If you are new to the world of high-stakes fantasy baseball, the drafts can be overwhelming when you first sit down at the table. It is not just the larger amounts of money being played for or the amazing talent drafting against you that can be jarring, but the way rosters are constructed, which is different from your average fantasy league.
In my last piece on high-stakes leagues, we looked at how to approach hitters. In this article, we will talk about my approach to the first few rounds of a high-stakes draft.
Fantasy Baseball High-Stakes Strategy: Early Rounds
Draft Slot
Before we jump into what types of players we should target or avoid, let’s talk about KDS. First of all, what is KDS? It stands for Kentucky Derby Style, and it is how you pick your draft slot. In this format, you rank your preferred draft slot in order. So, in a 15-team league, you might set up your draft preference as 2, 14, 1, 10, 11, 7, 13, 4, 6, 12, 5, 3, 15, 9, 8.
Everyone has a preferred spot in the draft they like, and this format gives you a better chance to land that pick, as opposed to a random draw. There are two ways to look at it. First, where are the players most likely to land you want most in the first round?
If you really want Julio Rodriguez, and his average draft position (ADP) is around pick 10 overall, you can probably get him at pick eight or pick nine, so there is no reason to put picks 1-7 high in your KDS order. There is a clear top player in Shohei Ohtani, but the next five or six players are pretty interchangeable, so I would most likely have my KDS along the lines of 1, 7, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15.
Most likely, I will either end up with Ohtani or whoever falls to me in the middle of the draft while having an earlier pick than the front of the draft in the second round. This brings me to the other way to look at it. You will get a stud in the first round no matter what, so look for where the big drop-offs are in the second and third rounds.
If you think there are only 20 stud players, maybe you set your KDS order to target your second-round pick at 20. If you think there is a massive difference between the top 35 players and players 36-45, then you want to make sure you get your third-round pick before pick 36. These are important things to think about with your KDS selection.
Finally, some people really like picking on the turn or hate it. If you don’t feel comfortable with drafting on one end of the other, prioritize the middle of the draft.
Start at the End
What are you looking for in terms of drafting early? I think it is counterintuitive, but when you are thinking about who to draft, you should look at the end of the draft before the beginning.
After you have done your player analysis, you should have a list of players you feel are undervalued at either specific positions or for certain categories.
For example, let’s say you have a player going late in the draft that you love at second base. If that’s the case, you don’t need to worry as much about targeting a player like Ketel Marte. If you feel there is a lot of cheap speed at the end of the draft, focus on power and batting average at the top of the draft. Having an endgame strategy should inform your early draft strategy.
Targets
Remember, you need to stay balanced because of the overalls in the majority of these contests. Below are the 80th percentile targets for last season’s National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) Main Event.
Hitters
| Runs | Home Runs | RBI | Stolen Baes | Batting Average |
| 1,059 | 308 | 1,034 | 184 | 0.2564 |
Pitchers
| Strikeouts | Wins | Saves | ERA | WHIP |
| 1,370 | 90 | 67 | 3.61 | 1.18 |
Balance is important, especially in these early rounds, as it allows you more options to target in later rounds. I like to leave my first five rounds with at least two offensive players that contribute in all five categories, a closer and a starting pitcher.
Usually, I draft two starters in the first five rounds but am open to pushing my second starter down a round or two, especially if I get an ace I feel really confident in, like Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet.
Risk Tolerance
One of the most important things to think about when drafting early is risk tolerance. A lot of people think the best way to win a high-stakes league is by shooting for high-risk upside. The opposite is true. Volume is the best way to win in these formats.
Players like Jarren Duran are often pushed down in March drafts because they aren’t as sexy, while players like Jazz Chisholm Jr. rise. However, the fact that Duran is more likely to deliver 650-700 plate appearances means he is a much better bet.
You want to draft high-risk gambles, but take them later and don’t compound the risk. This means that if you draft a risky player, especially early, don’t take on a bunch more. Remember, when you add or multiply risky bets, it is much less likely that they all hit.
In Conclusion
Finally, you should have a plan when you enter your draft. After finding out my draft spot, I make decision trees to mock who should be available within my first 5-10 rounds and who I would take.
I also make backup plans in case I get sniped. The more prepared you are, the better your draft will go.
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