Will 2016 be the Year of Thor?
With three rounds down, where a heavy focus was on hitters, the focus for most of our experts moved to building their pitching rotation. While two owners have yet to pick a pitcher through five rounds, each of the other 11 teams have at least one starting pitcher on their roster. Most teams are successful with two top pitchers and then a good combination of middle pitchers, so the strategy that our experts have employed are very sound.
Remember to keep track of live updates of the Mock Draft @thezman2010 on Twitter or at #FPMockDraft.
Read below for picks and analysis for the second and third round of the 2016 FantasyPros MLB Mock Draft.
Draft Wizard: Mock in minutes vs. the most accurate experts 
4.01 Rob Klein – Carlos Gonzalez – OF, Colorado Rockies
After battling various injuries over the last few seasons, Gonzalez was able to play in 153 games in 2015. The result of a full season was a .270 batting average with a career-high 40 home runs and 97 RBI. Playing in Coors Field for 81 games does not hurt either and at 30-years old he is not exactly over the hill. With other sluggers like Miguel Cabrera, Manny Machado and Nelson Cruz already rostered, Rob felt he could absorb the injury risk that Gonzalez will bring.
C- 1B- Cabrera 2B- SS- 3B-Machado OF- Cruz OF-Gonzalez OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.02 John Aubin – Madison Bumgarner – SP, San Francisco Giants
John wanted to go hitter with this selection after picking his potential ace in Jose Fernandez, but did not like the bats in this range. So he went with the best player available. He does always like to have two aces when building a fantasy team. Bumgarner, considered a top-five pitcher, as his second ace should gives John’s team strength at the top of the rotation. Bumgarner just turned in his best statistical season of his career, as he set career-best marks in strikeouts (234), walks (39), and innings pitched (218 1/3). At the age of 26, Bumgarner is still coming into his prime as a pitcher and should continue to improve on these numbers. He should once again finish around 18 wins with a similar K/9 rate and WHIP which would once again put him in the elite company of starting pitchers.
C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B-Bryant OF-McCutchen OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- Fernandez P-Bumgarner P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.03 Matthew Davis – Carlos Gomez – OF, Houston Astros
Matthew does not mind having three outfielders after four picks, especially since there is a plethora of starting pitching still available. Carlos Gomez is getting overlooked after not meeting his first-round expectations in 2015. Gomez is healthy and eager to play an entire season in Houston, particularly since the Astros’ lineup is talented and has the potential to put up a lot of crooked numbers. GoGo is going to post similar numbers to 2013 and 2014 and is the guy for you if you are happy with a 20/30 season while being among the league-leaders in runs. Getting the type of player that will fill all of the categories in the fourth round makes Gomez a great pick.
C- 1B-Rizzo 2B- SS- 3B- OF- Pollock OF-Upton OF-Gomez UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.04 Chris Zolli – Kyle Schwarber – C/OF, Chicago Cubs
Although my strategy is usually to wait on catchers, here I am again considering a backstop, and finally adding Kyle Schwarber to my roster. While Buster Posey would have been a stable force at catcher, providing a strong batting average and marginal power numbers, the free-swinging Schwarber is the polar opposite. Right off the bat, Schwarber had 16 home runs in 69 games with the Cubs in 2015, posting similarly sublime numbers in isolated power (.241) and strikeout percentage (28.2%). Although Schwarber’s hot streak to begin his career cooled to a .241 batting average over his 232 at-bats, his 13.2% walk percentage saw his OBP finish at a strong .355. He found strong contact with the ball during the 2015 season. Only 14.7% of his balls in play were softly hit, and he even showed that he could steal five bases a season, as he had three in 2015. On top of his strong statistics as a catcher, Schwarber also has eligibility in the outfield and has hitters like Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant flanking him in the lineup. He can be a top-15 hitter just like Rizzo and Bryant in 2016 with his slugging profile.
C-Schwarber 1B- 2B- SS- 3B-Arenado OF- Marte OF-Martinez OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.05 David Marcillo – Matt Harvey – SP, New York Mets
David did not want to take pitching this early, but he was underwhelmed by the position players around this ADP. Harvey is a true ace and, in a rotation with incredible upside, his might be the highest. Finally past his Tommy John recovery year, Harvey may be in for his best season yet.
C-Posey 1B-Votto 2B- SS- 3B- OF- Stanton OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- Harvey P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.06 Jamie Mellor – David Price – SP, Boston Red Sox
Jamie saw a lot of the guys he wanted go off the board since his last pick, looking both at hitters like Carlos Gonzalez and pitchers like Matt Harvey. With starting pitchers flying off the shelves, it came down to Price or Zack Greinke as a staff ace. Price has more strikeout potential, arguably a better offense supporting him, and a better bullpen for protection. Neither landed in a friendly park for pitchers, but it is likely that Greinke gains at least a full run on his ERA, if not more. If Price and Greinke are even somewhat close in ERA, the other advantages seem to suggest Price.
