Let’s take a look at some of the players with the largest standard deviation between high and low expert ranks in FantasyPros ECR. Which players are the safest starts, and who poses the biggest risk to your fantasy football lineup in Week 17?
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Week 17 Risky Fantasy Football Starts
Taysom Hill (TE – NO) @ Tennessee Titans
- Highest Rank: TE9
- Lowest Rank: TE25
This is one of the most dramatic gaps in rankings that we’ve seen all season. With Alvin Kamara and Devin Neal out, the Saints opted to minimize the next man up – Audric Estime – and turn to Hill in Week 16. Estime had five carries for 19 yards and three receptions on four targets for 17 yards. Hill touched the ball in every possible way, operating as the lead back, an actual receiving option, and a quarterback. Hill is always a risky play because his volume is rarely enough to offer a solid floor without a touchdown. However, if he’s going to contribute as a pass catcher and not simply a gadget, he’s a start-worthy option with Tyler Shough thriving over the past month and supplying ample volume to all skill positions. An excellent matchup against Tennessee lessens the risk.
My projected finish for Hill: TE14
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) vs. Houston Texans
- Highest Rank: QB14
- Lowest Rank: QB20
We talked about Justin Herbert in the Week 16 article as a risky start that was worth the risk, given an excellent matchup with the Cowboys. However, Week 17 is another story. Herbert’s struggles have been the direct result of the Chargers’ offensive line injuries. Herbert had a strong performance last week because he finally faced a terrible Dallas defense that was conveniently missing Quinnen Williams. This week’s matchup against Houston is the exact opposite. While the Texans’ defensive performance last week was underwhelming, their defensive line is elite and will make life extremely difficult for Herbert. Quarterback depth is weak with excessive injuries, so you may be forced to turn to Herbert because at least he offers talent and upside. However, it’s best to avoid the risk and look elsewhere this week.
My projected finish for Herbert: QB19
Emeka Egbuka (WR – TB) @ Miami Dolphins
- Highest Rank: WR34
- Lowest Rank: WR46
Egbuka’s switch-up from league-winner to lineup-liability will be studied for years to come. While we’d like to attribute the downturn in production to the return of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, his low floor appeared well before they returned. Aside from one random boom game against New England in Week 10, Egbuka hasn’t exceeded 10 fantasy points since Week 5. He’s an extremely volatile option and even in a good matchup, the upside lies with Evans. “Big Mike” returned in Week 15 and, in just two games, he’s had a total of 21 targets. Evans offers upside. Godwin offers a decent floor. Egbuka offers extreme frustration. While Miami is an excellent matchup and a good bounce-back opportunity for Baker Mayfield, Egbuka is Tampa’s most volatile asset and difficult to trust in a critical championship matchup.
My projected finish for Egbuka: WR39
More Risky Starts
- Colby Parkinson
- CJ Stroud
- Terry McLaurin
- Alec Pierce
- Chris Godwin
Week 17 Safe Fantasy Football Starts
Tyler Shough (QB – NO) @ Tennessee Titans
- Highest Rank: QB11
- Lowest Rank: QB14
Streaming options at quarterback are crumbling right before our eyes to the point that Shough is easily the most reliable streaming option this week. Shough has had a minimum of 17 fantasy points in each of the past four games and has moved into the top 12 of quarterback rankings this week. Shough has thrived against Miami, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and the New York Jets – all generally friendly matchups – and this week he has a matchup with Tennessee, which has allowed the eighth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. In a week where we’ve got multiple quarterback injuries and terrible matchups for guys like Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud, Shough offers safety and upside this week.
My projected finish for Shough: QB11
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB – NYG) @ Las Vegas Raiders
- Highest Rank: RB21
- Lowest Rank: RB26
Despite the overall ineptitude of the Giants’ offense in Week 16, Tracy had a decent day, as decent as you can have when your quarterback can’t hit 50 yards. Tracy had 16 carries for 71 yards for nine points in half PPR. This week’s matchup is far more agreeable. The Raiders are in the top 10 of most fantasy points allowed to running backs, and Dart should bounce back enough to help Tracy have a more productive day. Tracy has clearly regained his role as the lead back, so volume should continue to flow, offering a nice floor for fantasy managers. If Dart can just increase pass volume and funnel some of that to Tracy, he’ll have a solid RB2 day.
My projected finish for Tracy: RB22
Kenneth Gainwell (RB – NYG) @ Cleveland Browns
- Highest Rank: RB18
- Lowest Rank: RB23
With DK Metcalf out, Gainwell will likely be Aaron Rodgers‘ favorite receiver. Gainwell already leads the Steelers in receptions, and, except Week 13 against Buffalo, he’s had a minimum of five receptions in every game since Week 11. Outside of that Buffalo game, Gainwell has been a top 12 back over that time period. This week’s matchup with Cleveland should be very agreeable for a high upside game. Cleveland has been a terrible matchup if you look at the overall numbers. However, they’ve fallen apart in recent weeks. They’ve been ripped apart by Tony Pollard, D’Andre Swift, and James Cook over the past three weeks. Gainwell is not only a safe option, but he’s also tilted into must-start territory with Metcalf out.
My projected finish for Gainwell: RB18
More Safe Starts:
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