12 Fantasy Football Draft Landmines (2026)

Every fantasy football draft requires balancing upside with risk.

Some players are worth betting on despite the uncertainty. Others are being drafted close to their best-case outcome, leaving very little room for error.

In a recent FantasyPros discussion, Joey P, Scott Bogman, and Pat Fitzmaurice broke down several players they believe fantasy managers should think twice about at current ADP. The concerns vary from injuries and workload to offensive environment, but the common theme is simple: price matters.

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Here are the biggest fantasy football landmines they identified.

Rashee Rice (WR – KC) & Kenneth Walker III (RB – KC)

Scott Bogman’s concerns with the Chiefs offense begin with uncertainty.

While he acknowledged both players possess plenty of talent, he questioned how productive Kansas City’s offense will be early in the season given Patrick Mahomes‘ recovery timeline.

For Kenneth Walker III, the concern is workload.

Bogman pointed out that Walker has never handled an extended season with massive volume without eventually breaking down physically. Even if Kansas City leans heavily on him early, he believes that workload could become a problem over the course of the season.

Rashee Rice presents a different type of risk.

Bogman emphasized Rice’s lengthy injury history, arguing that the combination of health concerns and uncertainty surrounding the offense makes it difficult to view him as a true fantasy WR1 despite his impressive efficiency metrics whenever he’s on the field.

Pat Fitzmaurice largely agreed on Rice, noting that fantasy managers appear to be drafting him near his ceiling rather than accounting for the numerous risks attached to his profile.

Malik Nabers (WR – NYG) & Nico Collins (WR – HOU)

Pat Fitzmaurice believes Malik Nabers‘ current price simply hasn’t adjusted to his injury situation.

With uncertainty surrounding his recovery timeline, Fitzmaurice argued that fantasy managers are still paying for an ideal outcome despite significant unanswered questions heading into the season.

His concerns with Nico Collins were different.

Rather than questioning Collins’ talent, Fitzmaurice focused on Houston’s changing offensive identity. He expects a stronger running game, improved defense, and additional receiving options to reduce Collins’ overall target share.

He also noted Collins’ lengthy injury history as another reason to approach cautiously.

Bogman agreed that Collins remains Houston’s top receiver but acknowledged that several small concerns combine to create more risk than fantasy managers may realize.

Jeremiyah Love (RB – ARI)

Few rookie running backs generate more excitement than Jeremiyah Love.

Bogman still urged patience.

He pointed to historical rookie workloads, noting that even highly drafted running backs often take time before receiving true feature-back usage. Arizona also has multiple backs capable of handling touches, making it difficult to project the elite workload necessary to justify Love’s current draft cost.

The talent isn’t in question.

The immediate volume is.

Bogman believes Love certainly has league-winning upside but feels fantasy managers may already be paying for that best-case scenario.

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

Breece Hall created one of the show’s more interesting debates.

Pat Fitzmaurice questioned whether Hall’s offensive environment will allow him to return value at his current ADP.

He cited New York’s expected scoring struggles, Hall’s relatively modest touchdown production throughout his career, and comments suggesting the Jets could utilize multiple running backs.

Bogman pushed back somewhat, arguing that Hall’s talent could ultimately force the coaching staff to increase his workload regardless of preseason plans.

Even so, both analysts acknowledged that Hall carries more uncertainty than many fantasy managers may be comfortable accepting.

DJ Moore (WR – BUF)

On paper, pairing DJ Moore with Josh Allen sounds exciting.

Pat Fitzmaurice remains unconvinced.

He argued that Moore’s production has steadily declined over the past two seasons and questioned whether fantasy managers are still drafting the version of Moore from several years ago instead of evaluating his recent performance.

Bogman viewed Moore as a reasonable value because of his current cost, but both analysts agreed fantasy managers should quickly know whether the change of scenery is enough to revive his fantasy value.

Alec Pierce (WR – IND)

Alec Pierce‘s contract extension has increased expectations.

Bogman isn’t sure that’s justified.

He pointed to Pierce’s ankle recovery, uncertainty surrounding Indianapolis’ passing game, and the possibility of additional competition for targets.

Although Pierce has steadily improved, Bogman believes fantasy managers may already be pricing him as a clear No. 1 option before that role is fully established.

RJ Harvey (RB – DEN)

RJ Harvey‘s touchdown total helped fuel his fantasy value last season.

Pat Fitzmaurice warned that those touchdowns may be masking larger concerns.

He questioned Harvey’s rushing efficiency after J.K. Dobbins‘ injury while also highlighting Denver’s crowded backfield, where multiple runners could compete for meaningful work.

Bogman agreed that if fantasy managers want exposure to Denver’s backfield, taking the least expensive option may be the better strategy.

Michael Wilson (WR – ARI)

Michael Wilson finished last season on a high note, but Bogman doesn’t expect a simple repeat.

Arizona’s offensive changes, additional competition for touches, and an expected shift toward a more balanced offense all contribute to concerns that Wilson’s target volume could decline.

While Wilson remains an intriguing player, Bogman believes fantasy managers are beginning to price him closer to his ceiling than his likely outcome.

Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL)

Pat Fitzmaurice believes Jake Ferguson‘s ranking among fantasy tight ends is too optimistic.

With CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens commanding the majority of Dallas’ passing volume, Fitzmaurice questioned whether enough opportunities remain for Ferguson to consistently separate himself from the deep middle tier of fantasy tight ends.

Rather than investing in Ferguson at his current price, he’d rather wait and target other tight ends with clearer paths to volume.

Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA)

Bogman closed with one of his strongest fades.

Coming off a torn ACL while competing in an increasingly crowded Seattle backfield, Charbonnet faces multiple hurdles before returning meaningful fantasy value.

Bogman questioned both the recovery timeline and the likelihood that Seattle immediately hands him significant work after investing in younger backs.

Unless roster settings provide abundant bench and injured reserve flexibility, he prefers avoiding the situation altogether.

Fantasy Football Takeaways

Rashee Rice (WR – KC) carries significant injury and offensive uncertainty despite elite efficiency when healthy.
Kenneth Walker III (RB – KC) may see strong early volume, but long-term durability remains a concern.
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG) is still being drafted aggressively despite ongoing injury uncertainty.
Nico Collins (WR – HOU) could lose volume as Houston leans more heavily on its running game and defense.
Jeremiyah Love (RB – ARI) has enormous upside, but rookie workload expectations may already be baked into his ADP.
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) remains talented, though questions about the Jets offense and workload distribution create additional risk.
DJ Moore (WR – BUF) offers value if the change of scenery works, but recent production leaves legitimate questions.
RJ Harvey (RB – DEN) faces stiff competition in a crowded backfield despite last year’s touchdown production.
Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL) may struggle to earn enough targets behind Dallas’ top receivers.
Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA) carries significant injury and workload concerns entering the season.