Corey Pieper | Fri, Jan 30th 2026, 7:18am EST

Should You Draft a Pitcher in Round 1? (2026 Fantasy Baseball)

If you clicked on this article expecting a yes or no answer, I’m sorry to disappoint you. In the words of Obi-Wan Kenobi, “Only a Sith deals in absolutes.” There are so many nuances in fantasy baseball that rarely, if ever, will you get a definitive answer to important questions.

To begin answering this question, we’ll look at three starting pitchers who are possibly worthy of a first-round selection. Then, we’ll evaluate what you’d be passing on by choosing to select a pitcher instead. Finally, we’ll break it down briefly via different league types.

Should You Draft a Pitcher in Round 1?

Tarik Skubal (SP – DET)

Tarik Skubal has been the best pitcher on the planet the last two seasons, and this is more than about him simply being recognized with two Cy Young Awards. If you are drafting a starting pitcher early, you are doing so with the intention of getting a boost in the four pitching categories of wins, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.

Since the start of 2024, Skubal has led qualified pitchers in three of those categories. He leads in strikeouts with 469. We’ll get to who is second in a bit.

Skubal also leads in both ERA and WHIP by a rather substantial margin. His ERA combined over the last two seasons is only 2.30. The next lowest mark is Zack Wheeler‘s 2.60. Skubal’s low ERA metrics are fully supported by his league-leading FIP in the last two seasons.

Skubal’s league-leading WHIP over the previous two seasons is 0.91. Second place at that time is Logan Gilbert at 0.94. The advantage is even more substantial when you consider that he has also pitched the second-most innings in the last two seasons (387.1).

The one category that Skubal hasn’t led over the last two seasons is wins. He’s close, though. Carlos Rodon leads the way with 34 wins. Skubal is second with 31.

If you are going to select a pitcher early, he has to be a difference-maker. Skubal is the definition of a difference-maker as a pitcher.

Paul Skenes (SP – PIT)

Putting a projection on what Paul Skenes is capable of almost feels unfair to him. Even his most ardent supporter couldn’t have possibly projected how truly dominant he has been through his first season and a half in Major League Baseball.

Skenes hasn’t been in the Majors long enough to be a qualified starter over the last two seasons. We need to drop the playing time qualification to 300 innings pitched to include him. It would be a concern if it were injury-related, but that isn’t the case. He wasn’t called up until May of 2024, and the Pirates have been cautious with him.

When Skenes has been on the mound, you could make the case that he has been every bit the pitcher that Skubal has been. Over the first 320.2 innings of his career, Skenes has an absurdly low 1.96 ERA. Remember, Skubal leads qualified pitchers with a 2.30 ERA. Skenes’ WHIP is also among the five best at only 0.95.

While Skenes’ total strikeouts are outside of the top 10 amongst pitchers the last two seasons, it’s due to the fewer innings. On a per-inning basis, he is fifth in strikeouts per nine innings since coming to the Major Leagues.

If there is a concern with Skenes, it’s his potential for wins. They are a fluky stat, as many of the variables are largely outside a pitcher’s control. Last season, Skenes started 22 games, in which he either lost or took a no-decision. In those games, he had a 2.83 ERA, showing how he could have easily won more starts.

Skenes is another pitcher who could go in the first round.

Garrett Crochet (SP – BOS)

The final starting pitcher you could make a case for being a first-round selection is Garrett Crochet.

The question going into 2025 with Crochet was surrounding workload, given his injury history. While injuries can flare up again at any time, he proved last season that a major workload is within his range of outcomes. Crochet was one of only three pitchers to eclipse 200 innings pitched (205).

Last season, Crochet showed that he can be a first-round caliber starting pitcher. He led the Majors in strikeouts with 255. His strikeouts are a bankable skill. Even though Crochet is 18th in innings pitched the last two seasons, only Skubal has more strikeouts.

It’s not just about strikeouts with Crochet, though. He also pitched to a 2.59 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Both new career-best marks that are fully supported by the underlying metrics. That suggests a repeat of each is possible.

One aspect of Crochet’s 2025 unlikely to repeat is the 18 wins. We already discussed the flukiness of not earning wins with Skenes. Crochet could pitch to the same level in 2026 and win only half as many games.

While Crochet doesn’t have an extensive track record, he possesses the skills of a first-round pitcher.

What Are You Passing Up?

Looking at FantasyPros’ average draft position (ADP) shows the strength of the top five options. It’s hard to envision a scenario where you would pass on those top options for a pitcher. Once you reach six, though, pitchers come into play, as each of the three pitchers above has an early ADP inside of the top 12.

To assess whether or not it’s worth it to draft a pitcher in the first round, we have to assess what we are passing up. First, a few basic observations of hitters rather than pitchers. The first-round quality hitters can help you in five categories as opposed to the four categories of pitchers. They also play four to five times as many games.

With that in mind, let’s look at batters with an ADP from six through 15. I stopped at 15 as those would be the three players that would boost into the first round without taking a pitcher. Those batters were Corbin Carroll, Ronald Acuna Jr., Elly De La Cruz, Julio Rodriguez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Junior Caminero, Cal Raleigh and Francisco Lindor. If you average out their production from last season, it’s a truly remarkable player (even with Acuna playing just over half a season):

103 Runs
34 Home Runs
85 RBI
24 Stolen Bases
.264 Batting Average

By the time you reach the third round, finding a player who can replicate that production is nearly impossible. That can be said of the pitching production Skubal, Skenes and Crochet offer as well.

League Types

Here is where we’ll provide a brief overview of the viability of selecting a pitcher in the first round for different league formats.

Rotisserie Leagues — In a rotisserie league with 10 or fewer teams, do not take a pitcher in the first round. If you play in a larger league, it becomes more of a possibility. By the time you reach 15-team status, all three of the pitchers mentioned above will be selected. Just be aware that taking a pitcher that early means making up ground in the other early rounds on a hitting deficit.
Points Leagues — The league format where it is most beneficial to take a pitcher in the first round is a points league. In most formats, every out recorded is one-third of a point, with a strikeout being worth an additional point. That makes the top pitchers extremely valuable.
Head-to-Head Categories Leagues — A lot depends on what categories are in your league. If we assume the traditional rotisserie league categories, then you can pass on starting pitchers in round one. There is so much variability from week to week in head-to-head categories leagues that I want to take players who will play six or seven days per week instead of getting one start.

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