8 MLB Spring Training Risers & Fallers (2026 Fantasy Baseball)

We are a little more than halfway through spring training. Every Major League Baseball (MLB) team has played at least 12 games, and none of them have counted for anything, but this is all we have to determine who is trending up and down for fantasy baseball. At this point in spring training, we are living and dying by every home run and 99 miles per hour (MPH) pitch.

Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers

Spring training stats are mostly meaningless, but playing time, usage and lineup spots can be useful information. Players who are buzzy and end up with tremendous or terrible springs are also hard to ignore. Every player seems to be in the best shape of their life or on track to come back from an injury. But how do we separate fact from fiction?

This piece will look at eight players who are trending up or down heading into 2026 based on where they finished their fantasy baseball season in 2025. The average draft position (ADP) data referenced below is courtesy of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC).

Fantasy Baseball Risers

Mookie Betts (SS – LAD) | NFBC ADP: 53.9

There’s a lot of positive spin on why Mookie Betts could revert to a top-30 player. He lost nearly 20 pounds early in 2025 due to a severe stomach illness and later fractured a toe. He also cited the mental strain of learning a new position (shortstop) while dealing with the pressure of being a defending champion.

Those health issues and positional issues appear to all be behind him. The addition of Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers’ lineup is expected to provide better protection and more RBI opportunities, as Betts is slated to hit third behind Shohei Ohtani and Tucker. That’s the good news.

There aren’t many other places Betts can go but up after a career-worst .258/.326/.406 slash line with a .148 ISO in 2025. Projections across the board are calling for him to hit 24 home runs, drive in 95 runs and hit .275.

All of Betts’ expected numbers in 2025 were wildly higher than his actual production, so there was also some bad luck mixed into the health problems. If some of those things course-correct this year, Betts will be elite again, and drafters are starting to notice.

Austin Riley (3B – ATL) | NFBC ADP: 69.6

The big question surrounding Austin Riley in 2026 is about health. Can he stay on the field? Production has never been the issue with Riley when healthy, but staying on the field the last two seasons has been his weakness. Riley played in at least 159 games for three straight seasons before 2024.

Riley had at least 30 home runs, 90 runs and 90 RBI in those three seasons, but the injury bug hit in 2024. He has played 110 and 102 games over the last two seasons. He has not reached 20 home runs or 60 RBI in either of those seasons. Can he bounce back and produce like before? The injury history says he might have been fluky.

In 2024, he broke a hand on a hit-by-pitch, but that has now fully healed. In 2025, he had an abdominal injury, but he had surgery in August and seems to be fully healed. Fantasy baseball managers are taking advantage of the dip from his high ADP over the last three seasons and taking him outside of the fifth round in 12-team leagues.

If Riley can get back to form, he is right in his prime hitting years. Fantasy managers can expect another 30-90-90 season in the top half of the Atlanta Braves’ batting order.

Matt McLain (2B – CIN) | NFBC ADP: 188.2

All Matt McLain has done during spring training is hit .545 with four home runs, 11 RBI and a 1.751 OPS. It’s been a crazy good start for a player who was largely written off after a down 2025 after he missed 2024 with injuries.

Last season, McLain was a consensus top-100 pick after hitting 16 home runs and stealing 14 bases in two-thirds of a season in 2023. He also hit. 290 that season and slugged .507, and managers were hoping for a repeat. In 2025, those numbers plummeted to .220 and 343, respectively, which tanked his draft capital.

McLain has shown this spring that the power is back, and he is also striking out in fewer than 10% of his plate appearances. If he keeps this up, he is going to end up being drafted inside the top 150 before the end of spring training. Just in the last week, his ADP has dropped to pick 179. Smart managers should take advantage.

Konnor Griffin (SS – PIT) | NFBC ADP: 204.7

Top prospect Konnor Griffin has already blasted three massive home runs this spring and has a .923 OPS. He looks like the elite offensive force evaluators have seen for years.

The real question is whether Griffin will crack the Pirates’ Opening Day roster and spend the season as the team’s starting shortstop. At pick 185 and with his pedigree, it may not matter if Griffin starts in the first game or the 25th game; he is good enough to return value in just 130 games.

The risk, of course, is that Griffin is just 19 years old and played in just 21 games at the Double-A level. There is always a risk of young players falling on their faces, but Griffin is supposed to be one of the special ones. Drafters are starting to take notice, as his ADP has been creeping up.

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

Rafael Devers (1B – SF) | NFBC ADP: 54.4

Rafael Devers moved from Fenway Park (normally strong for left-handed power) to Oracle Park, which heavily depresses offense. His strikeout rate rose to 29.4% following the trade, well above his career average. In addition, Devers is losing third base eligibility in many fantasy leagues for 2026, significantly lowering his relative value. If Devers isn’t an ultra-elite power-hitting first baseman, is he worth a top-55 pick?

Devers’ spot has fallen five total picks in seven days, meaning he has lost 10% of his draft capital over the last week. I prefer Josh Naylor and Vinnie Pasquantino, who both go later, and I’m looking more at the elite pitchers in this range instead of Devers.

Carlos Estevez (RP – KC) | NFBC ADP: 98.3

How can someone who led all of Major League Baseball with 42 saves in 2025 find themselves outside the top 100 in early ADP? Saves are such a precious commodity that someone capable of 40+ should be going in the earlier rounds, right?

Carlos Estevez even had a 2.45 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 2025. What’s not to love? Well, the 20% strikeout rate, for starters. That is very uncharacteristic for a closer, who typically might be up around 30%. His expected ERA in 2025 was all the way up to 3.69, a long way from his actual number, and a warning sign of what’s to come.

Estevez gave up a lot of hard contact, didn’t generate a lot of ground balls and generally got outs in the air during his career year. That is not a recipe for success at Kauffman Stadium, as the team has decided to move in the fences for 2026, which should greatly benefit opposing batters.

We can probably pencil Estevez in for 20-25 saves, but it won’t come with the same sparkling ratios he had in 2025. Most projection systems give Estevez an ERA in the 3.50-4.00 range for 2026, and the projections are all a long way from 40 saves.

Josh Hader (RP – HOU) | NFBC ADP: 81.7

Josh Hader’s stock is tumbling and getting closer and closer to pick 100 due to left biceps inflammation that has kept him off the mound this spring. The injury is particularly worrisome because it follows a shoulder strain that ended his 2025 season prematurely last August.

Hader and the team insist these two things are unrelated, but it’s hard not to tie them together when a pitcher who throws as hard as Hader does succumbs to multiple arm injuries. He hasn’t done more than throw on flat ground this spring.

Hader is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, and why would Houston rush their five-year investment when they have fireballer Bryan Abreu waiting in the wings for the ninth inning until Hader can return?

At this point, it’s safe to say Hader will pitch in 2026, probably even early in 2026. But the Astros have been mysterious with injuries the last couple of years, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this turned into a long absence. Drafters beware.

Chandler Simpson (OF – TB) | NFBC ADP: 164.2

Is one mega-elite offensive skill worth the downside that comes with other parts of a player’s profile? That’s the question drafter must answer before they select Chandler Simpson this spring.

Simpson could offer 40+ steals, after he stole 44 bases last year and 70+ steals in three minor league seasons. But he has two total home runs in four years of his professional career. Simpson has also never had more than 31 RBI in any season.

Almost all projection systems slot Simpson in for zero home runs, 30 RBI and between 40 and 50 steals. If you load up on power in your roster early and can withstand a literal zero, Simpson can be a late-round target, but these zero-category producers are often left behind.

Simpson’s draft stock has fallen more than 60 spots due to those concerns, plus a minor hamstring injury that has sprung up.