C- 1B- 2B- SS-Correa 3B- OF- Betts OF-Braun OF- UT- UT- UT- P- Price P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.07 Matt Terelle – Zack Greinke – SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
At first when Matt saw that Greinke signed in hitter-friendly Arizona, he was a little disappointed as he also invested in the star righty in a few dynasty leagues. Upon further review, Matt’s concerned disappeared a bit and he has been aggressively targeting him around the fourth round. During his three years with the Dodgers, Greinke has pitched quite well in Chase Field, going 6-0 with 41 strikeouts over 41.1 innings of work and allowing just three earned runs. Greinke is still a top-five pitcher and Matt is happy to get him in the middle of the fourth round, a round or so later than he would have gone if he re-signed with the Dodgers.
C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B-Donaldson OF- Bautista OF-Blackmon OF- UT- UT- UT- P- Greinke P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.08 Eric Townsend – Jacob deGrom – SP, New York Mets
Like many of his fellow drafters, Eric was not in love with any of the bats in this area, and decided that bolstering his starting pitching with a second top-10 arm was the way to go. DeGrom had his second season last year, pitching 191 innings after a Rookie of the Year 2014 campaign, and blew everyone away with a 2.54 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 9.66 K/9. What was possibly even more impressive was deGrom’s control, notably in the area of allowing walks, as he actually lowered his walks from 43 in 2014, to 38 in 2015, despite pitching 51 more innings. The Mets should be a playoff team again in 2016, giving deGrom plenty of chances for wins. He should pass the 200 IP mark this year as well, which would boost his impressive numbers even further, giving him top-5 SP potential.
C- 1B-Abreu 2B-Altuve SS- 3B- OF- Cole OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P-deGrom P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.09 Kerry Kauffman – Dallas Keuchel – SP, Houston Astros
Kerry’s first two choices for the second spot in his rotation were Greinke and deGrom, but Keuchel is certainly a solid option. He is a workhorse who logged 232 innings in 2015, compiling 216 strikeouts, a WHIP of 1.017, an ERA of 2.48 and he won the American League Cy Young Award. While it is unrealistic to expect the same kind of season, an average of the last two years is a realistic expectation. That would put Keuchel in the 16 win range with an ERA in the upper 2.00s, around 210 innings and 180 strikeouts. The addition of Keuchel solidifies the top of any rotation and, along with solid corner men, Kerry is ready to work on the middle infield and outfield positions to fill his roster.
C- 1B-Encarnacion 2B- SS- 3B-Frazier OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P-Kershaw P-Keuchel P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.10 Daniel Marcus – Adam Jones – OF, Baltimore Orioles
Daniel was thrilled to get Jones in the late fourth round, as he believes that he drafted his second elite outfielder. His average fell last year, but his strikeout rate fell from prior seasons as well and his batted ball profile did not change in any alarming way from his elite seasons. His HR/FB also rose from the 2014 season and was better than many of his seasons earlier in his career. Still, Jones is on the wrong side of 30 and no longer steals bases, but his price tag is no longer a first-round pick and he provides tremendous value at this spot. A 30 home run season with a .285 average is not out of the question for Jones.
C- 1B-Goldschmidt 2B- SS- 3B- OF- Springer OF-Jones OF- UT- UT- UT- P- Sale P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.11 Roy Widrig – Noah Syndergaard – SP, New York Mets
The Mets Big Three is gone, and Roy felt that he drafted the one who will have the best 2016 season. His big 6-foot-6, 240 pound frame is one that is missed by Roy’s beloved Blue Jays and is one a manager dreams of; sturdy and capable of throwing a baseball incredibly hard. In 2015, the rookie showed that he can easily toss deep into the season, carrying the Mets to the World Series after 150 innings of a 3.24 ERA and 166 strikeouts. His Steamer projections have him improving more in 2016 to the tune of a sub-3.25 ERA and a 4.1 WAR season with 9.9 K/9, 2.34 BB/9 and a minuscule .88 HR/9.
C- 1B-Davis 2B- SS- 3B- OF-Harper OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P-Arrieta P-Syndergaard P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.12 Gavin Tramps – Corey Kluber – SP, Cleveland Indians
There was clear daylight between Corey Kluber and the next available player on Gavin’s draft board. Kluber is only available because of his 9-16 record and 3.49 ERA because all of his other stats make him a top-five SP. There was an argument that Kluber’s greater strikeout rate, lower walk rate and similar FIP made him a more worthy recipient the of the AL Cy Young award than Dallas Keuchel. Over the last two years, the Indians’ ace has tossed 457 2/3 innings (second most in majors) with 514 strikeouts (third most). His 2.65 FIP (third best) and 1.08 WHIP make him a value pick as the 14th starting pitcher off the board.
