Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. We are done with the NFL and are inching closer to the NBA All-Star break, and we are also finally seeing some warmer weather. With the NFL wrapped up, the NBA should take center stage, where hopefully DraftKings and FanDuel will push bigger contests for casuals to play.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a solid seven-game slate tonight, so you shouldn’t have to go too crazy when differentiating your lineups. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $12,100
- FanDuel: $12,600
We’re officially back into Nikola Jokic land. After working his way back to full-time status from his injury, I’m comfortable eating his chalk and price for my lineups. Even while limited, Jokic put up 55+ fantasy points in four of his last five games, with a 67- and 79-point effort.
Denver hosts Cleveland tonight, where the spread is tight and the total is high. This is a game where I imagine Jokic is the focus even more so than he usually is, where he’ll likely get a few more minutes. What’s great is that with the trade deadline shakeup, we have a lot of value on this slate, so it will be easy to pay up for Jokic. I imagine he will be one of the highest rostered players on the slate tonight, so he may be a high-end GPP fade for leverage. Don’t overthink it much and try to get him into your lineups.
- DraftKings: $10,700
- FanDuel: $11,600
Next on the docket, we have Jalen Johnson. My guy has been balling of late with two 70+ fantasy point outings in his last three games and a 64-point effort sandwiched in between. There’s no reason he should be this cheap. While FanDuel has caught up more, I still like him on both sites. Johnson’s usage is at 30% over the last two weeks while playing 38 minutes a night.
Johnson has a high ceiling and a solid floor. He’s gone over 58 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games, and I won’t be surprised if he does so again tonight, even against Minnesota.
- DraftKings: $7,700
- FanDuel: $8,900
To go a bit cheaper and weirder for you, I’m locked in on Kevin Porter Jr. tonight. Even just looking at his price difference from DraftKings to FanDuel gives me confidence in making him a core play across my DraftKings slates tonight.
With no Giannis Antetokounmpo, Porter balled out until his injury. And now that he’s returned, it doesn’t seem like he’s missed a beat. The Bucks guard has put up 47+ point efforts in consecutive games, and despite the difficult matchup, he’s capable of doing it a third time. We might see Porter’s price get up to $9,000 at one point this year on DraftKings. I’m buying stock now.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $5,600
- FanDuel: $5,800
After coming over from Boston, Anfernee Simons has taken over backcourt duties for the Bulls. In his two games so far, he’s gone over 30 fantasy points, and I expect him to do so again tonight, projecting him around 32. It’s a pace down spot against Brooklyn, but remember that Simons never played for a fast-paced team to begin with, so it’s not much of a difference based on his historical pricing.
Brooklyn’s bottom-five defense is the difference. There is an easy opportunity here for an efficient outing that puts Simons over 40 fantasy points tonight, but even locking him in for 30 makes him a solid cash play with his newfound opportunity.
- DraftKings: $6,800
- FanDuel: $7,600
As double-digit favorites against a Milwaukee defense ranked in the bottom seven in the league over their last 15 games, we have Jalen Suggs. The Orlando guard has been consistent, going over 30 fantasy points in five of his last six games with some incredible ceiling performances thrown in there.
I expect Suggs to play around 30 minutes, and his usage rate has been steady at around 22% a night. Milwaukee has also been particularly friendly to point guards recently, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the position in the same 15-game time span. Suggs should get plenty of fill here, and his sub-$7,000 pricing is friendly enough to open up options elsewhere on the slate.
- DraftKings: $8,200
- FanDuel: $8,100
I can’t believe I’m putting a New Orleans player in my cash section, but between Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson, I like both of their floors this evening against Sacramento’s backups. We’ll get to value options late, but, spoiler alert, the Kings are missing a lot of players tonight and potentially even more if Domantas Sabonis misses.
