Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’Em
Emeka Egbuka is the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 25.1% target share, 62.1 receiving yards per game, 1.98 yards per route run, and a 31% first-read share. Egbuka leads the team with 13 red zone targets and 19 deep targets. Last week, in the first game with Egbuka, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin all in the lineup, Egbuka ranked second on the team with a 20.6% target share and 23.8% first-read share while finishing with two deep targets and 64 receiving yards as the WR38 for the week. Egbuka is a solid WR2 this week against a Carolina secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, Jayden Reed‘s route share increased to 67.4%. I think he should at least see this type of workload this week, but it could continue to increase this week, and it wouldn’t shock me at all. Since Week 14, Reed has had a 21% target per route run rate with 43 receiving yards per game, 1.79 yards per route run, and a 19.4% first-read share. In those two games, Reed has one red zone target and zero deep targets. Reed is a strong flex this week that could produce WR2/3 numbers. Since Week 10, Chicago has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Wan’Dale Robinson is quietly having a monstrous season as the WR15 in fantasy points per game on pace for 95 receptions and 1,071 receiving yards. Since Week 4, in Jaxson Dart‘s starts, Robinson has had a 25.9% target share with 51.9 receiving yards per game, 1.49 yards per route run, and a 28.3% first-read share. In those nine games, Robinson has had seven red zone targets and eight deep targets. Robinson should lead the way for the Giants’ passing attack again this week, but it will be a tough matchup. Since Week 10, Minnesota has allowed the tenth-fewest PPR points per target and the tenth-lowest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.
Since Week 10, Higgins has four top 36 weekly finishes among wide receivers in weekly scoring (WR22, WR35, WR23, WR26). Since Week 10, he has had a 16.1% target share with 39.7 receiving yards, 1.79 yards per route run, and a 19.1% first-read share. In those six games, Higgins has had four red zone targets and six deep targets. Higgins is a strong flex play again this week. Since Week 10, the Raiders have allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target and the 12th-highest passer rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider
Since Week 10, Coker has had three top 24 weekly scoring finishes among wide receivers (WR24, WR15, WR24). Since Week 10, Coker has had a 14% target share with 47.8 receiving yards per game, 1.85 yards per route run, and a 21.3% first-read share. In those five games, he has only one red zone target and three deep targets. Coker is a solid flex play that could pay off in a big way this week if Bryce Young has another boom game. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
Over the last two weeks, Shaheed has finished as the WR14 and WR28 in weekly scoring with an 18.2% target share, 70.5 receiving yards per game, 2.71 yards per route run, and a 23.8% first-read share (second on the team). During these two weeks, Shaheed has had one red zone target and three deep targets. Shaheed is a surprisingly strong flex this week against a secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Concerning Starts & Players to Fade
Patrick Surtain will shadow Jakobi Meyers or Brian Thomas Jr. this week. Who will it be? That’s a great question. Considering how integral Meyers has been to the Jags’ passing attack since his arrival, I do lean that it’ll be Meyers, but I could easily be wrong about that. Since Week 11, Meyers has been the WR19 in fantasy points per game with a 23.9% target share, 62.8 receiving yards per game, 2.26 yards per route run, and a 29.6% first-read share. In those five games, Meyers has had six red zone targets and one deep target. Surtain has shadowed six times this season, following A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley, Quentin Johnston, Terry McLaurin, Christian Watson, and Ja’Marr Chase on 64.3-94.7% of their routes. Only McLaurin scored a touchdown with Surtain in tow, and none of those receivers surpassed 61 receiving yards in his coverage. Fade Meyers this week.
Since Week 13, Brian Thomas Jr. has had two top 24 wide receiver weekly finishes (WR23, WR15) while seeing a 17.8% target share with 60.3 receiving yards, 2.21 yards per route run, and a 26.2% first-read share. During this three-game stretch, he has had a 21.0 aDOT, and 50% of his targets have been downfield. This isn’t the matchup to consider flexing Brian Thomas Jr. Since Week 9, Denver has allowed the eighth-lowest deep ball completion rate and the fourth-lowest passer rating to downfield passing. If that doesn’t scare you, then I’ll also add that since Week 10, Denver has allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Sit’Em
Sit Troy Franklin this week. His route share rebounded last week with a 58.3 route share, but the coverage matchup isn’t in his favor this week. This week, he faces a Jacksonville pass defense that, since Week 11, has had the sixth-highest two-high rate (57.3%). Since Week 11, against two high, Franklin has had a 10.2% target share, 1.48 yards per route run, and a 13.3% first-read share. The Jags have allowed substantial production to perimeter wide receivers, so that could help Franklin this week. He is still a thin play when looking at the coverage matchup and his recent usage. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game and eighth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
This isn’t the week to consider flexing Kayshon Boutte. This season, Boutte has been the field stretcher for New England with his 16.7 aDOT and 11 deep targets (28.9% of his target volume). Since Week 9, Baltimore has allowed the 12th-lowest deep ball completion rate and the seventh-lowest passer rating to downfield targets. Boutte will have more spike weeks this season, but I don’t think this will be one of them.
Since Week 14, Kupp has seen his role in the Seattle passing offense take a hit as Rashid Shaheed is finally being integrated. Since Week 14, Kupp has had a 15.2% target share with 40.5 receiving yards per game, 1.42 yards per route run, and a 21.4% first-read share. Kupp has had four red zone targets and one deep target during these two games, so his touchdown equity in the offense is still strong. This isn’t the matchup to consider flexing Kupp against, though. Since Week 10, the Rams have allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
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