14 Consensus Sleepers & Busts (2026 Fantasy Baseball)

Finding sleepers and avoiding busts is one of the biggest edges you can create on draft day. Anyone can draft the obvious stars, but fantasy championships are usually decided by the managers who uncover value before the rest of the room catches on and avoid paying for production that’s unlikely to repeat.

Every year, a handful of players smash their ADP thanks to changing roles, improved skills, or simply better health. At the same time, some big-name players fail to justify their draft price as regression, declining skills, or playing-time concerns quietly creep in.

To help identify both sides of that equation, we asked our Featured Pros to highlight the sleepers they’re targeting and the busts they’re avoiding in 2026 drafts. Their insights can help you uncover undervalued players who could outperform expectations and steer clear of the landmines that can derail a fantasy roster.

Consensus Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Busts

Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy baseball sleeper and why?

JJ Wetherholt (2B, 3B, SS – STL)

“I expect JJ Wetherholt to be the starting second baseman for the Cardinals come Opening Day. His current ADP of 251 is an extreme value for a player with his skill set and minor-league accomplishments. Between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Wetherholt combined for .306/.425/.510 slash with a .931 OPS. He has a great approach, makes consistent contact, has legit pop, and 20-SB speed. I expect him to be at least a .275 hitter with 15/20 upside, and considering the lack of depth at second base, he could be a huge asset in 2026. And by the way, he’s off to a hot start this spring, hitting .300 with a 1.000 OPS in his first 10 AB’s. The guy is ready.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

Ryan Waldschmidt (OF – ARI)

“Ryan Waldschmidt is going to be the biggest fantasy sleeper. The reason is quite simple: he’s one of the very few players actually being slept on while everyone chases the would-be sleepers of Konor Griffin, Kevin McGonigle, Max Clark, and more. His blend of power, speed, and great contact rates, plus ample opportunity and a great ballpark, could not only make Waldschmidt an amazing fantasy asset but also a dark horse for NL Rookie of the Year.”
– Chad Simpson (Fantasy Six Pack)

Jac Caglianone (1B, OF – KC)

“Jac Caglianone’s rookie season was forgettable, after hitting just .157. He showed some signs of life, though, with a 12% barrel rate, a 22% strikeout rate, and incredible bat speed. It’s spring training, but we’re seeing some encouraging signs from Jac with a 25% barrel rate early in March, and one of the hardest hit balls in the Statcast era at 120.2 MPH. If we see some of these spring improvements carry over to the regular season, Jac will easily be a 30+ home run hitter, going well outside the top 200 in drafts.”
– Chris Welsh (FantasyPros)

Jacob Melton (OF – TB)

“Jacob Melton had a forgettable debut with Houston, hitting .157 over 78 plate appearances. He is now with Tampa Bay and will have a chance to earn an everyday role, showcasing his plus power and speed. In a limited time, he showcased his 90th percentile sprint speed by stealing seven bases. The Rays led the majors in SB attempts per game last year and will keep the green light on for him. Melton is off to a strong spring and could easily be a five-category contributor available at the end of fantasy drafts.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)

Emmet Sheehan (SP – LAD)

“Emmet Sheehan is one of the top sleepers. In 15 games last season, he had a 2.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 30.6% strikeout rate, and 7.6% walk rate. He was in the 88th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, Whiff rate, chase rate, and strikeout percentage. He had a 16.2% swinging strike rate. All the ingredients are there for Sheehan to throw 150 innings and be one of the best values.”
– Adam Ronis (Sirius XM)

Jackson Holliday (2B – BAL)

“The player I expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy baseball sleeper is Jackson Holliday of the Baltimore Orioles. I realize he is behind schedule after removing a fractured hook of the hamate in his right hand, but he should be ready within the first couple of weeks of the regular season. Holliday entered the league with massive expectations as the #1 overall prospect in baseball, but his first taste of MLB pitching was uneven. In fantasy, that usually creates a draft discount the following season, and this is typically when players often break out. The underlying skill set is there, and you can get him at a post-hype discount. He has an elite underlying skill set and plays in a loaded lineup. If it all comes together for Jackson Holliday, I am forecasting him for a 286 BA, 20 HR, 20 SB, 100 Runs, and 80 RBI.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)

MacKenzie Gore (SP – TEX)

“Unfortunately, “sleeper” has become a distorted term. When EVERYONE identifies sleepers, their profiles rise, and before you know it, they are being overdrafted. Keep in mind that we are compiling this list on March 5th. I believe Oneil Cruz (ADP of 88.4) and Eugenio Suarez (90) are underappreciated, but not sleepers. MacKenzie Gore at pick 146.6 is. He has struck out more than a batter per inning in every season he has pitched, and 2026 isn’t going to change that trend. His “stuff” is inarguably filthy. His command is also inarguable… not so good. He walks too many batters, gets himself in too many difficult positions, and it has killed his innings pitched and ratios. If he could find a way to go from approximately 2.5 walks per 9 to something closer to 1.5, he’d be a Cy Young Candidate and the Rangers would have the breakout Ace of the 2026 season with one of those special “200+” K guys that I absolutely love and always prioritize on draft day. I like Jackson Holliday (152.2) and Ceddanne Rafaela (153.3), and especially Gore at 146.6 as fantastic values sitting around the 150 overall price range. If this is too high for the label “sleeper,” then take a peak at Milwaukee Brewer SP Logan Henderson (289.2) or St Louis Cardinal SS Masyn Winn (289.4) or Cleveland Guardian SP/RP Joey Cantillo (296.8), especially in points leagues, where his potential double-starts could add extra value in a RP slot due to his dual-position eligibility. I love SP/RP guys. A niche difference maker in competitive, deep leagues.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)

Fantasy Baseball Busts

Who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy baseball bust and why?

Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF – CHC)

“I can’t get behind Pete Crow-Armstrong as a Top 30 player. I know, he had a breakout first half and was a league winner in many season-long roto leagues with his 30/30 season. However, he still does NOT hit left-handed pitching (.188 BA/.594 OPS vs LHP last season), and he collapsed in the second half (just 6 HR and a .216 BA and .634 OPS after the break). He’s always struggled against lefties, and I fear the league caught up to him in a big way after his hot start. I would rather have Wyatt Langford or Roman Anthony 20 picks later.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)

Ben Rice (C, 1B – NYY)

“Ben Rice will be this year’s biggest fantasy bust. People are paying insane prices to reach up and draft Rice when they can shave 5-8 home runs off his total and get the same catching profile 20+ rounds later. Home runs at catcher aren’t exactly the difference maker at the position, so that amount is so negligible. Go out and get Salvador Perez, Ryan Jeffers, Gabriel Moreno, and more for a fraction of the price.”
– Chad Simpson (Fantasy Six Pack)

Framber Valdez (SP – DET)

“Framber Valdez was solid last year with 13 wins in 192 innings and a 3.66 ERA. Despite the solid year, there were some concerning signs outside of him, crossing up his catcher and struggling to find a deal in free agency. His K% dropped to 23.3%, which was the lowest since 2021. His walk rate rose to 8.5%, also the biggest since 2021, and had an expected ERA higher than his actual ERA. He really struggled in the second half of the season, where his ERA went from a first half of 2.75 to a second half of 5.20. His new home in Detroit has around the same ballpark factor as Houston, according to Baseball Savant. According to the FantasyPros consensus ADP, he is going 78 overall. I don’t know if the floor and ceiling of value matchup for him to be a top-100 pitcher, and there are way too many better deals 30-50 spots lower.”
– Chris Welsh (FantasyPros)

Jose Altuve (2B, OF – HOU)

“Jose Altuve is still being drafted as a consensus top-100 pick based on name recognition, but his time as a top fantasy contributor is over. The speed is almost completely gone, as he stole 10 bases compared to 6 times caught stealing. He hit .265, but his .237 xBA was in the bottom quarter of the league. His saving grace was 26 HR, but it’s a small miracle he managed that based on his poor hard-hit rates and exit velocity. With no home defensively and diminishing returns on offense, Altuve could be in line for fewer PAs, lower counting stats, and a bust of a season.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)

Oneil Cruz (OF – PIT)

“Oneil Cruz will disappoint once again. You don’t get extra points for hitting the ball hard. He has power and speed, but making consistent contact is a problem. He batted. 200 last season and is a career .233 hitter. He hasn’t hit more than 21 home runs in a season and hasn’t had a strikeout rate of lower than 30.2% in the three seasons he has played at least 87 games. He is a career .172 hitter against left-handers. While the stolen bases are nice, the average is crushing.”
– Adam Ronis (Sirius XM)

Luis Robert Jr. (OF – NYM)

“The one player most likely to be the biggest fantasy baseball bust this year is Luis Robert Jr. of the New York Mets. Robert was traded from the Chicago White Sox to the Mets in January 2026 in exchange for Luisangel Acuña and pitching prospect Truman Pauley. He has a history of injuries and missed time in multiple seasons. He was limited to 110 games in 2025 due to a hamstring injury. He has recently experienced a decline in production. Last season, he hit .223 with 14 HR, far below his peak in 2023. The move to the Mets actually raises his fantasy draft cost (better lineup, more hype), which can increase bust risk if he doesn’t bounce back.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)

Cal Raleigh (C – SEA)

“I determine Bust/Sleeper decisions based on both ADP and production expectations, rather than a black and white, is he going to be truly atrocious in 2026 or not? Cal Raleigh is going to be good enough even when he regresses from what was an insane 2025. Everyone knows this. That’s not why I am projecting him as a bust. Regression is standard. I’m projecting him as a bust because he currently has an ADP of 13.4, while I expect him to swat somewhere between 25-30 home runs and bat .210 to .220 with a smidgeon of stolen bases for flavor. To draft someone at the top of the second round when he very possibly could perform something closer to Austin Wells or Yainer Diaz, who can be selected somewhere around 190 to 210, qualifies as a bust and a deep hole to dig yourself out of after draft day. Raleigh is likely to hit somewhere between 30-35 home runs while batting somewhere around .215-.235. That’s what he has typically been, and that’s what he will go back to being in 2026, with one major concern. Injuries. Catchers are exponentially more susceptible to significant regression than any other position in any other sport. It often happens within the same season, one half to the other, nevermind year-to-year. Raleigh’s going to produce less because of the wear and tear of playing such a physically pounding position, and he is likely, not possibly, but likely to miss games due to injury and fatigue after such a monstrous and grueling 2025. Don’t buy into the consensus trap. “Even if he regresses significantly, he is still going to hit 45 home runs with 10 stolen bases and a .245 batting average.” No No No. Look at his career numbers and HOPE that he can match THAT this year. THEN, think about whether you want to take on the risk of him playing 70-90 games while missing 70-90 while drafting him in the Top 15. If he’s available after Jackson Holliday in the 150s, take the upside risk. Otherwise, let someone else, at minimum, overpay for him and absorb the enormous risk that 2026 becomes a lost season entirely.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)