Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. I hope everyone had a great weekend and is staying warm as the winter weather creeps up a bit earlier this year. This season hasn’t been too shabby, and we continue building data early on this year.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have an eight- or nine-game slate, depending on where you play, which is the perfect number. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. I hope everyone had a great weekend and is staying warm as the winter weather creeps up a bit earlier this year. This season hasn’t been too shabby, and we continue building data early on this year.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have an eight- or nine-game slate, depending on where you play, which is the perfect number. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $10,500
- FanDuel: $10,400
The big question at point guard tonight is: Are you going to spend up for Luka Doncic? My answer isn’t necessarily no; I’m just not overweight compared to the rest of the field. Yes, he does get a friendly matchup in Charlotte, a fast-paced team that ranks in the bottom 10 of defenses, but Cade Cunningham is in a similar matchup.
Washington has a worse defense and is even faster, and Detroit gets them at home. Obviously, Doncic has the higher ceiling, but with the price savings and Cunningham’s 30% usage rate, he’s my preferred choice given the market value.
- DraftKings: $11,900
- FanDuel: $12,200
The Bulls have been a bit of a surprise after starting the year 6-3. It hasn’t been because of an elite defense, though. Chicago is allowing opposing centers to score at a top-seven clip in terms of DraftKings points, and they play at the sixth-fastest pace in the league, a big spot up from the Spurs’ bottom-five rate.
Victor Wembanyama is priced down a bit after reaching $12,400 last week. He’s gone over 70 DraftKings points three times already this season, and after some road struggles, he feels due. This should be a fun game where Wembanyama gets his fill with his 30% usage rate and 34+ minutes on the court.
- DraftKings: $9,300
- FanDuel: $9,100
Again, I’d rather have Giannis Antetokounmpo in my lineup, but given price and situation, I’m going to play Paolo Banchero. The elite forward options are limited today with Anthony Davis and Miles Bridges both questionable, LeBron James still out and Zion Williamson sidelined. The trickle-down effect leads us to Banchero.
Portland is the second fastest-paced team in the league with a middle-of-the-pack defense. The Duke product has been playing consistent ball, but is due for a ceiling game we saw out of him last year, and he still has been creeping up in price. Banchero will get plenty of usage, plenty of play and your opportunity cost is low.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $8,700
- FanDuel: $8,700
Speaking of power forwards, next up is Evan Mobley. Cleveland travels to Miami to face the fastest-paced team in the league in the Heat. They will be without Bam Adebayo tonight, so the frontcourt will be open for Mobley to feast.
The Cavs forward has scored fewer than 38 DraftKings points once this season and has gone over 50 twice. He’s safe with his usage. While it is early, I do expect a fair amount of rostership to come his way, given the lack of top-end forwards and that Cleveland has the highest implied team total on today’s slate.
- DraftKings: $6,300
- FanDuel: $6,500
Of course, on the other side of the ball, we have Kel’el Ware. I wish he were cheaper, but he’s played an average of 26 minutes with 27 DraftKings points. This game has the highest total on the slate, and he should see the court for over 30 minutes tonight.
Honestly, there’s a decent chance Ware is the second-highest scoring center behind Victor Wembanyama tonight, and that kind of value is difficult to come by. Jalen Duren is in a great spot against Washington, but with the significant price savings, Ware is my choice if you’re looking for a cheaper center option to build a balanced lineup across the board.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $6,000
- FanDuel: $5,800
Rudy Gobert is quickly making the case as a go-to GPP play no matter the slate. Five days ago, he put up 17 DraftKings points, and then last night he posted a 50-burger. You never know what to expect. The uncertainty should keep his rostership at bay, but keep an eye out because it might creep up with the matchup.
The Jazz are a bottom-five defense this season, but will pace up the Timberwolves. Gobert has gone over 40 points three times so far this year, which would be ideal tonight at his price. I project him for a little over 30 points. Given the current rostership, that still makes him a fun GPP play.
- DraftKings: $6,500
- FanDuel: $6,000
Another player I’m surprised isn’t getting more love is Jaime Jaquez Jr. Again, rostership will likely bounce around all day, so if he becomes chalky, he’s an easy move into more cash-heavy lineups but can still make for a solid play across the board.
After coming off two straight 40+ DraftKings point outings, Jaquez hasn’t seen his price budge, and is an even better value play on FanDuel. Miami runs and guns, and without Bam Adebayo, the usage will shake up. He gets another boost with his guard-forward eligibility on DraftKings to help with roster construction. From a pure point value tonight, the UCLA product projects well.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,700
- FanDuel: $5,300
This is assuming Jalen Suggs is out tonight on the second leg of a back-to-back. If that’s the case, it’s wheels up for Anthony Black. When he takes the court, the Orlando guard has a 20% usage rate. He’ll likely play around 30 minutes if Suggs is out.
Black is not exactly a punt option, but he may return the best return on investment (ROI) of any player tonight, going up against Portland. The double guard-forward status makes him roster-friendly, and we’ve seen 30+ fantasy points out of him already this year.
- DraftKings: $3,900
- FanDuel: $3,900
This feels like your punt play. The rookie is projected to start his fourth straight game, and I’m trying to be ahead of his price boost. He’s actually discounted a bit tonight, but he’s posted two 25+point outings, and he’s been seeing a lot of time on the court.
Sion James’ usage rate could be better, and it isn’t the best matchup, but 30+ minutes out of a sub-$4,000 option is gold if you’re trying to spend up elsewhere.
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