Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate as we look toward the playoffs on the horizon. The weather is getting warmer, and the jockeying for position is in full force right now as teams try to lock in their places for the playoffs or for the potential number one overall pick odds. It’s a great time. If you’re going to do NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a smaller three-game slate tonight, so pretty much anyone is on the table here. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $9,100
- FanDuel: $9,700
I’ve been riding the Paolo train for a bit, and recently it’s been paying off. While the Magic have been dropping in the standings, Banchero is coming off two straight 50-plus point efforts. Tonight, he sets up well to do so again. I imagine Orlando will get a bulk of the ownership tonight as they take on Sacramento at home. The Kings’ road defense this year has been abysmal at the bottom of the barrel, and since the All-Star Break, it’s actually only gotten worse. Orlando already has three players questionable or out tonight, including two starters. More of the load has been put on Paolo, as showcased by his now 33 percent usage rate in the Magic’s last four games, and he’s still playing significant minutes where you can justify him in half your lineups tonight, which is about the ownership he’s projecting for.
- DraftKings: $8,400
- FanDuel: $8,400
Another player who has seen a recent bump in usage is Jalen Duren. The 6-10 center has gone over 50 fantasy points twice in his last five games, and at his current price tag, that’s a pretty good ROI. The Pelicans have been friendly to centers, allowing the seventh most fantasy points to the position on the season. Duren gets a significant bump when playing at home, so his splits are favorable here as well. Considering the other main center option, Karl-Anthony Towns, is $1,000 more expensive, and they project quite similarly, it’s easier to go to Duren here with the cost savings without risking the ceiling of your lineups.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $6,200
- FanDuel: $7,500
Expected at a whopping 60 percent ownership right now, Jenkins appears to be the free square in your cash lineups tonight. There always appears to be one on these smaller slates, and once injury news gets updated, there may be another. But considering no Marcus Sasser and no Cade Cunningham, Jenkins makes sense. His price has continued to rise, but he’s been consistent in the small sample of his new role. He’s averaging 44 fantasy points a game in his last three matches with a 21 percent usage rate and 39 minutes on the court a night. You can see how FanDuel has adjusted, but DraftKings is still soft with his tag so there’s a chance Jenkins gets 7.0X ROI on his salary here. Ausar Thompson and Tobias Harris project high in ownership as well, and additionally line up as solid cash options.
- DraftKings: $7,400
- FanDuel: $7,700
I mentioned Bane last time in this category, and I’m running it right back. The man is a 30-plus point machine. His guard-forward status helps with flexibility, and there is a surprising amount of solid plays in the $5k-$7k range that make it easy to fit Bane into your lineup. I mentioned that Orlando will see a bulk of the ownership tonight, and that appears to be lining up with Bane projected around 30 percent right now. He’s consistent as can be and almost guaranteed 30 fantasy points; that’s nothing. Against Sacramento, I project him closer to 35 because the Magic really need to secure this win if they want to stay in contention. Jalen Suggs, if healthy, and Wendell Carter Jr. also line up as solid cash plays here.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $7,300
- FanDuel: $7,600
It’s tough to find pure GPP dart throws on three-game slates, but you can definitely find zags to everyone else zigging. I think those two teams to focus on for lower ownership will be New Orleans and New York. Williamson is coming in around 15 percent owned tonight, which isn’t nothing, but I feel like he’s deserving of more. With the current injuries or question mark around the Pels’ starting lineup, Zion gets a bump in minutes and usage and has been playing more of late already, seeing the court 33 minutes a night over his last three games. Getting to 50 would be his ceiling here, but he’s done it before, and Indiana showed how Orlando isn’t exactly indestructible right now.
- DraftKings: $5,800
- FanDuel: $5,900
It doesn’t appear as if everyone is flocking to the Knicks-Hornets game with their 222 point total and slower pace but don’t be afraid to overexpose yourself to that game. Anything can happen on any given day, and especially on a smaller slate, you have to take stands. Bridges has only gone over his seasonal average DFS production in one of his last 12 games. That’s not a great starting point, but it also means his ownership won’t be high. He’s still playing over 33 minutes a night, and his price keeps dipping to the point where I’m buying back stock on him. Bridges is due for major positive regression, and I don’t mind trying to be early on it. Keep in mind Miles Bridges is also in this game, but I don’t mind him as a GPP stab either.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,400
- FanDuel: $5,000
For your salary saving option, my first suggestion is Herb Jones. The Pelicans’ offense has been pretty solid of late, and Jones has been part of it. He’s scored in the double-figures four of his last five games, and he’s gone over 22 fantasy points in seven straight. Since Bryce McGowens went down, we’ve seen a lot more usage and minutes out of Jones, which I expect to continue reflecting tonight. The matchup isn’t the best, but on a three game slate, you can’t exactly be picky.
- DraftKings: $3,500
- FanDuel: $4,100
I will preface that while a lot of the Orlando players project well here, you shouldn’t blindly fill your lineups with all Magic. Remember to mix and match who ends up in your lineups to diversify your entries. Cain is simply another easy salary-saver punt option for whatever position you need filled, considering his guard-forward eligibility. Last time out, he scored 30 fantasy points, and while it looks like Jalen Suggs is back, Anthony Black is still out, lining up Cain for significant minutes where he should be safe to get 20 or more.
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