3 Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates (2026)

It can be hard to differentiate between a breakout and a sleeper. Sleepers are all about the value you spend to acquire them. By that definition, it’s almost impossible to be a sleeper inside the top 150 picks in fantasy baseball average draft position (ADP). That’s not the case with a breakout. With that in mind, let’s look at fantasy baseball breakout candidates for 2026.

Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates

Chase Burns (SP – CIN)

Chase Burns is the sophomore pitcher with the most potential to break out this season.

Burns wasn’t called to the Major Leagues until the end of June. Then, in early August, an elbow injury put him on the injured list (IL) for another month. When he returned in September, it was as a reliever. Because of that, he only pitched 43 innings in the Majors. Otherwise, he may have already been considered a breakout.

If you drop the qualifications to 40 innings pitched, the only starting pitcher to strike out more than Burns per nine innings was Cole Ragans. There are actually quite a few similarities between Ragans and Burns. On the surface, both had poor seasons with mid-4.00 ERAs. A deeper dive shows FIPs and xFIPs nearly two runs lower.

Ragans broke out in 2024 with a top-five finish in American League Cy Young voting. Burns could post a similar season this year. Be aware that there is also the possibility that he begins the season in the minor leagues, although it would likely be short-term.

Emmet Sheehan (SP – LAD)

How many innings Emmet Sheehan pitches is in question, but not his breakout potential.

Sheehan missed all of 2024 and the first few months of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Including his time spent rehabbing in the minor leagues and postseason play, he was able to pitch right around 100 innings in 2025. That was still over 30 innings more than he had thrown in any other professional season.

Where his innings settle in 2026 is the question. The Dodgers are expected to employ a six-man rotation throughout the season. Blake Snell is likely to begin the season on the IL, but they can easily replace him for a while with someone such as River Ryan. That likely caps Sheehan’s regular-season innings around 115.

Similarly to Burns, the way Sheehan breaks out is just being available for more innings. He had a 23% strikeout minus walk rate last season. Only seven starting pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched had a better mark. Those names are all aces: Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Logan Gilbert, Chris Sale, Hunter Greene, Paul Skenes and Garrett Crochet.

Jac Caglianone (1B, OF – KC)

Jac Caglianone struggled in his Major League debut in 2025, but his power has him firmly on the breakout radar going into the 2026 season.

Caglianone was with the Royals for 62 games last season. He batted an abysmal .157 with only a .237 on-base percentage (OBP). That came with 19 runs, seven home runs, 18 RBI and a single stolen base. It was a disappointing debut for a player who was valued similarly to the unanimous Rookie of the Year Award winner, Nick Kurtz.

Caglianone’s underlying data is a lot more optimistic than his surface stats. His expected batting average was a much more palatable .237. Typically, players who struggle with batting average have strikeout concerns, but that wasn’t really the case with Caglanone. He only struck out 22% of the time last season with the Royals.

Always be careful with spring training statistics, but let’s look at what Caglianone has done so far. He’s currently 6-for-15 with half of those hits being for extra bases. What’s even more encouraging is that he has walked five times and struck out only thrice. A breakout season for Caglianone seems likely in 2026.