4 Fantasy Baseball Fallers (2026)

Pitchers and catchers have reported for every MLB team. Spring training is just around the corner. Unfortunately, injury news has already surfaced for players such as Corbin Carroll, Francisco Lindor, Jackson Holliday, Anthony Santander, Spencer Schwellenbach, Shane Bieber and others. I didn’t include any injured players among the following fantasy baseball risers and fallers. The highlighted players were four fallers in average draft position (ADP) from January 28 to February 12, and all have a top-90 ADP, putting them within the first eight rounds of 12-team mixed leagues.

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

Matt Olson (1B – ATL): 36.2 ADP on 1/28 and 41.4 ADP on 2/14

Matt Olson was the biggest faller in the top-50 picks, dipping 5.2 selections. Since swatting a career-high 54 homers in 2023, capping off a three-year span of 127 bombs with at least 34 in each season, he’s posted precisely 29 homers in back-to-back seasons.

On the plus side, Olson has played 162 games in all four seasons with the Braves. He stays healthy and plays every day. Sadly, his power slide has put pressure on his batting average to determine his fantasy value. Olson is a stellar source of run production, but he had a .247 batting average in 2024 and a .272 batting average in 2025.

His BABIP almost entirely drove the difference between the two seasons. Olson had a .293 BABIP in 2024 and .333 in 2025. Olson’s career BABIP is .289. The veteran left-handed batter had a .242 xBA in 2024 and a .249 xBA in 2025. Last year’s batting average looks like a fluke, and his fall is warranted.

Randy Arozarena (OF – SEA): 78.8 ADP on 1/28 and 86.6 ADP on 2/14

In his age-30 season, Randy Arozarena hit a career-high 27 homers, tied his career high with 95 runs and finished with 31 stolen bases – one shy of his career-high 32 in 2022. He finished as the 41st-ranked hitter by our VBR metric, and he’s the 56th-ranked hitter in ADP.

Gamers are justifiably baking some regression into his 2026 profile. Arozarena’s batted-ball profile in 2025 wasn’t too dissimilar to 2023, when he hit 23 homers in 654 plate appearances. He needed a career-high 707 plate appearances to set his new high for blasts. The right-handed-hitting outfielder’s .238 batting average last year was also the second-lowest mark of his career after setting a career low at .219 in 2024. He had a .213 xBA in 2024 and a .227 xBA in 2025. Arozarena will more than likely be a batting average liability.

He’ll also probably steal fewer bases this season. Arozarena was caught stealing only six times in 37 attempts last year after getting caught at least 10 times in each season from 2021 to 2024. Another 20-20 season is a reasonable expectation for Arozarena. Still, his new ADP does a better job of accounting for regression and his batting average.

Corey Seager (SS – TEX): 84.6 ADP on 1/28 and 89.6 ADP on 2/14

I recently highlighted Corey Seager as a draft target. Seager was an excellent selection at his previous ADP, and he’s an even more appealing buy at his new ADP. I won’t rehash why I love Seager as a draft target. Readers should check out that piece.

Bo Bichette (SS – NYM): 85.4 ADP on 1/28 and 88.4 ADP on 2/14

Bo Bichette bounced back in 2025 from an injury-shortened and career-worst 2024 campaign. Bichette ripped off a .311 batting average and .295 xBA in 628 plate appearances. He had a career-low 14.5 K%, supporting the robust batting average.

Sadly, Bichette’s 18 homers were down from his three-year stretch of popping 29, 24 and 20 in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively. He’s also no longer an asset in stolen bases. He swiped a career-high 25 in his first full season in the Majors in 2021, but Bichette has stolen 13, five, five and four since then.

The long-time shortstop will need to learn the hot corner for the Mets. Hopefully, learning a new position won’t impact his performance at the dish. Still, Bichette’s profile is batting-average heavy, with modest across-the-board production behind it. The Zeile projections peg Bichette for 77 runs, 18 homers, 79 RBIs, six stolen bases and a .286 batting average. Bichette could stand to fall a little further, namely behind Seager.