5 Overvalued Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid on CBS (2026)

Fantasy football isn’t just won by landing on a “league winner” or getting some good value picks in your draft. You also need to spot the landmines and dodge the players that are overvalued. With training camp clips going viral with catches and phenomenal plays, it’s important not to get lost in the hype.

These viral moments can swing a player’s average draft position (ADP) too high, and you could end up being disappointed. Looking at the CBS PPR ADP, these five players are set to disappoint in 2026.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid

Luther Burden III (WR – CHI) ADP: 51 | (WR22)

Ever since DJ Moore was traded to Buffalo, Burden’s ADP shot up like a cannon. He’s still ranked above proven veterans like Moore, Christian Watson, and Mike Evans.

From Week 13 on last season, among receivers with at least 100 routes run, Burden ranked third in yards per route run, fifth in targets per route run, and fourth in first downs per route run, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

The efficiency is impressive, but Burden isn’t going to see 80 more targets just because Moore is gone. Some of the targets will go to Rome Odunze as well. Are we forgetting how well Rome played in a very similar sample size?

Per Fantasy Points Data Suite (minimum 200 routes run) through the first eight weeks before Odunze went down with a foot injury, he ranked eighth in yards per route run, eighth in targets per route run, and fourth in first downs per route run.

There’s enough meat on the bone for both to feast. It’s not to say Burden isn’t intriguing with more opportunity. But you could make a case that the ADPs between the two should be flipped.

Travis Etienne (RB – NO) ADP: 40 | (RB19)

The Saints made Etienne a priority by signing him to a four-year deal. As productive as he was in Jacksonville, New Orleans decided to restructure Alvin Kamara‘s contract to keep him in-house.

Granted, Kamara is 31 years old, but he still offers a receiving presence that could eat into Etienne’s production more than his competition did in Jacksonville.

Through the first 10 weeks last season, before Kamara injured his knee, he recorded more receptions and yards than Etienne.

The newly acquired running back didn’t provide much explosiveness on the ground either.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, among 49 qualifying running backs, Etienne ranked 37th in explosive run rate, 34th in yards after contact per attempt, while also ranking 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt.

It’s fair to point out that Kamara didn’t do any better in those categories, but this backfield could still be split more than Etienne’s contract and ADP suggest.

Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS) ADP: 59 | (QB5)

He has the talent to bounce back after an injury-plagued season last year, but he’s being priced at his ceiling. Despite finishing QB5 in PPR fantasy points per game, a lot of it had to do with his rushing.

New offensive coordinator David Blough may limit him on the ground. The amount of hits he has taken in his short career is alarming.

The wide receiver corps improved after the Commanders signed Stefon Diggs, but it still doesn’t move the needle much for Daniels’ outlook. As great as last season went for Diggs in New England, he’s entering his age-32 season and will turn 33 in November, so a drop in production is possible.

With so many better offenses to attach your quarterback to, let someone else bet on the bounce-back. You can take more proven players at a better cost.

Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, and Dak Prescott offer the same type of upside without losing any sleep.

George Kittle (TE – SF) ADP: 91 | (TE9)

It’s not easy to fade someone like George Kittle, who historically finishes as a top-five fantasy tight end.

Despite missing five games early in the season with a hamstring injury, he still ranked first in yards per route run, third in targets per route run, and second in receiving yards per game among tight ends with at least 200 routes run, per Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Kittle was placed on the active Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list as he is still recovering from a torn Achilles in the Wild Card game. Although the team is optimistic for a Week 1 return, I’m hesitant to draft Kittle in fantasy.

Newly acquired wide receiver Mike Evans should eat into red-zone and end-zone opportunities, areas where he consistently ranked near the top of the league.

There’s no need to rush Kittle back when you have a proven, capable replacement in Jake Tonges.

In the five early-season games Kittle missed from Weeks 2 through 6 last year, Tonges ranked fourth in receptions and 10th in receiving yards per game while averaging 6.2 targets per game, per the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

With the tight end position being so deep and an increased competition for touchdown opportunities, Kittle is easier to fade at TE9 than his name value and history might suggest.

Michael Wilson (WR – ARI) ADP: 104 | (WR44)

I get the intrigue of wanting to take Wilson at WR43; it looks like a value, but in reality, it’s a trap. With the viral training camp videos drawing attention to Marvin Harrison Jr.‘s drops, Wilson’s ADP may climb even higher.

More than half of his receiving yardage came when Marvin Harrison Jr. missed time last season. He finished as a WR1 five times, but he also finished as a WR4 or worse 10 times.

The offense is also changing a bit, going from Drew Petzing to Nathaniel Hackett as the new offensive coordinator.

The Cardinals invested in the third overall pick in Jeremiyah Love, whose versatility should get him touches in both the running and passing game.

Wilson will have his weeks as he profiles as a boom-or-bust weekly receiver. The problem is knowing when they will come, and that makes it extremely hard to trust him.