The current week of NFL DFS is always my favorite week. The slate is clean, and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes like we do in managed seasonal leagues. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This article aims to decipher values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for DraftKings and FanDuel.
This week, we have an 11-game slate due to bye weeks. Between bye weeks and injuries, we have to dig a little deep for the value plays. Let’s get to it.
NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 9
Quarterbacks
Mac Jones has filled in fairly well for an injured Brock Purdy, all things considered. Over his six starts, he is averaging 17.7 fantasy points per game. All of which was without Brandon Aiyuk and also minus George Kittle for five of those contests. He has finished as a QB1 in two of those outings. In three of those matchups, he has thrown multiple touchdown passes.
The New York Football Giants are surrendering the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. They allow an average of 248.4 passing yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns. With Kittle back in the lineup and receiving meaningful looks helps Jones’ outlook in a solid matchup.
Jones has played well enough for the 49ers to be able to allow Purdy to be 100% before returning to the field. Jones does not offer any real value with his legs, lowering his ceiling. However, he does represent a high-floor play and can be stacked for this matchup. He is best used in GPP contests for this slate.
It has been an up-and-down season for the second-year signal caller. In three of his seven starts, he has three QB1 finishes. He is the QB14 in fantasy points per game at the position. Where there has been good, there has also been bad.
Caleb Williams is one of the worst in quarterback accuracy among qualified signal-callers. He has been indecisive and off-target on a more frequent basis than most starters this season. To follow that up, he has not been running the ball as much either. All of this sounds negative, but there is a method to the madness with this play for this slate. Hang in for a few more sentences.
The Bengals’ defense is generous to quarterbacks, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points on a per-game basis. They allow an average of 262.1 passing yards and 2.1 passing touchdowns per game. Per Derek Brown of FantasyPros, “since Week 4, the Bengals have allowed the third-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-most passing yards per game, the most passing touchdowns and the second-highest success rate per dropback.”
Williams will be largely overlooked in the DFS streets this weekend, making him a viable dart throw in GPP contests for multiple lineup players.
Running Backs
TreVeyon Henderson, as a prospect, was someone I was fairly high on. Explosive, shifty, hard to bring down and an excellent pass blocker. The transition to the NFL has barely shown any of that, outside of one fantasy viable game last week.
Facing the Browns, Henderson rumbled for 75 yards on 10 carries. However, he only ran two routes. With Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined, Henderson is expected to fill the lead back role with Terrell Jennings and D’Ernest Johnson (elevated from the practice squad) backing him up.
The Falcons have a strong secondary and an above-average pass rush, but still allow the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs. They surrender an average of 102.2 rushing yards per game. Last week, Henderson handled three red-zone carries, which is encouraging usage.
Henderson is not a lock to produce, but he is a lock for volume on the ground. His involvement in the pass game is suspect, creating a volatile selection for the main slate. Henderson is best used in multiple lineup GPP contests for this slate.
Bears running back Kyle Monangai has seen an uptick in snaps over the last several weeks. Since Week 7, he has been above the 45% snap share mark. With D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson out for this contest, it leaves the feast to the rookie and Travis Homer. In Week 7, Monangai rushed 13 times for 81 yards and a score against the Saints. This matchup versus the Bengals is much better, and the volume should be there.
The Bengals are allowing the most fantasy points to running backs. Backs are averaging 132.1 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown per game thus far. They also allow 47.1 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving touchdowns to the position this season. Based on expected volume and rostered percentage, Monangai can be used in both cash and GPP contests this week.
Wide Receivers
The trust between quarterback Aaron Rodgers and DK Metcalf continues to blossom. Metcalf has become Rodgers’ go-to in the red zone, having already matched his total touchdowns (five) from last season with the Seahawks through only seven games. Metcalf is averaging 15.2 DraftKings points per game and 6.1 targets for 65.8 receiving yards.
The Colts have presented us with an (unexpected) explosive offense. However, their defense is susceptible to wide receivers, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the position. On average, they allow 170.4 receiving yards and 1.1 receiving touchdowns per game.
If the Colts force a negative game script, that only favors Metcalf in potential volume, which leads to more pass attempts. And, if we are being honest, we are all aware that Metcalf can make a roster’s week with one big play.
Metcalf is usable in both cash and GPP contests for this slate. He does not need to be stacked, but can certainly be for the adventurous type.
Wan’Dale Robinson continues to operate as the de facto No. 1 WR for the Giants since Malik Nabers‘ (saddening, unfortunate, nearly heartbreaking, might write a song about it later) season-ending injury. Since then, Robinson has benefited from nearly a 23% target share and 23.7% first-read share. He is averaging 7.1 targets for 70.5 receiving yards, but only has two touchdowns to show for it. Regression is coming with that many targets on a per-game basis.
The 49ers defense is allowing the 13th-most fantasy points to the position, making this more of a volume play against a nearly neutral opponent. That said, quarterback Jaxson Dart has been slinging the ball with more confidence lately, and the top target in that offense now is Robinson.
Jauan Jennings, on the other side of this game, was in consideration for this selection. The volume just favors Robinson per the cost. Robinson can be used in both cash and GPP contests, but is favored in cash due to salary and volume.
Tight Ends
Full transparency, T.J. Hockenson has not been the tight end we expected this season. He is currently the TE24 in fantasy points per game, well below expectations. Hockenson has seven red-zone targets (good) and one touchdown (bad) on the season. He is averaging just over five targets per game and seeing a 16% target share. It just has not materialized. Again, regression is due based on targets.
The Lions allow the 18th-most fantasy points and the 13th-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. This game features a 48.5 over/under, implying that Minnesota may be operating behind, leading to a more pass-heavy game script.
While Hockenson has been disappointing in production, the volume has been solid. He should operate as a GPP contest option for this week’s slate.
Dalton Kincaid is the TE8 in fantasy points per game. He is maintaining just over a 15% target share and averaging 44.2 receiving yards per game. He has three touchdowns through seven games. In an offense that spreads the ball around, Kincaid has been one of the more reliable pass-catchers on the roster from a consistency standpoint.
Full transparency, the Chiefs’ defense, especially against tight ends, is not super friendly. They allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position.
This is a volume call in a game that features an over/under of 52.5. Over the last several seasons, Bills versus Chiefs has been exciting football to watch, so pieces of both offenses should be sprinkled into DFS lineups. Kincaid would fit better in GPP contests than cash for this slate.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
