Jim Moorman | Mon, Jul 6th 2026, 7:04am EDT

Fantasy Football Predictions: Dark Horse League Leaders Picks (2026)

Half the fun of playing fantasy football is planting your flag on players you truly believe in and making bold calls. That’s exactly what we’re doing today, digging into some dark horse picks to lead statistical categories or break out in a big way this season. Here’s who I’m putting my money on in redraft leagues for 2026.

Dark Horse Fantasy Football League Leader Predictions & Picks

Passing Touchdowns Leader: Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX)

Trevor Lawrence just finished as the fantasy QB5 overall with a career-best 29 passing touchdowns in 2025, and everything is trending up in this Liam Coen-led offense. Offenses almost always get more efficient once the quarterback and staff have a full offseason together. With Coen headed into his second season as head coach, I’m expecting big things from the Jaguars.

Parker Washington broke out late last season and looks like the next “slot demon” in the NFL. Brian Thomas Jr. was playing through wrist, shoulder, and ankle injuries for much of the 2025 season, which severely impacted his production. We could certainly see the rookie version of Thomas again. With Travis Hunter‘s knee rehab going well, he could be another explosive option in this offense when he gets the opportunity.

The volume should be there for Lawrence to lead the league in passing touchdowns. He ranked in the top five in red-zone throws, deep targets and total air yards in 2025. Assuming the skill players stay off the injured reserve (IR), a 35+ passing touchdown season is closer to Lawrence’s floor than his ceiling.

Rushing Yards Leader: Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – NO)

Travis Etienne Jr. bounced back in a big way last season, amassing 1,100 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns for the Jaguars. He’s headed into arguably an even better situation in New Orleans, at least in terms of backfield competition.

Bhayshul Tuten is no longer waiting in the wings, and the only other notable back on the roster is Alvin Kamara, entering his age-31 season. Etienne posted an RB10 overall finish in 2025 with a 65.1% snap share. If that climbs up closer to the 75% range in New Orleans (which feels realistic given the depth chart), I don’t see why he can’t hit 1,500 rushing yards.

Kellen Moore isn’t Liam Coen, but he’s one of the more respected offensive minds in football, and the Saints have shown real signs of life since he took over. Add in the fact that New Orleans has the second-easiest schedule in the NFL in 2026, per ESPN, and you’ve got about as good a recipe as you’ll find for a rushing title.

Receptions Leader: Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)

Last season, Zay Flowers posted a 29.1% target share (WR11) and had a 99.1% route participation rate (WR4). In other words, he’s on the field for every snap, and he’s already commanding a massive share of this offense.

Baltimore picked up Flowers’ fifth-year option and is reportedly working toward a long-term extension, which means Flowers has every incentive to put together a monster season and cement himself as one of the league’s top-paid receivers.

DeAndre Hopkins, Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar are gone, which leaves nearly 60 receptions up for grabs, not to mention that Mark Andrews is heading into his age-31 season.

The one wrinkle: Baltimore drafted two receivers, Ja’Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt, suggesting they could lean into more 11-personnel looks. But that’s exactly why this is a dark horse pick rather than a lock. Flowers is Lamar Jackson‘s unquestioned No. 1 WR, and as long as Jackson stays healthy, Flowers should get peppered with targets, regardless of who else is on the field.

Top-5 Tight End Finisher: Oronde Gadsden II (TE – LAC)

With David Njoku now a Charger, people seem to be spooked about Oronde Gadsden II. I don’t get it. Njoku is a 29-year-old, injury-riddled player in the final stages of his NFL career, and he signed for less than $1 million in guaranteed salary. We don’t even know if he’ll survive roster cuts, let alone eat meaningfully into Gadsden’s role.

Gadsden is, at worst, the third-best pass-catcher on the roster (behind Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston). I’d argue he’s better than Johnston and could be the second option for Herbert this season.

With Mike McDaniel calling plays now, expect a lot more 12-personnel in 2026. McDaniel has a track record of finding ways to get his most explosive players the ball, regardless of what the depth chart says on paper.

We just saw this exact blueprint play out in Cleveland, where Harold Fannin Jr. finished as the TE6 overall as a rookie playing alongside Njoku. The Browns led the league in 12-personnel usage in 2025 because they knew Fannin deserved to be on the field. There’s no reason to think Gadsden can’t follow the same path this year.

Waiver Wire Riser: Jaydon Blue (RB – DAL)

I’m genuinely high on Javonte Williams for redraft leagues this year. I think he’s in line for a big season. That said, Jaydon Blue is one of the more interesting contingency bets in the entire league.

The buzz out of organized team activities (OTAs) has been that Blue is turning heads and locking down the primary backup role behind Williams, with some even suggesting he could carve out a small standalone role.

What makes him worth stashing off the waiver wire is his unique skill set, which complements Williams well. Blue was one of the best pass-catching backs in the country at Texas, running legitimate receiver routes and even lining up on the boundary to make plays down the field.

Williams was genuinely bad as a receiver last season, posting a dismal 0.40 yards per route run (YPRR). If Dallas is looking for an answer on third downs, Blue’s college tape proves he’s the answer. Unless your league is incredibly shallow, Blue is worth a bench spot in PPR leagues. If Williams were to miss time, Blue would have top-24 upside at his position for fantasy.

Thanks for checking out today’s article. If you have any dynasty, devy or C2C-related questions, I can be reached on X @jim_DFF.

NFL

MLB

NBA

NHL