How will Brandon LaFell perform coming off his career year?
Last season, New England Patriots wide receiver Brandon LaFell was very productive. This year, LaFell is flying under the fantasy radar. While the reasons vary, the underlying thought process is that he won’t repeat his gaudy numbers from 2014. With his walking boot shed he’s ready for Patriots training camp, ready to build on his career year. Last season, LaFell set career highs in targets, receptions, receiving yardage, and touchdowns. And in the first two games of the regular season, he was targeted just six times (Week 1) and did not catch a pass.
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While LaFell’s career body of work has been inconsistent, his catch percentage over the years has been very consistent. Unfortunately, prior to last season he never received more than 85 targets in a season. Last season LaFell had a higher catch percentage than several prominent wide receivers, including Dez Bryant. He was 31st in the NFL in targets (119) during the regular season. In the playoffs, he racked up 27 targets en route to the Patriots’ fourth Super Bowl victory. Tom Brady clearly entrusted LaFell, and the opportunity led to unparalleled success for the fifth-year wide receiver.
With Brady’s suspension length still in limbo, many are discrediting the Patriots skill players in the beginning of the season. During Jimmy Garoppolo’s lone touchdown drive against the Kansas City Chiefs however, he connected with LaFell for a 37 yard gain. LaFell also caught three passes thrown his way in the second half of the season finale against Buffalo when Garoppolo came in for Brady. Additionally, training camp and preseason provide adequate time for the Patriots to acclimate. Regardless of Brady’s suspension length, LaFell will not be starving for targets in the Patriots’ passing game.
While Julian Edelman is ballyhooed in the fantasy community, the difference between he and LaFell’s production on the field last season was marginal considering their difference in ADP. And that’s being polite. LaFell was being drafted after (then) teammate Kenbrell Thompkins in the 15th round as the NFL was nearing Week 1. Edelman was near the end of the 5th round. LaFell set career highs with 74 catches for 953 yards and seven touchdowns in 2014 while Edelman caught 92 passes for 972 yards and four touchdowns. The difference for Edelman was a mere 16 additional targets for 19 more yards and three fewer touchdowns.
In standard non-PPR leagues last season, LaFell finished as the WR21. In PPR leagues, he finished in the top 25 ahead of Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, and Marques Colston. According to the ADP rankings here at FantasyPros, both Johnson and Jackson are being taken well ahead of LaFell, and Colston is being drafted slightly later. This is despite all three receivers being over 32 years old and dealing with changes in their respective offenses.
LaFell won’t be a name called on draft day that garners a lot of groans. In fact he might even cause some owners to laugh. But his body of work last season hints towards continued success in one of the NFL’s best offenses. It’s also important to note the chip that will be on the Patriots shoulder this season. The last time New England was involved in controversy, they wanted to “kill opposing teams” and finished the regular season 16-0. If the Patriots have a similar sentiment in 2015, LaFell might have another career year ahead.
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Matt Giraldi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Matt, check out his archive or follow him @Mgiraldi.
