Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. It’s been a good start to the season as we are well into the NBA season. The holidays are among here and the NBA Cup has come and gone, so now we can really sink our teeth into the season. In my humble opinion, there’s nothing better.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. There are a bunch of games tonight, so there will be plenty to keep track of. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $12,000
- FanDuel: $12,500
It feels like a while since I’ve been able to write about Luka Doncic on the main slate, so this is truly a dream come true. The Lakers guard gets a game with a 242-point total, and it makes sense why. Utah is one of the worst teams in the NBA, making it one of the best fantasy matchups.
Utah’s defense ranks second-worst in the league while pacing out as the fourth-fastest. When the Lakers first faced Utah, they won 140-126, while Doncic managed 65 DraftKings points. He’s averaged around that on the season. In a pace-up spot against a porous defense, he contends with Nikola Jokic for the highest floor and ceiling on the slate tonight. We’ve seen five different 70+ point outings from Doncic this year, and tonight could be another one of those nights.
- DraftKings: $9,600
- FanDuel: $10,100
For big men tonight, you’ve got some options. I will always support Nikola Jokic on any given slate, even if he were facing a Space Jam super team. Victor Wembanyama is still coming back from his injury, and you also have Karl-Anthony Towns and Bam Adebayo. Alperen Sengun is my favorite option, however.
Houston’s offensive rating is third-best in the league, while the Pelicans rank third-worst. New Orleans is a pace-up spot for Sengun, and they already allow the fourth-most points to opposing centers. The Rockets center is coming off a 69-point performance, and his floor might be lower than most. He’s been consistent in recent play and is facing one of the friendliest fantasy matchups you can ask for.
- DraftKings: $10,000
- FanDuel: $10,300
It’s hard to find a hotter player than Jalen Johnson. The Hawks power forward has covered 70 fantasy points in four of his last seven games, and the other three all resulted in 50+ point performances.
I don’t project Johnson to go over 70 again tonight, but with Trae Young still expected to be out, Johnson should continue his 27% usage rate and play about 35 minutes on the court. The Pelicans are one of the worst teams in the NBA, and I expect the Hawks forward to take advantage of that.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $8,600
- FanDuel: $9,200
Considering half the Knicks are questionable or out already, it makes it a lot easier to trust Jalen Brunson tonight. The New York guard has been consistent, scoring at least 40 DraftKings points in six straight outings and hasn’t scored fewer than 29 points in any start this season.
Indiana isn’t the friendliest of fantasy options, but they also don’t have much to scare me off any opponent. The Villanova product is exactly what you look for in a cash option with a high floor, despite not breaking the bank. Obviously, injury news will impact the level of interest, but even if all Knicks end up playing, he still makes for a fine cash play.
- DraftKings: $5,600
- FanDuel: $5,600
Tyler Herro is out. Pelle Larsson is out. Norman Powell is day-to-day and listed as questionable for tonight. Brooklyn may be one of the slowest-paced teams in the league, but the opportunity and the minutes will be there for Davion Mitchell tonight.
The Miami guard has averaged over 30 minutes a pop this season, and I project around 34 minutes for him tonight. It does hurt a bit matching up with the Nets, but considering Miami is the fastest pace team in the league, that evens out to an average possession rate expected for this game. It also gives me the comfort of a high floor at a low price for Mitchell.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $10,500
- FanDuel: $10,800
If there were ever a slate where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is getting near single-digit rostership, he’s going to be a clear option for GPPs. Even with the slow pace and the low total, Gilgeous-Alexander is still capable of posting 70+ points.
Especially considering Oklahoma City is coming off its second loss of the season, you might see a little extra thunder out of the Thunder simply to reclaim their dominance. At home, Oklahoma City can push the pace, and the Clippers’ road defense sits at 26th in efficiency metrics. Gilgeous-Alexander will need an efficient outing for him to be close to an optimal choice, but he’s capable of slicing and dicing here.
- DraftKings: $8,600
- FanDuel: $8,400
It almost appears to be an off year for Paolo Banchero, who has only managed three games over 50 fantasy points. He’s been in and out of lineups with injury, but he’s been back to full minutes for two games now and appears to be finding his footing more.
Generally, I don’t know if we will see him at this price tag for the rest of the season. He’s shown capacity for ceiling performances plenty of times before, and playing on the road in Denver is going to scare a lot of people off of him. Banchero should see single-digit rostership, but his ceiling rate is much higher, making him an ideal leverage option.
- DraftKings: $6,700
- FanDuel: $6,900
This feels like quite the deep cut, but there is no pace-up spot bigger for any team today than Brooklyn against Miami. Nic Claxton has already returned multiple performances of 50+ fantasy points and covers 40 a handful of times.
With the plethora of options at center and that lack of positional versatility, there should be very low rostership on the Brooklyn big man tonight. Not only is he a pivot, but his cheap price tag offers alternate lineup builds to get extra different and fit the pay-up options for the rest of your lineup.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $3,500
- FanDuel: $3,800
With Deandre Ayton and Maxi Kleber both out, Jaxson Hayes is lining up to be arguably the best value on the slate. He will start and should see about 30 minutes on the court, having the chance to return 10X value. In his limited action sans Ayton across 18 minutes last game, Hayes efficiently returned 25 DraftKings points.
Hayes has averaged around 15 fantasy points per game at 0.92 points per minute. Even against a top-notch defensive team, Hayes would line up well. Against the Jazz, it’s hard to see a better value option. With a double-digit slate of games, I don’t expect Hayes’ rostership to go off the charts, but I do expect it to be above the field on the Lakers center tonight.
- DraftKings: $5,600
- FanDuel: $5,800
He’s not exactly bottom of the barrel in terms of value options, but Devin Vassell is still significantly cheaper than I’d expect given the matchup. The Spurs guard-forward has been playing well with two 40+ DraftKings point efforts in his last five games. It’s obviously helped with no Victor Wembanyama and now with the Spurs big man back in the fold, the usage will diminish a bit for Vassell.
Still, the matchup is too friendly to pass up on. Washington is quite the friendly defensive matchup, playing the worst defense in the NBA but with the fifth-fastest pace. He does go back and forth with some floor performances, so I’d prefer Vassell in GPPs. All in all, there are a lot of Spurs options you can feel comfortable with tonight against Washington, like Julian Champagnie, without worry of over rostership.
- DraftKings: $5,100
- FanDuel: $5,100
I went with Cameron Johnson the last time out and was burned, so it’s only right I do it again. The Nuggets guard-forward has shown his ability for 40+ point performances, and he’s priced down a bit while Denver is on their winning streak.
Orlando’s defense is tough, but they’re still a pace-up spot for Denver, and Johnson should see over 30 minutes on the court. He gets a bump playing at home, averaging three fantasy points more per game, and no offense is better in the NBA than the Nuggets at home.
Orlando, meanwhile, takes a step back, and with the total at a healthy 237, there should be plenty to go around in this matchup.
