I’m a big fan of this next group of players, but in Yahoo fantasy baseball leagues, they are slightly overvalued. While they’re still worth targeting at their consensus ADP, Yahoo’s pricing feels a bit overzealous. You may not be able to wait as long on Yahoo’s platform to draft some of these guys, but if they fall into a more reasonable range, they’re still absolutely worth selecting on draft day.
Fantasy sports are all about getting the most bang for your buck, and consistently overpaying for players will hurt you in the long run. That said, if you truly believe in a player, trust your gut. There’s nothing worse than identifying a breakout, passing because of outside projections, and then watching it play out exactly as you expected. Today, the focus is on players who, while still very good, are being drafted well ahead of their consensus ADP in Yahoo leagues.
So without further ado, here are five players being drafted too early in Yahoo leagues this fantasy season.
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5 Overvalued Fantasy Baseball Draft Picks to Avoid on Yahoo
Zach Neto (SS – LAA): Consensus ADP 34 Yahoo ADP 29
I’m a huge fan of Zack Neto. I had him in most of my leagues last year, and he was a major boost to my roster. That said, the surrounding cast in Los Angeles is still a concern. His counting stats are unlikely to be great, and his batting average will probably land around .250, possibly .260. He’s also unlikely to reach 30 home runs.
Much of Neto’s appeal comes from his potential to be a 30/30 player. He hit 28 home runs and stole 26 bases in just 118 games last season, which certainly stands out. However, in today’s game, steals can be found later in drafts. So the question becomes: are you willing to spend a third-round pick for a player who might produce 25-27 home runs, 75 RBIs, 80 runs, and a .250 average?
The upside is there, but I don’t believe the lineup around him will support the kind of production needed to justify such a high price tag. He’s not drastically overpriced compared to his Yahoo ADP, but I wouldn’t take him over players like Yordan Alvarez, Manny Machado, Matt Olson, or even Pete Crow-Armstrong.
If you’ve already secured power early with a Kyle Schwarber type and paired him with a top-tier ace, I can understand the appeal of Neto in that scenario. Ideally, though, you’re landing one of those previously mentioned hitters, or even pivoting to someone like Bryan Woo if you go offense-heavy early.
Neto also carries some injury risk after dealing with multiple nagging issues last season. I still really like the Angels’ shortstop, but I don’t trust the lineup around him enough to draft him at 29th overall.
Luis Castillo (SP – SEA): Consensus ADP 142 Yahoo ADP 113
I’m also a big fan of Luis Castillo. In fact, I wrote about him in my article, “Targets for Quality Starts.” In that context, I had him as a value in rounds 13 or 14. However, in Yahoo leagues, he’s going closer to round 11, which is far too rich for my blood. Especially in standard 5×5 formats, where quality starts aren’t counted.
Castillo is still a very good pitcher and remains extremely durable. He’s capable of producing a mid-3.00 ERA with a WHIP under 1.20 while racking up around 160-170 strikeouts. Pitching for a competitive team also grants him the ability to reach 12-13 wins. That said, at 113th overall, there are higher-upside options available.
Names like Nick Lodolo, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael King, Zack Wheeler, and Brandon Woodruff all offer more ceiling, particularly in leagues that reward strikeouts. Some come with added injury risk, but their potential payoff is significantly higher.
Castillo is the safer option, but when was the last time you won a fantasy league drafting all the safe options? He’s a solid pick around 140-150th overall, but taking him in the early 12th round feels like an overpay.
Wilson Contreras (1B – BOS): Consensus ADP 180 Yahoo ADP 128
Wilson Contreras is another player I’m targeting in many leagues. At his consensus ADP, he’s actually a strong value. However, moving him up more than 50 picks in Yahoo leagues is simply too aggressive.
Contreras should benefit from a more favorable offensive environment. Boston, of course, features the Green Monster, but also his surrounding cast is full of high on-base types with speed. Contreras is solely a first baseman/DH these days, so he could easily push towards 150 games played.
With those factors considered, the former backstop should be presented with plenty of RBI opportunities. He also boasts a career OBP north of .350, which should help contribute to a solid runs scored total. A slight uptick in home runs is also possible in the more hitter-friendly park, and his batting average will likely settle around .255-.265.
Those are strong numbers, but the profile is more of that of a mid-round player than something worthy of a top-130 pick. Even with the improved situation, it’s hard to justify Yahoo’s inflated cost. I do think Contreras can outperform his consensus ADP, but reaching his Yahoo ADP of 128th overall feels unwise.
Munetaka Murakami (1B/3B – CHW): Consensus ADP 184 Yahoo ADP 147
Munetaka Murakami is a true wild card. No one knows exactly how he’ll transition to Major League Baseball, but his power is undeniable. No one in Japan’s Nippon League matched his power. Murakami won the Triple Crown in 2022, blasting over 50 home runs, and was on pace for another dominant season this year before injuries cut it short.
The main issue is that he plays for the Chicago White Sox. How many hittable pitches is he actually going to see?
Murakami’s timing looked slightly off in the WBC but he still was able mash a home run. My guess is he’ll hit around 25 to 30 home runs, but his counting stats will be low, and his average won’t reach .250. There’s always the chance he exceeds expectations, but in his first taste of big league action and playing for such a weak offense, I’d be wary of using a 15th round selection on him.
Will Vest (RP – DET): Consensus ADP 291 Yahoo ADP 245
If your league doesn’t reward holds, Will Vest is difficult to justify rostering. He still retains value in deeper leagues due to his strong ratios and strikeout potential, but his path to saves is extremely limited.
That is largely because the team brought in cutter specialist, Kenley Jansen – and Mr. Jansen doesn’t share closing duties. Not since his early days with the Los Angeles Dodgers, when pitchers like Jonathan Broxton and Javy Guerra were closing, has Jansen regularly pitched outside the ninth inning.
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Austin Lowell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Austin, check out his archive.
