Let’s take a look at some of the players with the largest standard deviation between high and low expert ranks in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR). Which players are the safest starts, and who poses the biggest risk to your fantasy football lineup in Week 14?
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Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
Week 14 Risky Fantasy Football Starts
Woody Marks (RB – HOU) @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Highest Rank: RB22
- Lowest Rank: RB28
At this point in the season, it’s tough to turn our nose up at a lead back, especially one that has had a minimum of 16 carries in each of the past three games. Unfortunately, despite operating as the clear lead back, Woody Marks’ volume isn’t translating to actual fantasy production. Marks has had between six and seven fantasy points in each of the past three games, despite two of those matchups being extremely run-friendly.
Marks is difficult to trust against a Kansas City defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Marks has struggled inside the 5-yard line and has limited checkdowns recently, so asking Marks to produce without touchdowns and without receiving volume simply isn’t realistic.
While both offenses are capable of producing points, this matchup figures to be a defensive battle with an expected point total of just 42.5. You’re better off turning to the tier of 1B running backs — Kenneth Gainwell, David Montgomery, Zach Charbonnet, etc — who at least have the capability of scoring double-digit fantasy points.
My Projected Finish: RB24
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAX) vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Highest Rank: WR26
- Lowest Rank: WR35
Brian Thomas Jr. returned in Week 13, and the results were very underwhelming. He wasn’t limited and ran the second-most snaps of any receiver behind Jakobi Meyers, but had just two receptions on three targets for 28 yards. Parker Washington left the game with an injury, but it’s tough to imagine his absence having a major impact on Thomas’ production.
Thomas has had just two games with double-digit fantasy points in half-PPR this year and just one finish inside the top 10. Meyers is operating as the clear No. 1 WR. He’s acclimated well into the offense and has developed a nice rapport with Trevor Lawrence.
Brenton Strange has also returned from injured reserve (IR) with solid production. The Jaguars have also been leaning into the ground game and focusing on balance from Lawrence rather than pushing extreme volume. The Jaguars’ offense is working without Thomas. He offers a limited ceiling with a very shaky floor.
My Projected Finish: WR32
Oronde Gadsden (TE – LAC) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Highest Rank: TE8
- Lowest Rank: TE14
Our waiver wire darling is dropping in rankings week after week, and the last time we saw him score double-digit fantasy points in half-PPR was way back in Week 8. He’s gone four games without a touchdown and is struggling to produce volume. It’s highly concerning, considering the Chargers have been in good matchups.
The lack of production is likely not Oronde Gadsden’s fault. His role hasn’t been diminished. He has the second-highest snap count of pass-catchers behind Ladd McConkey. He’s running a solid number of routes. However, the Chargers’ offensive line struggles are impacting Justin Herbert‘s production, making all pass-catchers touchdown-dependent.
Herbert is also dealing with a fracture in his non-throwing hand. He had surgery and is considered day-to-day. The Chargers play on Monday night, so we may be in a bit of a sticky area in terms of knowing who will be at quarterback before you have to make your Sunday lineup decisions. Given tight end injuries and low production, Gadsden is still a low-end TE1, but he’s likely in line for another single-digit performance.
My projected finish for Gadsden: TE10
More Risky Starts
Week 14 Safe Fantasy Football Starts
Jacoby Brissett (QB – ARI) vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Highest Rank: QB9
- Lowest Rank: QB13
Our high-volume king remains one of the safest plays you can make at quarterback, even in a terrible matchup against the L.A. Rams. The Rams are one of the most formidable defenses in the league; however, they are not completely impenetrable.
While we could see multiple turnovers, it’s still a high-volume matchup where quarterbacks rack up good yardage and throw multiple touchdowns, purely because the Rams’ offense is so successful that it forces teams to push aggressive volume to keep up.
Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 300+ yards in the past three games and 250+ yards in every start this season. He has 13 touchdowns in just seven starts. Brissett remains a top-12 option this week.
My Projected Finish: QB9
Jayden Higgins (WR – HOU) @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Highest Rank: WR33
- Lowest Rank: WR38
C.J. Stroud returned to action, and Jayden Higgins continued his solid production, catching all five of his targets for 65 yards. In the past six games, he’s had between nine and 15 PPR fantasy points in all but one game — against Denver — and has three touchdowns over the time period.
We did see some increased usage from Xavier Hutchinson this past week, but it didn’t take away from Higgins’ snaps or targets. While we’ll likely never see Higgins produce WR1 numbers with Nico Collins operating as the clear No. 1 WR, Higgins is becoming an extremely reliable floor play, making him a safe low-end flex option. The matchup isn’t ideal, but Kansas City may focus on shutting down Collins, opening up opportunities for Higgins.
My Projected Finish: WR34
Kyle Monangai (RB – CHI) @ Green Bay Packers
- Highest Rank: RB20
- Lowest Rank: RB23
Kyle Monangai has sneakily become an extremely reliable running back despite not being the starting running back on his team. Since Week 9, he has had between nine and 21 half-PPR fantasy points, and all but one of those games have been alongside D’Andre Swift.
The Bears have been so successful on the ground that they’re leaning aggressively into the run, and both running backs are viable starts. Oddly enough, Monangai might be the safer start. He’s had the more reliable floor, and he consistently gets looks at the goal line with four straight games with a touchdown.
Green Bay is a difficult matchup across the board, but running backs still have a fairly solid floor against them while simply limiting the ceiling. Monangai is in line for another double-digit fantasy point performance.
My Projected Finish: RB20
More Safe Starts
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