I’ve broken down overvalued players in ESPN average draft position (ADP) two times already this offseason. But things change fast in the fantasy football world. One of the players I featured just last month — Malik Nabers — has actually switched from being overvalued to undervalued when comparing his ESPN ADP to expert consensus rankings (ECR).
To be fair, the rest are still consistently overdrafted, so I do recommend at least glancing at those old lists. But if you’re only going to read one article, it should be this one. It’s peak draft season, and these three players are still going way too high in ESPN leagues. Let’s get to it.
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Most Overvalued Fantasy Football Draft Picks on ESPN
Jeremiyah Love (RB – ARI) | ESPN ADP: 19.5/ECR: 39
This early in the draft, a 20-pick difference is massive. Jeremiyah Love has claimed the crown as the single most overvalued player (non-kicker division), with a 67% gap between his ECR and his ADP. This is a new development, as his ECR has fallen over the last month, perhaps in response to recent indications that the Cardinals plan to ease in the third overall pick in this year’s draft.
To be fair to Love, his ADP looks less egregious once we consider that running back prices are elevated across the board in ESPN drafts. But he’s still being overdrafted positionally: His ESPN ADP is RB9, his ECR is RB13.
Honestly, I don’t love (no pun intended) doubting the rookie. Yes, the recent buzz on his role isn’t encouraging. But you don’t draft a running back third overall in order not to use him. Although we’ve had some underwhelming results from highly-drafted rookie running backs in the recent past, the history of backs with this kind of draft capital is loaded with league winners. I would happily bet on Love every time in the fourth round, which is where he lands in ECR.
But the consensus has a point, too. The Cardinals are going to be one of the worst teams in the league this season. Ashton Jeanty proved last year that even genuinely elite young backs can struggle to produce in dismal situations. While I’m confident Love will get the majority of the work, Tyler Allgeier is a solid No. 2 RB who could claim a frustratingly large slice of an already small pie… just like he did with Bijan Robinson in his rookie season.
At the end of the day, this price is too much to pay for Love. His ceiling is league-winning, but his floor is real. There are other players with just as much upside and less downside available where he is being selected in the second round.
Travis Hunter (WR – JAX) | ESPN ADP: 116.7/ECR: 166
I love Travis Hunter this season. Yes, he has a unique downside — literally never playing on offense — and is stuck in a very crowded situation. But if you actually listen to what the Jaguars are saying, they still 100% plan to use last year’s second overall pick on both sides of the ball. From there, I’m willing to bet on his talent to eventually win out.
However, this take is cost-based (like all takes should be). My enthusiasm to bet on Hunter only exists as long as he is priced as a genuine dart throw. And that’s not at all the case on ESPN, where he is being drafted nearly 50 picks ahead of his ECR.
Hunter’s ESPN ADP looks even steeper once we consider positional trends. He’s a genuine outlier, as almost every other receiver is going lower on ESPN. As a result, his positional fantasy football ADP is all the way up at WR41; his ECR is WR65.
I should also note that Hunter’s unique role makes him a particularly bad fit for most ESPN leagues, which tend to be shallow and use traditional weekly lineup formats. Because he also plays defense, Hunter’s usage on offense is likely to vary wildly week to week depending on the Jaguars’ particular opponent and game plan. In a format like best ball, you can benefit from the one week where Hunter happens to play 70% of snaps and have a huge game. Those unpredictable points don’t help if he’s on your ESPN bench.
Hunter still has managed-league appeal. He could see more consistent usage if one of the Jaguars’ other receivers suffers an injury, or he could simply talent his way to a startable role. But those outcomes are by no means guaranteed, and he needs them to hit to pay off this price. As much as I don’t want to, I recommend avoiding Hunter unless he falls significantly past this ADP.
Brandon Aubrey (K – DAL) | ESPN ADP: 84.7/ECR: 184
I wasn’t planning on featuring Brandon Aubrey specifically, as I discussed how every single defense and kicker is overvalued in ESPN ADP in the initial edition of this article. But the three-time All-Pro just keeps showing up at the top of my spreadsheet, so I’m giving him his own breakdown.
This isn’t a case of the experts not agreeing that Aubrey is the best kicker available. With an average kicker rank of 1.1, he is in a tier of his own positionally. The issue is that experts have Aubrey (and every other kicker) ranked far, far lower overall, almost exactly 100 spots behind his ESPN ADP. And they’re right. Although it’s tempting to draft Aubrey and not have to think about your kicker spot again (at least until Dallas’ Week 14 bye week), taking him anywhere near the top 100 picks is a massive waste of value.
For one, despite being almost certainly the league’s most talented kicker, Aubrey is by no means guaranteed to be the most productive fantasy option. He wasn’t in 2025, finishing third behind Seattle’s Jason Myers and Houston’s Ka’imi Fairbairn. The last time the preseason K1 by ADP finished as the actual K1 was in 2022, Justin Tucker‘s final season as the undisputed top leg in the league.
Of course, most positions’ top player by ADP isn’t likely to actually finish as the top option — I’m not saying we should fade Ja’Marr Chase just because he isn’t guaranteed to end the year as the overall WR1.
The issue is that, at kicker, falling even a few spots down the rankings quickly kills a player’s value. If Chase finishes as the overall WR5, he’s still a hugely valuable player. If Aubrey ends the year as the K5, he’s basically worthless. Last year’s K5 in points per game, Cameron Dicker, was barely a point per game ahead of the replacement-level K13 (10.0 to 8.9). Once we factor in how easy it is to effectively stream the position, non-elite kickers are even more replaceable.
The final problem with Aubrey is that he doesn’t control his own destiny. Football is a team game, and all fantasy players will be affected by the rest of their team. But no other position is as opportunity-dependent as kickers are. Right now, Dallas looks like an ideal situation for a kicker, with an elite offense and a weak defense. But things change fast in the NFL. What if that defense takes a step forward or Dak Prescott gets hurt (again)? The Cowboys’ weekly projections will drop, and Aubrey’s will drop right along with them.
As safe and comfortable as it feels, drafting Aubrey anywhere near his ADP is lighting a pick on fire in terms of opportunity cost. There are still players at other positions with genuinely elite upside available at that point in drafts: Mike Evans, Tucker Kraft and Prescott himself, to name a few. If you just want to avoid having to put a little effort in each week, Aubrey might be worth it. If you want to win your league, don’t do it.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.