C- 1B- 2B-Gordon SS- 3B- OF-Trout OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P-Scherzer P-Kluber P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.01 Gavin Tramps – Stephen Strasburg – SP, Washington Nationals
The downside of drafting at the turn is the quantity of players that will be taken before the next pick. Gavin did not need a third pitcher this early, but he was doubtful that there will be any elite starting pitchers available at his sixth pick. The Nationals’ flamethrower has a 10.44 SO/9 over the last two years (fourth best among starting pitchers) with a 2.61 xFIP. His ERA remains 0.33 above his FIP, suggesting the likelihood of improved figures and pitching in the NL East, there is high win potential. What attracted Gavin the most is that we still may not have seen the best from Stephen Strasburg.
C- 1B- 2B-Gordon SS- 3B- OF-Trout OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P-Scherzer P-Kluber P-Strasburg P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.02 Roy Widrig – Chris Archer – SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Eight of the 12 picks in Round 4 went to starting pitchers, and Gavin and Roy are continuing that theme into Round 5. Chris Archer gives Roy’s team a solid foundation of three aces to start the season (yes, Noah Syndergaard is not quite there yet, but Roy sees 2016 as the season he breaks out). At the end of the 2014 season, Roy saw what Chris Archer could do as he remained the one reason to tune into Tampa Bay Rays games every fifth day. Six innings is a given and seven per start is more than possible for Archer. He will likely deliver 200 solid innings in 2016. He is a safe bet for around 200 strikeouts and a sub-3.30 ERA in 2016. Aside from 29 innings as a call-up in 2012, Archer has been well above-average in ERA- in his career, posting 84, 90 and 83 from 2013-2015, respectively.
C- 1B-Davis 2B- SS- 3B- OF-Harper OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P-Arrieta P-Syndergaard P-Archer P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.03 Daniel Marcus – Carlos Carrasco – SP, Cleveland Indians
Not only is there a run on pitchers, but also a run on Cleveland Indians’ arms. Carrasco is an upside pick, as his ERA was not stellar last year but both his FIP and xFIP suggest his ERA should have been almost an entire run better. A full season of Geovany Urshela and Francisco Lindor behind him should help erase some of the defensive woes that hurt Indians’ pitching last year, giving an opportunity for Carrasco to really break out. In terms of the draft, he compliments a guy like Chris Sale well because they are both tremendous strikeout pitchers. Daniel’s other consideration at this spot was Felix Hernandez and it was hard to pass on him, but some slight dips in velocity last year pushed Daniel towards the upside of Carrasco.
C- 1B-Goldschmidt 2B- SS- 3B- OF- Springer OF-Jones OF- UT- UT- UT- P- Sale P-Carrasco P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.04 Kerry Kauffman – Matt Kemp – OF, San Diego
After solidifying the corner positions and the top of his rotation, Kerry turned to the outfield. With a large majority of the top oufiedlers chosen up to this point, he found a solid veteran in Matt Kemp to man the first oufield position. While Kemp is not the dominant force he was with the Dodgers in his prime, he regained some of his past glory last season, belting 23 home runs, knocking in 100 runs and stealing 12 bases. His .265 average was the lowest since 2010, but his 100 RBI season was the first since 2011. Expect Kemp to be a 25 home run, 100 RBI man and hit around .275. Kerry sees Kemp as a value player in the fifth round and can build his outfield around him.
C- 1B-Encarnacion 2B- SS- 3B-Frazier OF-Kemp OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P-Kershaw P-Keuchel P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.05 Eric Townsend – Troy Tulowitzki – SS, Toronto Blue Jays
Troy Tulowitzki is both wonderful and infuriating to own. Every year it is not a question of if, but when he will get injured, and how many games will be missed as a result. However, there are few shortstops better in the power department, where this position is especially weak. Tulowitzki has not played in more than 140 games in a season since 2011, but if he can do that we are looking at a 20-25 HR/.300 AVG/80 R/95 RBI caliber player. Keep in mind, he is only 31, so there could be some peak years left for the SS, especially due to how few games he has played due to the previously mentioned injury woes. With a dynamite Blue Jays’ lineup around him, look for a big year from Tulowitzki, as he will be battling youngster Carlos Correa for the No. 1 SS on the player rater.
C- 1B-Abreu 2B-Altuve SS-Tulowitzki 3B- OF- Cole OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P-deGrom P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.06 Matt Terelle – Miguel Sano – UT, Minnesota Twins
Sano is a luxury pick here, but it is hard to pass up on his potential as he heads into his first full big league season. He has elite power and is primed for a 40 home run/100 RBI campaign. He hit 18 home runs in just 80 games last season and his .262 ISO would have been 11th in the league had he made enough plate appearances to qualify.
