When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and which to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few players who carry more risk than others at the QB position in the eyes of our expert community.
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2026 Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Quarterbacks Experts Avoid
Every fantasy football draft season, certain quarterbacks get drafted ahead of where the industry actually has them ranked. Sometimes this is based on name recognition, sometimes on a big final month, sometimes just on draft-day hype. Using ECR (expert consensus rank) versus current ADP, here are the quarterbacks whose current draft price is running hotter than their consensus ranking. A negative number means the field is drafting them earlier than experts have them ranked.
Jayden Daniels (WAS) — ECR: QB5 | ECR vs. ADP: -2
After a sublime 2024 rookie season in which he threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns, ran for 891 yards and six touchdowns, and was named Offensive Rookie of the Year, Daniels played only seven games in 2025 due to elbow, knee and ankle injuries. When he was healthy, Daniels was a far less efficient passer than he had been in 2024, averaging only 6.7 yards per pass attempt and completing 60.6% of his throws in 2025 (down from 7.4 YPA and a 69.0% completion rate as a rookie). Daniels still ran aggressively, averaging 8.3 rushing attempts per game after averaging 8.7 as a rookie. But his effectiveness as a runner waned, going from 6.0 to 4.8 yards per carry. Daniels’ running ability and his potential as a passer still make him a top-five fantasy quarterback, but he’s obviously a less appealing investment than he was a year ago, and the Commanders’ lack of proven pass catchers behind WR Terry McLaurin is cause for concern.
Dak Prescott (DAL) — ECR: QB10 | ECR vs. ADP: -2
One of the best pure passers in the game, Dak Prescott seems primed for another big season. He has a solid offensive line in front of him and perhaps the best WR tandem in the league in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. If the Dallas defense is subpar again, Prescott could be thrust into a lot of shootouts in which he’s forced to match opponents score for score. Over the last three years, Prescott has averaged 263 passing yards, 1.8 TD passes and 19.1 fantasy points per game. He’s led the league in completions in two of the last three years, and he might have gone 3-for-3 had he not missed the last nine games of the season with a hamstring injury. Although he managed to finish QB5 in fantasy scoring last season, Prescott offers little value as a runner, with only seven TD runs over the last five years.
Patrick Mahomes II (KC) — ECR: QB14 | ECR vs. ADP: -3
Patrick Mahomes’ fantasy appeal has diminished in recent years, and now the nine-year veteran is trying to recover from a major knee injury. Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee late in the Chiefs’ Week 15 loss to the Chargers in mid-December. Reports say he has been rehabbing aggressively in hopes of starting the Chiefs’ Monday-night season opener against the Broncos on Sept. 14, which comes three days before his 31st birthday. Even if Mahomes is able to return for Week 1, his mobility could be compromised. Mahomes’ rushing production helped him get off to a fast fantasy start in 2025. Through eight weeks, he was QB1 in fantasy scoring at 25 points per game, fueled in part by 280 rushing yards and four TD runs. Mahomes finished the year tied for QB2 in fantasy points per game behind Josh Allen, after finishing QB11 in FPPG (six games minimum) in both 2023 and 2024. Kansas City didn’t make any significant additions to Mahomes’ pass-catching arsenal in the offseason, but the Chiefs added RB Kenneth Walker III, who could make Mahomes’ life easier by providing the Chiefs with a credible running threat.
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Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Check out the consensus 2026 fantasy football draft rankings from our experts.
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