9 Must-Have Fantasy Football Draft Picks (2026)

These aren’t just players our analysts like. These are the ones they consistently take earlier than their actual fantasy football draft slot, rather than hoping they fall. Organized by where in your draft to start planting these flags.

2026 Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Must-Have Picks

Early Rounds (1-4)

Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)

Flowers posted 86 catches, 1,211 yards, and six total touchdowns last year despite playing for a team that threw the fewest passes in the league over the last three years. He still commanded a 29% target share and nearly 37% of the team’s total receiving yardage. The Ravens remain likely to lean run-heavy again, but even a modest uptick in passing volume from such a historically low baseline would help, and the team didn’t add any proven pass-catching threats this offseason beyond a couple of rookies unlikely to command heavy target volume right away. His touchdown production has been capped mainly by minimal red zone usage, and a new offensive coordinator increasing that usage even slightly could unlock real touchdown growth. Our analysts range from ranking him four spots above consensus all the way up to a genuinely aggressive top-11 overall receiver valuation, with real belief in top-five upside if touchdowns normalize even modestly.

Javonte Williams (RB – DAL)

Going as the RB16, 34th overall, one analyst has him as a top-12 back and would consider taking him as early as round two, though round three works just as well. Over the first half of last season, he was the RB8 in fantasy points per game, backed by real efficiency, ranking top 20 in explosive run rate and top three in yards after contact per attempt. His touchdown production fell off over the back half of the season even though his efficiency and volume held steady, more a case of touchdown variance and nagging injuries than a real decline. He remains in one of the best offenses in the league with no real threat to his role in camp. The other analyst is closer to ADP, not out of a specific concern with the player but a general preference for receivers in that range, while flagging real inefficiency in the passing game last year as something to monitor, even though his numbers in that department were much stronger in prior seasons.

DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)

Going as the WR12, 30th overall, one analyst has him as his WR10 and draws a direct comparison to a receiver who broke out immediately after a more famous teammate left the team last year. With a star teammate now gone, real touchdown volume from both that departed player and a tight end who scored well outside his career norm last year could redistribute toward Smith, who scored just four touchdowns on 113 targets himself last season, real room for positive regression. A new offensive coordinator known for using significantly more pre-snap motion should help get him more easily open and moving around the formation more often. His career-best season, which included 130 targets, came while playing alongside that same now-departed star, and receivers with that kind of target volume and modest touchdown production tend to finish as top-10 fantasy receivers. The team also has one of the easiest schedules in the league for opposing pass defenses this year.

Middle Rounds (5-9)

Jameson Williams (WR – DET)

Williams has posted two straight 1,000-yard seasons, and the usage shift that fueled his second one wasn’t just about a teammate’s absence, but a genuine in-season change in play-calling that got him the ball closer to the line of scrimmage to use his after-the-catch ability rather than deploying him purely as a decoy running deep routes. From the point that shift happened onward, he finished as a top-10 receiver in half-PPR scoring, trailing a teammate by less than a point per game. The new offensive coordinator hire reportedly came with a real mandate to keep featuring him heavily. He averaged exactly six targets per game last year; a bump to seven or seven and a half could push him into a 1,200 to 1,300 yard season, especially playing for a team with real secondary issues that’s currently implied as the highest-scoring offense in the league this year.

Christian Watson (WR – GB)

Going as the WR29, 65th overall, one analyst has him as high as WR20 and would consider him as early as round four. Over the back half of last season, he finished as a top-21 receiver in fantasy points per game even with two now-departed teammates still active at the time. His route share last year ranked outside the top 50 among qualifying receivers, real room to grow now that the receiver room has thinned and he’s expected to stay on the field even in single-receiver personnel groupings. His per-route efficiency has already been elite, ranking top 10 in multiple advanced metrics, and the team’s offense remains efficient overall even with modest pass volume given how well its starting quarterback plays. When healthy last year, he was producing at roughly a 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown full-season pace.

Josh Downs (WR – IND)

Going as the WR42, 106th overall, one analyst has him as high as WR38 and considered pushing him even further. His career has been limited more by scheme usage and shaky quarterback play than by talent, having flashed real WR2-level production in stretches with competent quarterback play. His per-route target rate through his first three seasons compares favorably to several far more highly drafted receivers, despite Downs never being valued anywhere close to that range, largely because he’s been kept off the field in certain personnel groupings for a significant chunk of his career. With a teammate now gone and another dealing with a lingering injury, target competition should consolidate significantly in his favor, and his coaching staff has directly said it wants him on the field across every personnel package this year.

Later Rounds (10 and Beyond)

Kyler Murray (QB – MIN)

Going as the QB17, one analyst views this as real value in a year where quarterback production flattens out quickly beyond the top tier, naming roughly 19 total quarterbacks he’d be comfortable starting. Murray has finished as a fantasy QB1 in nearly every season of his career, with last year representing his only finish outside that range. He’s now paired with a highly regarded offensive-minded head coach and a significantly upgraded supporting cast, setting up a real bounce-back case. The other analyst is more personally hesitant and tends to draft in other directions at this point, while acknowledging the ceiling case is real.

Stefon Diggs (WR – WAS)

One analyst believes this is low-hanging fruit that likely won’t last deep into draft season. He’ll functionally be one of just two real receiving options in his new offense, and even in a lesser situation last year, he graded elite among qualifying receivers across nearly every per-route efficiency and man-coverage separation metric tracked. His route share last year was limited, and if it climbs in a more consolidated new offense, he should return real WR3 production with legitimate upside. The other analyst notes his new offense likely won’t be quite as high-volume as his last one, and he’ll share targets with an established teammate for the first time in this specific situation, though an increased route share compared to last year’s own return from a serious injury still supports real growth.

Tyler Shough (QB – NO)

Going as the QB21, 161st overall, one analyst ranks him as high as QB14. A personal charting project found him ranked first among a sample of 29 quarterbacks specifically on intermediate throws, a real staple of his offensive scheme, and with added weapons in the receiving corps this year, real downfield production upside exists. Once he became the established healthy starter last year, he finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in points per game from that point on, and top-six after a bye week reset. He also carries a real rushing floor, ranking top five in the league in designed rush yards before a late-season hip injury slowed him down. A rebuilt offensive line, added rookie and veteran weapons, and a heavy share of home and indoor games this year all support a real breakout case, drawing a direct comparison to a similar situationally-improved young quarterback who outperformed a similarly modest ADP the year after his own breakout finish.

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