I entered last week with a 10-23 record on my bold predictions for the year, good for a .303 batting average. I whiffed on my first two bold predictions in Week 12, but Adonai Mitchell narrowly saved my bacon, finishing tied for WR47 in half-point per reception (half PPR) scoring after I boldly declared he’d finish as a top-48 wideout in half-PPR scoring. As a result, my season ledger is at 11-25 (.306). Let’s look at three Week 13 bold predictions.
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Week 13 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
Medium
Khalil Shakir Will Finish as a Top-20 WR in Half-PPR
Khalil Shakir is ranked as the WR26 in half-PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR) this week. However, that ranking might be a bit light, and a top-20 finish is within his reach.
The Bills will likely be without both starting tackles, as neither Spencer Brown (shoulder) nor Dion Dawkins (concussion) has practiced this week. Buffalo’s offensive line will have its hands full with Pittsburgh’s blitz-heavy defense without its bookends. According to Pro Football Reference, the Steelers are tied for the fourth-highest blitz rate (30.1%) this season.
One way to keep Josh Allen upright without his starting tackles and against a blitz-heavy defense is to pepper his reliable, short-area wideout with targets. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Shakir has just a 4.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT) this season, and he has 0.22 targets per route run (TPRR), 14 receptions, 233 receiving yards, 2.65 yards per route run (Y/RR) and two touchdown receptions on 88 routes against the blitz this year.
Shakir also has some eye-catching data against some of Pittsburgh’s typical coverage tendencies. The Steelers have run single-high coverage at the sixth-highest rate (59.2%). Shakir has 0.27 TPRR and 2.48 Y/RR on 180 routes against single-high coverage this season.
Hot
The 49ers Don’t Have a Top-40 Wide Receiver in Half-PPR
Jauan Jennings is the WR31 and Ricky Pearsall is the WR45 in half-PPR ECR, putting one inside the top-40 wideouts and another just outside that territory. Sadly, those rankings are probably rather optimistic for them against Cleveland’s fierce defense.
The Browns have allowed the seventh-fewest half-PPR points per game (22.9) to wide receivers this year. Cleveland’s defense has been especially great at home this season, allowing only 17 points to the Bengals in Week 1, 10 to the Packers in Week 3, six to the Dolphins in Week 7 and 23 to the Ravens in Week 11. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, receivers logged only 28 receptions, 352 receiving yards, zero touchdowns and 12.1 half-PPR points per game against the Browns in their home games this year.
Making matters worse for Brock Purdy and San Francisco’s passing attack is a lousy weather forecast that’s likely to include rain and strong winds. The conditions are ripe for San Francisco’s offense, namely its passing game, to flop this week, preventing any of their wide receivers from cracking the top 40 at the position. Most start-or-sit questions between Jennings and Pearsall or someone else should tilt toward the mystery alternative.
Atomic
Cam Ward Will Score at Least 18 Fantasy Points
Cam Ward is just the QB25 in ECR, meaning he’s not a legitimate roster consideration for gamers in 12-team single-QB leagues or smaller. However, he’s a more appealing option than players ranked ahead of him, such as Purdy, Tyrod Taylor, Tyler Shough and Aaron Rodgers, which puts Ward into the Super Flex mix.
Ward had his best fantasy football showing as a rookie in Week 12, scoring 23.9 fantasy points against the Seahawks. Ward’s previous high was only 13.8 fantasy points. Predicting at least 18 fantasy points for Ward this week is an atomic bold prediction.
According to StatHead, six quarterbacks have scored at least 18 fantasy points against the Jaguars this year, and Jake Browning and Purdy narrowly missed, with 17.74 and 17.66. Jacksonville has a pass-funnel defense, aiding Ward’s cause for another fantasy-friendly showing. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Jaguars have faced the highest pass rate over expectations (7.4% PROE) this season and the fourth-highest PROE (9.0%) since Week 8.
Meanwhile, according to Pro Football Reference, Ward had a career high for pass attempts (42), his second most passing yards (256) and his second most adjusted net yards per pass attempt (5.48 ANY/A) in a game last week. Ward has also started scrambling since the team’s Week 10 bye, rumbling for 33 yards in Week 11 and 37 yards and a touchdown in Week 12. Development isn’t always linear, and Ward’s rushing production might not stick, but he has another plus matchup to keep making strides this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