I mean, has New Orleans been a seven-point favorite to anyone this year? Regardless of the matchup, the Pelicans guard has been solid. Murphy has put up 30+ fantasy points in all but one of his last 21 outings. He’s also capable of getting to 70, as shown against Milwaukee, so I don’t mind him in GPPs either. Suggs’ 38 minutes a night and 30% usage rate provide him with a comfortable floor, despite the name brand of his team.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $10,000
- FanDuel: $10,600
With all the focus on Nikola Jokic, a lot of the other spend-up options will be low-rostered to the point where you can argue to include a lot of players as GPP options. My main advice is to get creative with your roster builds by trying to get Jokic and one of these spend-up options in your lineups because there’s a chance those two alone could net you 160 fantasy points.
My choice for such a build is Cade Cunningham. While Charlotte has been solid of late, their offense is what carries it. I’m not sure they have anyone who can stop Cunningham and his 32% usage rate and 35 minutes of play. With the close spread this game projects, the Oklahoma State product might end up getting additional run late, only boosting his projection more.
- DraftKings: $8,800
- FanDuel: $8,300
All things considered, I’m shocked this game isn’t getting more rostership across the board. I understand there are a lot of fun games tonight, fantasy-wise, but, shockingly, Miami-Utah isn’t a chalk game. Of course, a lot is subject to change, and rostership will ebb and flow as we get closer to lock, but I will likely be overweight on the Heat and Jazz tonight.
Leading that charge is Bam Adebayo. Utah has allowed the most overall fantasy points to opponents this year while allowing the most to opposing centers over their last 15 games. This game total sits over 240 with the fast pace and bad defense, where Adebayo should play 32 minutes with a 24% usage rate. On FanDuel, he’s going to be a bit more chalky, but if DraftKings doesn’t catch up, he’s my favorite leverage play of the slate.
- DraftKings: $9,000
- FanDuel: $9,200
As my third GPP play, we have James Harden. I expect this game to be and back and forth fiasco, giving Harden a lot of run. With him getting his feet wet with his new team, I don’t know if Harden will necessarily be the go-to, takeover guy.
With that said, he’s under double-digit rostership, and I simply think that’s off. I love him in cash, with 13 of his last 14 games going over 40 points, and he still has a clear ceiling output with two 60+ point efforts in his last six games. With Cleveland, rotation is a bit up in the air, but that means you can take advantage if it ends up being higher than expected.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $3,800
- FanDuel: $4,600
With the tank-a-thon officially on after the trade deadline, there’s going to be a ton of value over the next few days as DFS sites adjust to price, minutes and rotations for a lot of teams. Combine that with injury and rest days, and you have a lot of value rise to the top for any given slate.
With no Malik Monk, Zach LaVine and De’Andre Hunter, Devin Carter is a name that comes up as a clear value option tonight. Over his last three games, he’s played over 22 minutes each night while returning an average of 29 fantasy points a night. Even projecting him under that can give him 6X return on investment (ROI) against a sub-par New Orleans defense. Dylan Cardwell is another Sacramento piece I like tonight who should return solid value
- DraftKings: $4,900
- FanDuel: $4,800
Selecting options from Brooklyn tonight is like playing darts. There is a bullseye, we’re just not sure who it is. There are a lot of value options for the Nets tonight against Chicago, but none more valuable than Danny Wolf on the early projections. To go with it, you have Ziare Williams, Jalen Wilson, Drake Powell and Nolan Traore all expected to 5X their price tag.
The Bulls have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opponents across the board over their last 15 games and are obviously a massive pace-up spot tonight for the Nets. Wolf is expected to start and play 25+ minutes. He softly projects for around 25 fantasy points with a much more reasonable output of 30+ points. Feel free to mix and match your Brooklyn value pieces, but Wolf will be a highly rostered option without a doubt.
- DraftKings: $4,100
- FanDuel: $4,900
Finally, we have Jeremiah Fears. I mentioned the value Kings players provide, but New Orleans gets an equally friendly matchup at home tonight. The Kings have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points over their last 15 games and are underdogs to the Pelicans by a full seven points.
Sacramento is decimated right now, so Fears, along with Herb Jones, are solid, lower-priced value options. The Pelicans guard is coming off playing 28 minutes. Even if he sniffs that again, he should be able to return 6X value here.
