The players below are the ones I’m looking at for NFL DFS GPP considerations this week. Salaries marked with an * indicate a strong value in pricing difference on FanDuel.
Week 17 NFL DFS GPP Advice & Picks
Quarterbacks
Tyler Shough has scored a minimum of 17 fantasy points in each of the past four games and has moved into the top 12 of quarterback rankings this week. He’s thrived against Miami, Tampa Bay, Carolina and the New York Jets — all generally friendly matchups — and this week he has a matchup with the Titans, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Despite the consistency and upside in this matchup, Shough should have extremely low rostership. He has a clear stack with Chris Olave and potential additional options in Juwan Johnson and Taysom Hill.
Liam Coen has turned Trevor Lawrence into an absolute machine with 10 touchdowns over the past two games — stunning production considering one of those games was against Denver.
Lawrence posted fine numbers in the first matchup with Indianapolis back in Week 14, but not slate-breaking numbers. However, the Colts’ defense has truly unraveled, and Lawrence has overall QB1 upside again this week. Due to the matchup and Lawrence’s hot streak, he’ll be an extremely popular play. He’s worth the chalk, and you can get different at other positions.
The NFC South is in a weird, underwhelming place with the Panthers and Buccaneers battling for the last remaining NFC playoff spot. The battle likely comes down to next week. However, the Bucs are in a rough spot, losing three straight in-division games with offensive inconsistencies.
The Dolphins are the perfect get-right game, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Baker Mayfield has his full complement of weapons, and he should have extremely low rostership, given his underwhelming performances. He’s a fairly cost-effective stack with Mike Evans and offers a strong contrarian play.
Additional Considerations
Running Backs
Despite facing one of the league’s most optimal matchups — a Buffalo defense that excels against the pass yet allows the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs — Saquon Barkley will likely be relatively low-rostered this week.
Barkley’s finally found his rhythm, and he’s had over 100 rushing yards in two out of the past three games and is on a three-game touchdown streak. Buffalo’s strength against the pass and Philadelphia’s inconsistencies in pass volume mean the Eagles’ best path to victory is leaning heavily on Barkley.
Despite the overall ineptitude of the Giants’ offense in Week 16, Tyrone Tracy Jr. had a decent day — as decent as you can have when your quarterback can’t hit 50 yards. Tracy had 16 carries for 71 yards for nine half-PPR points.
This week’s matchup is far more agreeable. The Raiders are in the top 10 of fantasy points allowed to running backs. Despite Tracy regaining his role as the Giants’ clear lead back and an excellent ceiling, he remains cost-effective with very reasonable rostership.
With DK Metcalf out, Kenneth Gainwell will likely be Aaron Rodgers‘ favorite receiver. Gainwell already leads the Steelers in receptions. Excluding Week 13 against Buffalo, he’s had a minimum of five receptions in every game since Week 11. Outside of that Buffalo game, Gainwell has been a top-12 back over that time period.
This week’s matchup with Cleveland should be very agreeable for a high upside game. Cleveland has been a terrible matchup if you look at the overall numbers. However, they’ve fallen apart in recent weeks. They’ve been ripped apart by Tony Pollard, D’Andre Swift and James Cook over the past three weeks. Despite not being the Steelers’ lead back, Gainwell has true top-five upside this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson is only in play if TreVeyon Henderson is out. Unfortunately, he’ll likely be an insanely popular play. Despite the chalk, Stevenson’s upside would be far too high to fade him against the Jets’ defense.
Audric Estime is the only back to not have a strong performance against the Jets since they traded away their defensive superstars. Stevenson was out last time the Patriots played the Jets, and that was Henderson’s three-touchdown, 30+ fantasy point performance in PPR. While Stevenson is no Henderson, he’d still offer a similar ceiling.
Additional Considerations
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs is closing out the season strong and is highly motivated by financial incentives. In Week 16, he took full advantage of Baltimore’s defense with nine receptions on 10 targets for 138 yards and a top-10 finish on the week. He’s got an opportunity to repeat that production this week with Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins and DeMario Douglas all dealing with injuries.
Boutte and Hollins haven’t practiced at all this week. In the first matchup against the Jets, Diggs had nine receptions on 11 targets for 105 yards. While he’ll garner a decent amount of rostership, Diggs won’t be one of the more popular plays and is very reasonably priced.
This one is very straightforward for all the reasons we talked about with Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars’ offense is operating at an extremely high level and has an ideal matchup this week. Parker Washington had a big game in Week 16, while Jakobi Meyers was relatively quiet.
However, that was likely a function of the matchup against Denver. This week’s matchup against Indianapolis is more agreeable for all Jaguars receivers. Meyers had a solid outing in the first matchup against Indianapolis, despite his short tenure with the team. He’ll likely be Lawrence’s top target this week, and he’s very well-priced for value.
Mike Evans (WR – TB) @ MIA | DraftKings: $6,500/FanDuel: $8,300
Mike Evans hasn’t had a ceiling game since his return, but he’s stepped back into the clear No. 1 WR role and has 21 targets in the past two games since returning.
Evans’ lack of production on those targets is less about him and more about Baker Mayfield‘s general struggles. He’s a strong stack with Mayfield, but also very much in play alone. Miami’s defense is a touchdown-friendly matchup for receivers, and Evans should find the end zone this week with strong potential for a ceiling game.
Additional Considerations
Tight Ends
Taysom Hill (TE – NO) @ TEN | DraftKings: $2,700/FanDuel: $6,800
The Saints drew the line on Audric Estime, and instead, it was Tayom Hill who led the team in carries. Chasing points is never ideal. However, given the pricing, Hill remains a strong option. He contributed on the ground and through the air as both a passer and receiver last week.
Tennessee is a fantastic matchup, and Kellen Moore should logically repeat Hill’s usage because it was so effective in Week 16. He’s a risky play more suitable for GPP because if he doesn’t contribute as a receiver, he becomes touchdown dependent.
Additional Considerations
D/ST
Tampa Bay D/ST @ Miami | DraftKings: $3,100/FanDuel: $4,500
Similar to last week, there’s a wide range of D/STs with third-string quarterback or veteran-turnover-machine matchups. Tampa’s defense is the safest option.
Quinn Ewers tried his best last week, but he’s a rookie quarterback in his second career start, and more sloppy play should be expected. The Bucs are a low-risk play this week with a high ceiling and moderate rostership. Even if De’Von Achane has a strong day, the potential for points through turnovers is extremely high.
*Note – In lineups where you aren’t playing Ashton Jeanty, New York Giants D/ST would be a solid contrarian move.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
