Fantasy baseball is fun, until it isn’t. We’ve all been there. After the draft, you feel great about your team. Maybe you win the first few weeks. All of a sudden, your first round pick goes on the Injured List (IL). The next day, your ace needs Tommy John surgery.
Injuries have the potential to derail your season. Although injuries are impossible to predict, there are some unfortunately often injured players whose history can be considered on draft day. There are other players who have had typically healthy careers, yet enter 2026 with some red flags.
Read below to learn about the biggest injury risks headed into the draft.
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Fantasy Baseball Draft Day Injury Risks to Avoid
Francisco Lindor (SS – NYM | ADP: 16
Francisco Lindor is considered a reliable superstar for a reason. 2025 was his fourth consecutive season playing over 150 games, and receiving MVP votes. The 32-year-old shortstop launched over 25 home runs every season in this period. Although Lindor has been incredible for so long, it is worth noting that he suffered a stress reaction in his hamate bone and is being evaluated.
The Mets are optimistic their star player will be available for Opening Day. This is good news for baseball, but a hamate injury is a red flag for fantasy managers. It is common belief that players suffering hamate issues will lose power. Although a 2020 American Journal of Sports Medicine study found about 80% of players returned to form soon after hamate surgery, the risk for Lindor is still there. Consider lowering Lindor on your draft rankings, but not too far.
*See also Corbin Carroll and Jackson Holliday, who suffered broken hamates and are in similar situations*
Logan Gilbert (SP – SEA) | ADP: 38
Logan Gilbert is entering the season with a clean bill of health. On paper, Gilbert is ready to lead the excellent Mariners’ rotation to another great year. This very well could be the case. I am no doctor. However, it is important to remember that Gilbert suffered a right elbow flexor strain last season and missed over a month and a half between May and June.
In a small sample size of six starts before his injury, Gilbert had an ERA of 2.37. In his 19 starts after the injury, he had an ERA of 3.75. This downturn was reflected in the postseason, where Gilbert had an ERA of 4.20 in four appearances.
The 28-year-old missed significant time last season due to an elbow injury. That is never, ever, a good sign for a pitcher. It could mean nothing. Regardless, it is worthwhile to find a starter with less injury risk this high up in the draft, especially because Gilbert is considered fully healthy.
Byron Buxton (OF – MIN) | ADP: 59
Byron Buxton put together a phenomenal 2025. He earned a Silver Slugger award and MVP votes, leading the Twins offense. Buxton played in 126 games last season, launching 35 home runs with an OPS+ of 136. The 32-year-old reminded fantasy managers of why he has remained highly-rated despite missing substantial time every season besides 2017.
Although Buxton had a nice season, his injuries even last year should not be overlooked. He missed time due to head, elbow, hand, knee, and side injuries. It seems far-fetched to expect Buxton to play another semi-healthy season after he played 102 games in 2024, 85 games in 2023, 92 games in 2022, and 61 games in 2021.
Buxton’s season and health risk do not justify his jump in ADP from 210 last year to 59 this season.
Jordan Westburg (3B – BAL) | ADP: 119
Jordan Westburg has proven himself to be an immensely talented player, when healthy. Health is the key for Westburg, and he cannot seem to find the lock. It was recently announced that the infielder is suffering from a right oblique injury and will miss the beginning of Spring Training.
The injury does not seem all that serious, but wear-and-tear has been the story for Westburg. He only played 107 games in 2024, and only played 85 games in 2025. The 2024 All-Star brings value to fantasy lineups, but the 26-year-old is yet to prove that he can stay on the diamond.
Shane Bieber (SP – TOR) | ADP: 157
Shane Bieber had an inspiring return to form in 2025. He missed significant time in 2023 due to elbow soreness, received Tommy John surgery in April 2024, and made his MLB return in August 2025.
After years of injuries, Bieber reminded the league what he is capable of. He threw 40.1 innings to a 3.57 ERA and a 1.017 WHIP. This is a small, yet promising sample size that establishes Bieber as a solid sleeper for 2026. However, Bieber’s ramp-up for Spring Training will be delayed due to nagging right forearm fatigue — not an encouraging sign for the 30-year-old. In addition, Bieber accepted a $16 million player option this offseason from the Blue Jays, a somewhat surprising move. If healthy, Bieber could have most likely earned more in the open market. Bieber not testing the open market could mean nothing. However, it does not inspire confidence for his season.
Considering Bieber’s injury history, player option, and the correlation between forearm injuries and UCL injuries, it might be a good idea to avoid Bieber this time around.
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