If you’re reading this, congrats on making it to the fantasy football semi-finals. Whether you are coming in rested off a bye or just secured your spot with a win in a wild Week 15, it’s time to look ahead to Week 16.
As always, this article is here to help identify borderline starters with particularly good (or particularly bad) matchups to help you set an ideal lineup and win your matchup. Let’s get right into it.
- Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 16)
Week 16 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) @ Dallas Cowboys
After a hot start to the season, Justin Herbert has been straight-up bad for fantasy football recently. He hasn’t finished as a weekly QB1 or with more than 15.2 fantasy points since all the way back in Week 9.
But this week, Herbert gets to face the Cowboys’ defense. They’re so bad that I recommended J.J. McCarthy against them last week, and “Nine” came through with 24.5 fantasy points. That’s exactly how many points quarterbacks are averaging against the Dallas defense, 3.4 points above the second-ranked Bengals and 7.5 points above the median.
Only two quarterbacks have finished a full game against this defense with fewer than 20 fantasy points: Jared Goff in a week where Detroit still scored 44 points, and Geno Smith. Say what you will about Herbert, but he’s better than what we’ve seen from Geno this year. He is a very solid backend QB1 this week.
Bad Matchup: Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG) vs. Minnesota Vikings
After a disappointing showing in his first week back from injury, Jaxson Dart bounced back with 23.1 fantasy points in Week 15. The rookie has averaged an absolutely elite 22.2 points in his nine starts this season. And after not rushing as much (and seeing zero designed rushes) in his first game without Brian Daboll, he racked up 63 yards on nine carries (three designed) last week.
However, with all that said, I’m a little worried about the 25th overall pick this week. The Vikings allow the third-fewest points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy defense is a lot for any quarterback to handle, let alone a 22-year-old rookie. Dart is not a must-bench, but there are enough great fantasy quarterbacks out there that he’s not a QB1 this week.
Week 16 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Aaron Jones (RB – MIN) @ New York Giants
He’s not the bell-cow back he briefly was near the middle of the season, but Aaron Jones is the Vikings’ clear No. 1 RB. Over the last four weeks, he has averaged a 53% running back rush share and a 12% target share on a 45% route rate. Minnesota has had more than its fair share of garbage time over the last month, so those numbers would likely be slightly higher otherwise (I did filter out Zavier Scott‘s six rushes, which all came in the stinkiest of garbage time, for the rush share number).
However, despite this decent usage, Jones has averaged just 6.3 half-PPR points over the last four weeks. This week, I expect him to turn things around as the Vikings face the Giants. New York’s defense ranks third in points per game allowed to opposing backs. Even after a good performance against the Commanders on Sunday, they give up a whopping 5.9 yards per carry to running backs, over half a yard more than any other team. Even with his recent struggles, don’t be afraid to give Jones a shot as your RB2 this week.
Bad Matchup: Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA) vs. Los Angeles Rams
I’m sure anyone with Kenneth Walker III on their fantasy roster doesn’t need me to remind them that his usage has been uninspiring this season. After briefly trending in the right direction, he has slipped back into a very even split with Zach Charbonnet over the last few weeks. In fact, Charbonnet actually led Seattle’s backfield in snaps last week, the first time that has happened since Week 7.
On top of his mediocre usage, Walker has a brutal matchup this week on Thursday night against the Rams. The Rams’ defense allows the fewest points per game to opposing backs in the league, as well as the third-fewest yards per carry. Walker is an explosive playmaker capable of breaking big runs, but if he doesn’t do that, it’s likely to be yet another mediocre fantasy week. I recommend benching him if you have another viable option.
Week 16 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Ladd McConkey (WR – LAC) @ Dallas Cowboys
Ladd McConkey’s second year in the NFL has been a rollercoaster ride, at least from a fantasy perspective. He started very slowly, seemingly playing third fiddle behind an emerging Quentin Johnston and ageless Keenan Allen. But then he seemingly reasserted himself as the Chargers’ No. 1 WR in the middle of the season, with three top-six finishes and five top-24 finishes between Week 6 and Week 10. But he’s slowed down again lately, with scores of just 2.8, 1.7 and 3.0 half-PPR points in three of his last four games.
Thankfully, McConkey has a great chance to bounce back (again) this week. Along with being weak against quarterbacks, the Cowboys’ defense leads the league in points allowed to opposing wideouts. Despite actually ranking below-average (17th) in wide receiver targets faced per game, they rank third in yards and first (by a decent margin) in touchdowns allowed to the position. If you’ve survived McConkey’s recent duds to make the semi-finals, give him a chance to redeem himself in Jerry World this week.
Bad Matchup: Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG) vs. Minnesota Vikings
I paired Justin Herbert with his No. 1 WR as a good matchup pairing, so let’s pair Jaxson Dart with his top wideout in the bad matchup section. With Malik Nabers out for the majority of the season, Wan’Dale Robinson has stepped up for New York. He ranks as the WR16 in total half-PPR points, proving once again that nothing is more important for fantasy than being able to earn targets.
Unfortunately for managers who have ridden the short king to the playoffs, this week represents a challenge. The Vikings are the second-toughest fantasy matchup for receivers. They allow just 5.5 points per game to slot receivers, where Robinson has lined up for exactly two-thirds of his routes this season. With his track record, Robinson isn’t a must-bench — but he’s also a far riskier option in this matchup than he would normally be.
Week 16 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Darren Waller (TE – MIA) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The “just play every tight end against the Bengals” strategy actually failed last week, as Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar combined for just 2.8 half-PPR points. But even with this relative win under their belts, the Bengals’ defense is still laughably more generous to tight ends than any other team: 10 targets, 7.1 receptions, 91 yards, 1.1 touchdowns and 19.1 half-PPR points is the average stat line they allow. To be clear, that’s to all opposing tight ends in a game, not just the top option; it’s still an absurd outlier.
This week, the beneficiary of this historic matchup is Darren Waller. Waller is coming off a game in which he posted an elite 29% target share and 42% air yards share, catching seven passes for 66 yards and two scores (albeit mostly in garbage time). The veteran’s route participation rate has hovered around 60% since returning from injury. That would concern me in a normal matchup, but this isn’t a normal matchup. Fire Waller up as a TE1.
Bad Matchup: Harold Fannin Jr. (TE – CLE) vs. Buffalo Bills
Don’t get me wrong — I still have the rookie ranked as a legit TE1 this week. Harold Fannin Jr. saw 14 targets last week. But there aren’t many matchups that are genuinely bad for tight ends, and I wasn’t about to suggest you fade Trey McBride because of the Falcons’ defense.
And the Bills are easily the toughest matchup for opposing tight ends, allowing just 5.6 points per game to the position. Tight ends against Buffalo average a miserable 2.7 receptions per game. Combine that with the fact that the Browns have an embarrassingly low 16.25-point implied total this week, and this is far more likely to be a floor game than a ceiling one for Fannin.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