C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B-Donaldson OF- Bautista OF-Blackmon OF- UT-Sano UT- UT- P- Grienke P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.07 Jamie Mellor – Felix Hernandez – SP, Seattle Mariners
Jamie really wanted Sano and sees Sano as a steal in the latter part of the fifth round. After much thought, he decided to grab another ace who he thinks will bounce back. Hernandez’s ERA was mostly a product of a few bad outings, and Jamie sees him returning to his elite level in 2016.
C- 1B- 2B- SS-Correa 3B- OF- Betts OF-Braun OF- UT- UT- UT- P- Price P-Hernandez P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.08 David Marcillo – Sonny Gray – SP, Oakland Athletics
Another pick, another pitcher. Sonny Gray seems to stay under the radar when talking about aces, but he had an excellent 2015, collecting 14 wins and posting a 2.73 ERA. Gray does not have the huge strikeout ceiling of the pitchers taken in earlier rounds, but he gets to pitch home games in one of the league’s friendliest parks for pitchers.
C-Posey 1B-Votto 2B- SS- 3B- OF- Stanton OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- Harvey P-Gray P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.09 Chris Zolli – Lorenzo Cain – OF, Kansas City Royals
Before picking Schwarber in the fourth round, I seriously considered the stability of Cain, so seeing him a round later is a pleasant surprise. After hitting .301 with 28 stolen bases in 2014, Cain matched his 2014 total in steals in 2015, seeing his batting average jump to .307 and adding 18 more extra-base hits, 19 more RBI, 46 more runs to his 2014 totals. All told, Cain had 56 extra-base hits, 72 RBI, 101 runs, and an .838 OPS for the World Champion Royals. In 2015, Cain was one of only two players with 25 or more stolen bases and a OPS over .825 (A.J. Pollock is the other) and he finished third in the American League MVP voting. Alex Gordon re-signing with the Royals is another positive sign for Cain, providing the All-Star more support in the lineup. A lower strikeout rate, 16.4% in 2015, yielded the biggest season of his career, as did a boost in fly ball and hard hit ball percentage. Cain’s fly ball percentage was up nearly 5% in 2015 to 31.3% and his hard hit ball percentage was up more than 10% from 2014 to 31.9% in 2015. He is a steal in the late fifth round, filling in all categories for a fantasy team.
C-Schwarber 1B- 2B- SS- 3B-Arenado OF- Marte OF-Martinez OF-Cain UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.10 Matthew Davis – Yoenis Cespedes – OF, New York Mets
Matthew has yet to select a pitcher and did not feel inclined to take one here either, even though there have already been 15 pitchers taken. At the time of the draft, Yoenis Cespedes was still a free agent. While some like to gauge a player’s ceiling by their home park, Cespedes has proved his power is true in any stadium. If Cespedes had signed with the Orioles or another team that had a hitter’s park, his ceiling would get a boost. Instead, he re-signed with the Mets. In 2015, Cespedes played for the Tigers and Mets for a combined 676 at-bats, posting 35 HR, 105 RBI and 101 runs scored, and a solid .291 AVG. Cespedes’ .367 wOBA, .251 ISO and 135 wRC+ in 2015 are insane and at age 30 there is still room for progression.
C- 1B-Rizzo 2B- SS- 3B- OF- Pollock OF-Upton OF-Gomez UT-Cespedes UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.11 John Aubin – Adrian Gonzalez – 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
With there being a dropoff after the top first baseman this year, John wanted to ensure he got a top notch player at that position. Adrian Gonzalez is a safe pick as well as dependable. He puts up consistent numbers year in and year out and does not miss games. He may not have the upside of a couple of players passed over but has a higher floor. He should be good for .275, 25-28 home runs and 90-100 runs batted in.
C- 1B-Gonzalez 2B- SS- 3B-Bryant OF-McCutchen OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- Fernandez P-Bumgarner P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.12 Rob Klein – Cole Hamels – SP, Texas Rangers
After loading up on power hitters with his first four picks, Rob started to work on his pitching staff with his fifth selection. Cole Hamels was a highly sought after commodity in the trade market while beginning last season as a member of the rebuilding Phillies. Hamels was then traded to Texas and finished the season with a 13-8 record and 215 strikeouts in 212.1 innings. Now that he is settled in Texas and pitching for a playoff contender, Hamels should increase his win total while reaching the 200 strikeout mark as he has done in four of the last six years.
C- 1B- Cabrera 2B- SS- 3B-Machado OF- Cruz OF-Gonzalez OF- UT- UT- UT- P-Hamels P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
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Chris Zolli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Chris, check out his archive and follow him @thezman2010.
