Ellis Bryn Johnson | Fri, Dec 19th 2025, 7:28am EST

5 Fantasy Football Smash Starts: Week 16 (2025)

Smashing starts right into the fantasy football semi-finals. With only a couple of weeks of the fantasy season to go, fantasy start sit decisions are more important than ever.

Last week, we selected players who may have been on the fringe of your starting rosters. Our selections were Woody Marks (RB25), D’Andre Swift (RB7), Kyle Monangai (RB52), Jordan Addison (WR43) and Terry McLaurin (WR15). This week, we focus on players who are likely on teams in the playoffs. Ultimately, we are selecting players in huge matchups that may carry you to a win or could end your season a week short. My name is Ellis Johnson, and these are your Week 16 smash starts.

Fantasy Football Smash Starts: Week 16

Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)

It has been anything but smooth sailing for Saquon Barkley managers this season. Through the first 13 weeks, Barkley was the fantasy RB15. Over that stretch, he had failed to top 85 rushing yards in any game, a threshold he met in all but four games last season (including playoffs). Thankfully, his last two performances have given fantasy managers hope when they need it most.

After scoring in two consecutive games for the first time since Weeks 1 and 2, as well as averaging 100 rushing yards in his last two games, Barkley has a great matchup this week. The Commanders have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, and the third-most since Week 10. Over that span, they are averaging 1.8 touchdowns to running backs each week. This is a great sign for Barkley potentially scoring twice for only the second time this season. Unless Jalen Hurts manages to steal these carries, it should be a big day for the star back.

De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)

A margarita on the beach, a hot tub after a ski day and De’Von Achane playing the Bengals in the fantasy playoffs are three perfect pairings. On the season, the Bengals have allowed 129 rushing yards, five receptions, 45.6 receiving yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs. That’s an average of 29.9 half-PPR points each week. Since Week 11, the Bengals have stiffened up their defense, but still allow the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs over that stretch.

Achane has been incredibly consistent, averaging 18.6 fantasy points per game, which is the fifth-most at the position. On the season, he has yet to finish below RB16 on any given week and has been a top-12 back in seven consecutive weeks. Even with Quinn Ewers under center, this offense should remain very similar. Ewers has a fast throw time and is built to run the same style of offense as Tua Tagovailoa. With the Bengals’ linebackers still trying to learn their position, Achane will be the unstoppable force facing a very movable object.

Bo Nix (QB – DEN)

The fantasy community seems torn on whether Bo Nix is a good quarterback or not. This season, it would appear that both sides are correct, as there have been plenty of plays supporting both sides. Regardless of where you stand, Nix was electric last week. Passing for 300 yards and four touchdowns, he had his second-best fantasy finish of the season when you needed it most.

This week, Nix has a great matchup against the pass-funnel Jaguars defense. On the season, the Jaguars are allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. However, they have picked up their socks over the last five games, averaging the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and the third-fewest fantasy points in the red zone. Despite this, the Jaguars’ offense has started clicking and has scored an average of 36 points over their last three games. As a result, Nix may find himself playing from behind, making him a locked-in quarterback for your fantasy semi-finals.

Nico Collins (WR – HOU)

Despite tying his season low in receptions (three) in a game last week, Nico Collins managed to tie his best fantasy finish. Catching three of his four targets for 85 yards and two scores, Collins pulled through once again for fantasy managers. Over the last six weeks, he has three games inside the top five and four inside the top 15. Considering he has done this with at least 75 yards in all but one of his last six games, he has a great floor while always being a threat for the end zone.

The Texans are clicking as a team, playing complementary football alongside their elite defense. On offense, this meant relying on C.J. Stroud not turning the ball over and delivering it to his favorite target. This week, the Texans face the Raiders, who allowed multiple huge plays in the receiving game last week. Respectively, Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown had receptions of 32, 44 and 27 yards, despite the starters only playing three quarters.

The only concern is that the Texans can likely win this game without taking an offensive snap; their defense is that dominant. However, they will have to find a way to score some points with their offense, and Collins should be unstoppable in this matchup.

DK Metcalf (WR – PIT)

Of all the offenses to rely on in your fantasy semi-finals, the Steelers are not the first to come to mind. However gross the offense is, they only have one receiver, and he gets to face the Lions this week. Metcalf has had an impressively decent season, considering Aaron Rodgers is scared to get hit and throw it down the field.

As they fight for the AFC North title, the Steelers have a potential shootout on their hands in Detroit. The Lions’ offense is firing on all cylinders and should be able to outduel a tough Steelers defense. As a result, Aaron Rodgers may be forced to find Metcalf down the field. With the Lions allowing the eighth-most passing yards per game and fourth-most passing touchdowns, even the Steelers should find a way to score a couple of touchdowns. If that happens, Metcalf is the safest bet to find paydirt. His target floor and touchdown upside make him primed to smash in Week 16.

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