The fantasy baseball season is approaching the point where managers have to make difficult decisions. At some point, disappointing starts stop being small-sample noise and start looking like legitimate trends.
That dilemma is front and center with several early-round hitters who have failed to deliver through the first few months of the season. Some still have underlying metrics that suggest a rebound is coming. Others are showing signs that fantasy managers may need to adjust long-term expectations.
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10 Disappointing Fantasy Baseball Hitters: Buy Low Opportunities or Warning Signs?
Here is a closer look at 10 notable underperformers and what their rest-of-season outlook might look like based on the discussion from FantasyPros’ Joe Rico and Baseball HQ’s Ryan Bloomfield.
Kyle Tucker (OF – LAD)
Kyle Tucker‘s surface numbers have been underwhelming compared to his first-round draft cost. The power output has lagged behind expectations, and several underlying metrics have slipped from his established baseline.
The encouraging part is that Tucker’s long-term track record remains difficult to ignore. At age 29, there is little reason to believe his bat skills have suddenly disappeared. Both Rico and Bloomfield viewed him as a player deserving of patience.
The biggest concern isn’t the power. It’s the speed.
The Dodgers simply are not running much this season, and Tucker appears to be part of that organizational philosophy. If fantasy managers were counting on another 25-30 stolen base campaign, those expectations may need to be adjusted.
The home runs and counting stats should improve. The steals may not.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (OF – SD)
Tatis has been one of the strangest fantasy stories of the season.
The batting average remains solid and the stolen bases are still arriving, but the power outage has been shocking. The primary culprit appears to be a dramatic drop in launch angle and fly-ball rate.
Despite that, the underlying power indicators remain encouraging.
Tatis has continued to barrel baseballs at a healthy rate, and Bloomfield pointed out the significant gap between his barrel total and actual home run output. In other words, the raw power is still showing up. The results simply have not followed.
That leaves room for optimism.
A return to his 40-home run peak may be unrealistic, but both analysts still expect meaningful power production over the remainder of the season.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B – TOR)
Guerrero’s season has become increasingly frustrating because the batting average remains strong while the power has vanished.
Unlike Tatis, the issue isn’t launch angle. Guerrero has always hit plenty of ground balls. The bigger concern is that the quality of contact has declined.
His hard-hit metrics, exit velocities, and extra-base hit totals are all down.
Even so, Bloomfield remains bullish because Guerrero is still in his prime years and has a lengthy history of elite contact quality. The expectation is that the hard-hit production eventually returns.
Of the first-round disappointments discussed, Guerrero was actually the player Bloomfield felt most confident about moving forward.
Trea Turner (SS – PHI)
Turner’s fantasy profile remains surprisingly intact.
The power is there. The stolen bases are there. The underlying batted-ball profile looks largely unchanged.
The biggest issue has been batting average.
Bloomfield pointed to a dramatically lower BABIP compared to recent seasons as the primary explanation. While the strikeout rate has ticked up slightly, nothing in the profile suggests Turner should be hitting anywhere near his current average.
The damage to fantasy teams has already occurred, but there is still a strong case that Turner remains one of the better buy-low candidates among elite middle infielders.
Manny Machado (3B – SD)
Machado may be the most concerning name among the veteran stars discussed.
Unlike Turner, there are legitimate age-related concerns entering the conversation. Machado is approaching his mid-30s, the stolen bases have disappeared, and several underlying quality-of-contact metrics are moving in the wrong direction.
There is one major caveat.
His BABIP is extraordinarily low and almost certainly unsustainable.
That should help improve the batting average moving forward, but both analysts acknowledged that Machado appears further along the decline curve than many of the other stars featured in this discussion.
Brent Rooker (OF – ATH)
Rooker’s power remains mostly intact.
His batting average does not.
The biggest issue is a sudden collapse in plate discipline. After making meaningful gains with his strikeout rate last season, Rooker has given much of that progress back.
The whiff rate and strikeout rate both point toward a hitter who is struggling to consistently make contact.
That doesn’t mean the power disappears. Sacramento’s summer weather could help boost home run totals.
But expecting another batting average breakout may be asking too much.
Austin Riley (3B – ATL)
Few players are harder to explain than Riley.
The Braves offense is thriving. Most of the supporting cast is producing. Riley is not.
The underlying power metrics remain respectable, which makes the continued decline difficult to diagnose. One possible explanation highlighted during the discussion is an unusually high infield fly-ball rate.
Too many of Riley’s fly balls are becoming easy outs.
The question fantasy managers must answer is whether this is simply bad luck or evidence of a hitter whose peak years have already passed.
At age 29, there is still room for optimism, but the concerns are becoming harder to ignore.
Mookie Betts (SS/OF – LAD)
Betts continues to benefit from one of baseball’s best lineups, but the fantasy production has not followed.
The power decline that began last season has carried over. The stolen bases have vanished. His role in the batting order has also changed, reducing some of the plate appearance volume that historically boosted his fantasy value.
The good news is that Betts still rarely strikes out and owns one of the lowest BABIP marks among hitters with meaningful playing time.
A rebound is likely.
The bigger question is what version of Betts emerges.
A return to MVP-level production seems unlikely. A productive fantasy contributor remains very possible.
Jackson Merrill (OF – SD)
Merrill’s rookie season may have created unrealistic expectations.
The talent remains intriguing, particularly with the stolen bases returning, but several plate-skill trends are moving in the wrong direction. His strikeout rate has increased every year he has been in the majors, and the power output has backed up.
The challenge is determining which version of Merrill is real.
Was the breakout rookie campaign the true baseline?
Or have the last two seasons provided a more accurate picture?
That uncertainty makes Merrill one of the toughest evaluations in fantasy baseball.
Vinnie Pasquantino (1B – KC)
Pasquantino entered the season after a breakout campaign that featured 32 home runs and 113 RBI.
The follow-up has been disappointing.
His quality-of-contact metrics have slipped, and an extreme fly-ball spike has not translated into additional power. Instead, many of those fly balls have simply become outs.
Bloomfield still believes deeper-league managers should remain patient.
The profile remains playable in 12-team and 15-team formats, but expectations likely need to be tempered compared to last year’s production.
Fantasy Baseball Takeaways
- Kyle Tucker remains a strong buy-low target, but expectations for stolen bases should be reduced.
- Fernando Tatis Jr.‘s underlying power metrics suggest better days are ahead despite the lack of home runs.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was viewed as the safest rebound candidate among the struggling first-round hitters.
- Trea Turner‘s batting average woes appear heavily influenced by bad luck rather than declining skills.
- Manny Machado is showing more legitimate signs of age-related decline than the other veterans discussed.
- Brent Rooker‘s power remains useful, but batting average expectations should be lowered.
- Austin Riley‘s continued decline is becoming increasingly difficult to explain.
- Mookie Betts still offers rebound potential, but fantasy managers may need to move on from MVP-level expectations.
- Jackson Merrill‘s true talent level remains difficult to identify after a sensational rookie season.
- Vinnie Pasquantino remains worth holding in most competitive formats despite a frustrating start.
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