: $12,400
Anytime Victor Wembanyama is on a slate, he becomes a viable option. He has truly been an alien, with 67 fantasy points coming in as his floor on the season. I only expect his price to continue to rise, and he is the definition of a cheat code. Of course, you have Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic on the slate today, so it’s an interesting choice between the heavy hitters.
Obviously, I will be getting to Jokic tonight. I just prefer Wembanyama. He’s in a friendlier defensive matchup at home with a higher total. It’s hard to say who has the higher ceiling, but they are similar, at the very least. Jokic is a great GPP pivot option, as Wembanyama is projected for significantly higher rostership, but I will be getting plenty of shares of both on this slate.
- DraftKings: $9,200
- FanDuel: $8,600
Atlanta is the straight walking wounded right now with three different projected starters with a questionable tag, so it’s a little bit difficult to project playing times. Someone who isn’t questionable is Trae Young. The Atlanta guard has been fine so far this year and is already at his lowest price on the season.
Young should see plenty of minutes and usage in the highest total game on the slate. Chicago has actually played solid defense early on this season, but it is due for major regression when looking at last year’s numbers. There’s a high possibility for a 5X return on Young’s fantasy output here.
- DraftKings: $9,600
- FanDuel: $9,700
Despite the high projection just shy of 50 fantasy points, Zion Williamson is coming in under 10% rostered on the slate in the early hours, which is surprising. He’s seen over a 33% usage rate in both games so far, scoring 27 points in each.
Boston has completely lost its umph, as the kids say, and New Orleans should get up for this game at home as a slight favorite. Yves Missi is questionable as well, which might only give Williamson additional playing time in the frontcourt. He is a great play across the board tonight, but especially in GPPs.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $5,200
- FanDuel: $5,100
I’m not re-inventing the wheel here with the idea that Donte DiVincenzo is a good play. He’s projected as one of the highest rostered players on the slate, and for good reason. Assuming no Anthony Edwards tonight, the Villanova product should play high minutes again, as he nearly reached 38 minutes last time out.
DiVincenzo’s usage rates aren’t anything to write home about, but with that much opportunity at this price tag, he has a comfortable floor. I will likely be getting to Mike Conley and other Minnesota players, who are all options with the shuffling of usage tonight.
- DraftKings: $5,300
- FanDuel: $5,900
I really want to get a lot of exposure to the Hawks-Bulls game today because not only does it feature the highest total, but there are a lot of friendly avenues here for DFS purposes.
Josh Giddey might be my preferred, but he’s questionable and more expensive. After quite the dud performance against Orlando, Matas Buzelis is in a much more favorable matchup tonight against the Hawks, where he will be back to his 30+ minutes despite the cheaper price tag. Again, he will be highly rostered, but that’s part of filling out your cash lineup.
- DraftKings: $5,100
- FanDuel: $4,700
For another piece of the San Antonio Spurs pie, I want to get my hands on Dylan Harper. He projects for around 27 minutes and 29 fantasy points. The rookie has already been seeing solid minutes, and his playing time is creeping up.
Harper has averaged a 27% usage rate when on the floor, and he can score at different levels, but he also clearly knows how to dish it, with eight assists against Brooklyn. He tallied 43 DraftKings points in that outing, and I still think he’s capable of more.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $10,500
- FanDuel: $11,500
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is always an option and always capable of breaking a slate, already posting a 78.5 DraftKings point output. He’s projected as the third-highest fantasy point producer tonight, but his rostership is coming in around 8-9% percent.
Oklahoma City is already dealing with a handful of injuries, so they’ll need to lean on Gilgeous-Alexander more here in Dallas. It will be more of a slog game with the total hovering around 227 points, but I’ve never doubted Gilgeous-Alexander before, and I’m not starting now.
There are a lot of solid point guard options in this low-rostership/high-ceiling range, so I’ll just list them here as other options: Cade Cunningham, Tyrese Maxey, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Steph Curry (FanDuel) and Ja Morant (FanDuel).
- DraftKings: $10,00
- FanDuel: $10,800
In the same matchup, Anthony Davis is projected for very little rostership. Despite being known for their defense, the Thunder are banged up in this one, so Davis should see a much friendlier matchup.
Cooper Flagg will get a lot of attention, and Davis can play upwards of 37-39 minutes. His usage is around 29% and while he may not break the slate, his rostership is simply too low to not bring up. He’s yet to score fewer than 48 DraftKings points in the small three-game sample size. I’m comfortable buying into that floor, knowing his ceiling.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,300
- FanDuel: $3,800
With no Joel Embiid tonight, Andre Drummond is looking to be one of the biggest values on the slate. He will share time with Adem Bona if you really need to cut costs as a salary-saving option at the center position, but Drummond has the higher ceiling.
Drummond scored 30 DraftKings points last time out and can very well run that back again tonight, despite the tougher matchup.
- DraftKings: $4,400
- FanDuel: $4,100
At around 28 minutes a game, Royce O’Neale is severely underpriced. Phoenix hasn’t been exactly electric, and two tough road games have kept the Suns forward limited in production. While Phoenix is still on the road here, Utah is a much friendlier fantasy matchup.
The Jazz allowed the second-most fantasy points to small forwards last year, and the Suns will not be able to lean on their defense to sit back in this game. Projecting for just fewer than 30 minutes and fantasy points tonight, O’Neale makes for a great option in cash and GPP lineups.
- DraftKings: $3,100
- FanDuel: $3,700
Playing NBA DFS is funny because you can spend all offseason preparing and trying to get ahead of the field, and within a week, you’re putting Bones Hyland into your lineups. Of course, I’ve covered the Minnesota value already, assuming no Anthony Edwards, but this is your pure punt play if you’re trying to lock and load your roster with elite, high-end talent.
We saw 19 minutes out of Hyland last game, so he can get to 20 minutes. He’s displayed some pretty ridiculous ceiling games in his career already. It’s not my most confident play, but Hyland is certainly an option.
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