After entering last week 7-20 on my bold predictions for the season, I hit another. Sadly, it was my only correct bold prediction in Week 10 since Mark Andrews finished as the TE11 in half-point per reception (half PPR) formats after I predicted he’d finish as the TE10 or better. For the season, I’m 8-22 on my weekly bold predictions. Frankly, that’s not good enough. Week 11 is an excellent opportunity to improve my hit rate.
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Week 11 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
Medium
Woody Marks Will Record At Least 80 Scrimmage Yards And A Touchdown
Woody Marks has reached at least 80 scrimmage yards in only three of nine games, scored a touchdown in just three games, and accomplished both feats in the same game twice. The rookie running back is coming off one of the two instances in which he reached at least 80 scrimmage yards while finding the end zone, tallying 81 and one against the Jaguars.
Marks had a season-high 80% snap share last week. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Marks had 14 rush attempts for 63 yards and ran 21 routes (42.9% route participation rate) compared to five carries for 47 yards for Nick Chubb and seven routes for Chubb and Dare Ogunbowale combined. Marks had a genuine workhorse role last week.
This week, the Texans are 6.0-point favorites against the 1-8 Titans. Stud defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons was able to log a limited practice on Thursday. Unless he progresses to full participation on Friday, he’ll presumably have an injury designation.
Simmons played only 12 defensive snaps in Week 7 before leaving the game with a hamstring injury. From Week 7 through Week 9, Tennessee coughed up 156.7 rushing yards per game, 5.60 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns. Marks can find some degree of success against the Titans if Simmons returns this week, but he should outright smash them if Simmons is once again sidelined.
Hot
Christian Watson Will Be A Top-30 Wide Receiver In Half-PPR Formats
Christian Watson is the WR39 in half PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR) this week. The field-stretching wideout has had precisely four targets in all three games he’s played since he made his season debut. Unfortunately, Watson’s receiving yardage has slid from 85 to 58 and bottomed out at 45 against the Eagles in Week 10.
Watson has an outstanding opportunity for his best game of the year against the Giants. Big Blue has permitted the seventh-most half-PPR points per game (29.8) to wide receivers this year. The G-Men’s coverage tendencies are also optimal for Watson’s outlook this week.
According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Giants have played man coverage at the highest rate (39.2%) this year and single-high coverage at the fifth-highest rate (59.3%). Watson has 0.12 targets per route run (TPRR) and 3.06 yards per route run (Y/RR) on 17 routes against man and 0.16 TPRR and 2.58 Y/RR on 43 routes against single-high coverage this season. He had 0.34 TPRR and 3.51 Y/RR on 76 routes against man last year and 0.32 TPRR and 2.44 Y/RR on 66 routes against man in 2023. Additionally, Watson had 0.25 TPRR and 2.63 Y/RR on 150 routes against single-high coverage in 2024 and 0.21 TPRR and 2.12 Y/RR on 140 routes against it in 2023. Watson’s dominance against New York’s coverage tendencies and their general leakiness on the back end should allow Watson to finish as a top-30 wide receiver in half-PPR formats this week.
Atomic
Lamar Jackson Won’t Finish As a Top-12 Quarterback
Lamar Jackson is the QB3 in points per game (22.8) this year, with finishes as the QB4, tied for the QB3, QB3, tied for the QB27, QB9 and QB15. Therefore, he’s finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 66.7% of his starts this season, including when he faced the Browns back in Week 2.
Jackson draws his AFC North foes again this week. Yet, the rematch is in Cleveland, and the weather will likely be suboptimal. According to StatHead, the Browns have allowed only 616 passing yards (154 per game) and four passing touchdowns with four interceptions against four teams in Cleveland this season. Per StatHead, Carson Wentz‘s 14.74 fantasy points are the most scored by a quarterback against the Browns in Cleveland this year, and they held Jordan Love to 11.12 and Joe Burrow to 8.82.
And, again, the weather is likely to be unfavorable. According to Kevin Roth, the forecast calls for sustained winds around 20 miles per hour (mph), with gusts around 30 mph. Most gamers with Jackson don’t have a viable alternative, but they should recalibrate expectations for Jackson when making other lineup decisions for their matchup.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
