A month ago, I took a look at the most overpriced players on ESPN. We aren’t quite in peak draft season yet, so not much has changed since then. The players featured in that article are still way overvalued based on ESPN’s average draft position (ADP) compared to FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR). Go back and read that article first, then come back here for three more overvalued players to avoid on ESPN.
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Most Overvalued Fantasy Football Draft Picks on ESPN
Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR) | ESPN ADP: 96.1/ECR: 103
At first glance, the seven-pick gap between Matthew Stafford’s ADP and his ECR isn’t much. It’s arguably a completely negligible difference, given his middle-round price tag. However, we have to take into account the larger positional environment.
As a group, the cohort of back-end QB1s and high-end QB2s is being selected much later on ESPN than in ECR. The experts’ consensus QB9 (Trevor Lawrence) is ranked 76th overall. The ninth quarterback off the board in ESPN drafts (Dak Prescott) goes over 20 picks later at 98th overall. It’s a similar story for the two rankings’ respective QB12s (94 vs.113) and QB15s (103 vs. 122). No matter who you’re picking from this tier of quarterbacks, you should expect around a 20-pick discount on ESPN.
With this in mind, the fact that Stafford’s ADP is seven picks before his overall ECR sticks out like a sore thumb. We can also see this in his positional rankings: He is the QB15 in ECR while being all the way up at QB8 in ESPN ADP.
And the experts have this one decisively right. (If you don’t like blindly trusting ECR, consider that Stafford’s ADP on Underdog, a generally sharper platform with more up-to-date ADP, is QB14.) Yes, Stafford was the fantasy QB3 last year in the first MVP season of his long, productive career. But everything about his 2025 season just screams that regression is coming.
Most obviously, Stafford led the NFL with a whopping 46 passing touchdowns last season, 12 more than the next most prolific quarterback. His 7.7% touchdown rate was also easily the highest of any quarterback to play the full season. History consistently shows that quarterbacks with particularly high touchdown rates in one year tend to regress — and underperform their fantasy ADPs — the following year.
There’s a chance Stafford’s goal-line connection with Davante Adams (another overvalued player on ESPN) helps inoculate him from this regression. But his overall fantasy profile is fragile enough that even a moderate downward trend in passing touchdowns could have brutal consequences.
At this point in his career, the 38-year-old signal-caller adds literally zero value with his legs: He rushed for exactly one yard and zero touchdowns last season. As more and more quarterbacks bring at least some dual-threat upside, this total lack of rushing production gives Stafford an incredibly thin needle to thread to remain an elite fantasy option.
Of course, Stafford could run it back and provide another excellent fantasy year. But compared to other names on the ESPN board, his price simply doesn’t reflect his range of outcomes. Patrick Mahomes is going two full rounds later. Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert and Bo Nix (all of whom have rushing upside to go with the potential for outlier passing-touchdown seasons) go even later. Fantasy drafts are a game of opportunity cost and value over replacement, and Stafford’s ESPN ADP looks straight-up terrible any way you slice it in those metrics.
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG) | ESPN ADP: 30.0/ECR: 36
Once again, there’s more to this gap than meets the eye. For one, a difference of six picks is far more important in the third round than it is later in drafts. But Malik Nabers is also bucking a massive position-wide trend. Every single other top-20 wideout in ECR is going later in ESPN ADP. The average gap, even including Nabers, is 9.7 picks. With a bit of funny math, we can say that the third-year wideout is being overdrafted by 15.7 slots — more than a full round — compared to other players at his position.
Again, the discrepancy is clearer if we focus on positional rankings. Experts have ranked Nabers as the WR19; ESPN managers are drafting him as the WR12. That’s an absolutely huge gap, especially this early in drafts.
It’s pretty easy to diagnose where the disconnect is coming from. Nobody doubts Nabers’ talent, nor even his situation. The issue is his health. His 2025 season ended prematurely due to a devastating knee injury, which required both surgery in October and a cleanup procedure in the spring. His return timeline has already been pushed back at least once.
The way things stand right now, there’s a real chance Nabers will miss time to start the season. ESPN’s own Mike Clay has him projected for two games below the full 17. Even when he does return, there’s no guarantee Nabers will be his usual explosive self.
Depending on the price, it might be worth betting on Nabers’ upside despite the risk. But his WR12 ESPN ADP is not the right price to make that bet. That has him going ahead of players like Chris Olave, DeVonta Smith and Tetairoa McMillan — all of whom have similar WR1 upside without the same red flags. Things may change as we get more updates on his health closer to the season. But right now, Nabers is a straight-up bad pick in the middle of the third round on ESPN.
Kenyon Sadiq (TE – NYJ) | ESPN ADP: 147.4/ECR: 189
Kenyon Sadiq’s situation is more straightforward than the previous two players we discussed. We don’t have to look at positional trends here: A 40-pick gap speaks for itself. Even late in drafts, where Sadiq is going, that’s a huge difference.
As for the player himself, there are definitely things to like about Sadiq. He’s a hyperathletic rookie who earned elite draft capital as the 16th overall pick in this year’s draft. Although the Jets’ offense is looking more crowded, it still has only one truly established NFL pass-catcher in Garrett Wilson.
On the other hand, we’re still talking about a rookie tight end on the Jets. Even in the scenarios where he does hit, Sadiq will probably have to ride fantasy benches for a large portion of the year. The modal outcome is that he never emerges as more than a touchdown-or-bust member of the tight end wasteland.
The opportunity cost at Sadiq’s ADP isn’t brutal, but it still means passing on other players with objectively better ranges of outcomes (including the massively undervalued Dalton Kincaid at his position). Unless you’re a die-hard Jets fan — in which case you probably have other problems — don’t chase the rookie at his elevated price tag.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
