Corey Pieper | Thu, Mar 19th 2026, 7:23am EDT

5 Breakout Players to Target (2026 Fantasy Baseball)

It can be hard to differentiate between a breakout and a sleeper. Sleepers are all about the value you spend to acquire them. By that definition, it’s almost impossible to be a sleeper inside the top 150 picks in fantasy baseball average draft position (ADP). That’s not the case with a breakout.

A breakout can happen to a more highly regarded player if they make a substantial increase in one of their skills. A good example of that would be Josh Naylor from last season. The ADP had him selected at pick 69 on average last season. That was already an early pick, but his new contribution of stolen bases still allowed him to be classified as a breakout.

With that in mind, let’s look at five players who could be breakout players in 2026.

Fantasy Baseball Breakout Players

Chase Burns (SP – CIN)

Chase Burns is the sophomore pitcher with the most potential to break out this season.

Burns wasn’t called to the Major Leagues until the end of June. Then, in early August, an elbow injury put him on the injured list (IL) for another month. When he returned in September, it was as a reliever. Because of that, he only pitched 43 innings in the Majors. Otherwise, he may have already been considered a breakout.

If you drop the qualifications to 40 innings pitched, the only starting pitcher to strike out more than Burns per nine innings was Cole Ragans. There are actually quite a few similarities between Ragans and Burns. On the surface, both had poor seasons with mid-4.00 ERAs. A deeper dive shows FIPs and xFIPs nearly two runs lower.

Ragans broke out in 2024 with a top-five finish in American League Cy Young voting. Burns could post a similar season this year. Be aware that there is also the possibility that he begins the season in the minor leagues, although it would likely be short-term.

Emmet Sheehan (SP – LAD)

How many innings Emmet Sheehan pitches is in question, but not his breakout potential.

Sheehan missed all of 2024 and the first few months of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Including his time spent rehabbing in the minor leagues and postseason play, he was able to pitch right around 100 innings in 2025. That was still over 30 innings more than he had thrown in any other professional season.

Where his innings settle in 2026 is the question. The Dodgers are expected to employ a six-man rotation throughout the season. Blake Snell is likely to begin the season on the IL, but they can easily replace him for a while with someone such as River Ryan. That likely caps Sheehan’s regular-season innings around 115.

Similarly to Burns, the way Sheehan breaks out is just being available for more innings. He had a 23% strikeout minus walk rate last season. Only seven starting pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched had a better mark. Those names are all aces: Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Logan Gilbert, Chris Sale, Hunter Greene, Paul Skenes and Garrett Crochet.

Ivan Herrera (DH – STL)

Ivan Herrera, being utility-only to begin the season, is suppressing his fantasy draft cost.

Herrera played in 107 games in 2025. The majority of those games (89) came as the designated hitter, which is why he’ll begin with only that eligibility. He also played 14 games at catcher and four in left field.

For fantasy purposes, of course, we want the catcher eligibility, but he never played there after the middle of June. With Willson Contreras traded to Boston, he should play enough in the season to eventually gain that eligibility.

Even if Herrera is just utility-only, his batting profile is strong enough to label him as a breakout player. His surface stats were 54 runs, 19 home runs, 66 RBI, eight stolen bases and a .284 batting average. That’s all fully supported by an average exit velocity of 91.2 miles per hour (MPH) and a hard-hit rate over 47%.

If Herrera started the season with catcher eligibility, he would likely go 100 picks earlier in fantasy drafts. You can take him at his cost now and reap the benefits at your utility position.

Sal Stewart (1B – CIN)

If Sal Stewart can find playing time, his power makes him a breakout candidate.

The Reds have an abundance of infield options. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Ke’Bryan Hayes are seemingly locked into their positions. Designated hitter isn’t an option with the recent signing of Eugenio Suarez. That leaves first base reps for Stewart, Spencer Steer, Nathaniel Lowe and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. While Stewart has to be the favorite, there are plenty of options if he starts slowly.

No one should doubt the prodigious power of Stewart. It was an extremely small sample at the end of last season, but he posted a 17.5% barrel rate and 52.5% hard-hit rate in the Majors. That was after posting a 21% barrel rate and 53% hard-hit rate at Triple-A last season.

Playing in the second-most-favorable park for home runs by park factor should only help Stewart. He could break out with a 35-home run season.

Jac Caglianone (1B, OF – KC)

Jac Caglianone struggled in his Major League debut in 2025, but his power has him firmly on the breakout radar going into the 2026 season.

Caglianone was with the Royals for 62 games last season. He batted an abysmal .157 with only a .237 on-base percentage (OBP). That came with 19 runs, seven home runs, 18 RBI and a single stolen base. It was a disappointing debut for a player who was valued similarly to the unanimous Rookie of the Year Award winner, Nick Kurtz.

Caglianone’s underlying data is a lot more optimistic than his surface stats. His expected batting average was a much more palatable .237. Typically, players who struggle with batting average have strikeout concerns, but that wasn’t really the case with Caglanone. He only struck out 22% of the time last season with the Royals.

Always be careful with spring training statistics, but let’s look at what Caglianone has done so far. He’s currently 6-for-15 with half of those hits being for extra bases. What’s even more encouraging is that he has walked five times and struck out only thrice. A breakout season for Caglianone seems likely in 2026.

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