Jamie Calandro shares his bold predictions for the AL East in 2015.

Note: This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts. For more insight from Jamie at Fantasy Team Advice.

Last week I had a lot of fun posting a bold prediction for each team in the AL East, and it spawned some nice conversation in the forums over at www.fantasyteamadvice.com where I write regularly. Remember, just because a prediction is bold doesn’t mean it’s outlandish, as evidenced by the division we are dealing with today, the AL Central. Consider some stars from this division last year. How many of us had Corey Kluber winning the Cy Young? Or Victor Martinez being a top three MVP candidate? Or (and most importantly from a real baseball standpoint), the ROYALS going to the World Series? Since 2014, there have been some shakeups in the Central (bye-bye Scherzer), so let’s have some fun and make some bold prognostications for 2015.

DETROIT TIGERS

My Bold Prediction – Joe Nathan will be fantasy-irrelevant on the Tigers before May 1st.

I hate saying this one. I have deep respect for the guy, and he has special appeal to us Long Islanders for helping to put Stony Brook University on the athletic map. That being said, in fantasy sports you have to think with your brain, not your heart, and your brain should immediately begin processing his 2014 stats. Need reminding? In 2014 he posted a 4.81 ERA and 1.53 WHIP while watching his K/9 dip from 10.16 to 8.38 and his HR/FB rate balloon from 3.0% to 8.1%. Some of this can be blamed on bad luck since he had a 3.94 FIP and 4.14 xFIP, but those numbers still aren’t great, and he’s going to enter the 2015 season at the age of 40. If the Tigers didn’t have any other options, I’d say Nathan would have a longer leash, but Joakim Soria and Joel Hanrahan are there with 273 career saves between the two of them. In addition, the Tigers have already publicly stated that fireballer Bruce Rondon is the closer of the future, and he has recovered from his Tommy John surgery rapidly. Nathan blew seven saves in 2014, and I think two in April is all it will take to get him the axe.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

My Bold Prediction – Jose Abreu will NOT be a top-25 player in fantasy baseball this year.

The White Sox are an interesting candidate to make a title run this year. I believe they made some very smart key additions to both their lineup (Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche) and their pitching staff (Jeff Samardzija, David Robertson) to compete with anyone in the American League. That being said, I think Abreu owners will be left wanting this year. Don’t get me wrong. I am certainly not saying he’s going to be a total bust, and I’m definitely not implying that he can’t match his power totals either. The fact remains, however, that rookies always hit a wall. Some hit it quickly, and some get through most or even a full year before it happens (hence the term “sophomore slump”). It will happen though. Pitchers adjust, and slumps occur – it’s just the nature of the game. Let’s look at the indicators – Abreu hit .317 with 36 HR despite having the second-highest K/BB ratio among hitters with 20 HR or more, and his .356 BABIP suggests regression is inevitable. I believe that with an entire offseason to look at the books on Abreu, teams will realize that his contact % when swinging at balls out of the strike zone was only 54.8%. Translation – he will see a ton more breaking pitches, and he will miss them. I still believe he’ll put together a nice season, but his ADP is currently mid-first round, which seems rather insane to me considering Miguel Cabrera’s is lower.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

My Bold Prediction – Alex Gordon will be a 20/20 player this year.

I have to hedge my bet on this one by saying this will only happen if he’s ready for Opening Day. Gordon recently underwent an extensor retinaculum repair (say that five time fast) on his right wrist, and while he is progressing quickly, there is sentiment around the club that he could be brought along slowly in Spring Training. As long as Gordon is healthy, however, I think we are going to see the quietest 20/20 we’ve seen since Ian Desmond the last few years. Gordon finished 2014 with 19 HR and 12 steals, which suggests the upside for 20/20 is not QUITE there with the running category. However, I think the loss of Norichika Aoki is the key here. The Royals will have to replace his #2 spot in the batting order with someone, and who better to go there than an on-base machine like Gordon? Alex has averaged 156 games per season the last four years, and the boost in batting order should be just enough to give him the necessary at-bats to achieve career numbers across the board. It also helps that the Royals added some more pop to the lineup in the form of Kendrys Morales and Alex Rios (well, Rios is supposed to have pop), and Lorenzo Cain emerged as a legit 3-hole hitter.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

My Bold Prediction – Corey Kluber will top 300 strikeouts this season.

Full disclosure – I’m saying this because I get to keep him for a dollar this year and wish it to be true. It’s not ridiculous however. Kluber notched 269 strikeouts in 235.2 innings pitched (good for a 10.27 K/9). To get to that 300 plateau this year, he has a few things working for him. The first is that he faces two teams in his division multiple times who finished in the bottom half of baseball in strikeout rate (KC and CHW). Of the other two squads, only the Royals kept up their low K-rate all year (the Tigers regressed massively in the second half, and regular at-bats from J.D. Martinez and Yoenis Cespedes should help that K-rate stay high). Since Kluber will be the focal point of the rotation (opening day, potential playoff-relevant games down the stretch), I feel as though his IP totals will increase from 235 to about 275-280 (he is only 28 years old, after all). If you look at someone like Randy Johnson who topped 300 Ks routinely (even in his mid-30s), the key was averaging 35 starts per year (Kluber had 34 in 2014) and maintaining a K/9 of around 12 (Kluber’s strike % increased significantly over the second half, evidence that he is still evolving as a pitcher and has not yet reached his pinnacle).

MINNESOTA TWINS

My Bold Prediction – Brian Dozier will hit at least .270/25/80 with 100+ runs and 25+ SB

That’s a massive line to predict, and would put him right in line at the top of all second basemen in the rankings at the end of 2015. Sound silly? Here’s his 2014 line – .242/23/71/112/21. The floor is there – now we just need the ceiling. Despite their garbage season last year, the Twins still finished fifth in the AL with 4.41 runs scored per game, which is one of the bigger shocks of 2014. Dozier will enter the 2015 season entrenched in the #2 hole behind upstart Danny Santana. Add in the addition of Torii Hunter, the emergence of Kennys Vargas, and the return of Joe Mauer, and that will provide Brian Dozier with some much-needed protection. The average was very low (an 18.2 K% will do that to a man), but it should be noted that his K-rate has dropped each year in the majors, and his LD% and HR/FB rate have increased. A .269 BABIP last year suggests some seriously rotten luck as well, and I think we see Dozier take that big step to fantasy stardom this season.

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Jamie is the Lead Baseball Writer for Fantasy Team Advice. You can follow him on Twitter @jac3600.

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