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FantasyPros Mock Draft: Round 2 & 3 Recap

FantasyPros Mock Draft: Round 2 & 3 Recap
Kris_Bryant_Cubs9

Kris Bryant emerged as a great slugger from day one, can he take it to another level in 2016?

After the key players on teams were picked in the first round, the next two rounds of the draft saw more solid players go off of the board. Many owners formed their roster around multi-talented players and 31 of the first 36 picks have been hitters. Our analysts have chosen to go the conventional method of forming their rosters on hitters, but some of the top SPs in baseball have already been picked. There are a lot of valuable pitchers still available, but the top tier hitters are no longer available.

Remember to keep track of live updates of the Mock Draft @thezman2010 on Twitter or at #FPMockDraft.

Read below for picks and analysis for the second and third round of the 2016 FantasyPros MLB Mock Draft.

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2.01 Rob Klein- Manny Machado – 3B, Baltimore Orioles

“I had the choice of two young talented third basemen at this spot. Quick question, who is younger Manny Machado or Kris Bryant? Machado is only 23 one year younger than Bryant and yet already, has 68 career home runs including 35 last season while batting .285. He drove in 86 runs, scored 102 runs and even swiped 20 bases which is a nice bonus. I liked Machado’s experience and batting average a little bit better than Bryant at this stage, but both are franchise type players on anyone’s roster. Selecting Cabrera and Machado at this point of the draft gives my lineup two power-hitting corner infielders with high batting average potential which will give me flexibility in the later rounds. If I needs to add power or speed later in the draft, these two selections of Cabrera and Machado will help me balance out the team.

C- 1B- Cabrera 2B- SS- 3B-Machado OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

2.02 John Aubin- Kris Bryant – 3B, Chicago Cubs

This will be the fourth third baseman taken in the first 13 picks. I feel like Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado and Kris Bryant are comparable in value. The three of them will all be ranked similarly in most leagues. Early season FantasyPros rankings have Bryant ranked higher than Arenado but all three players are only a few spots apart. I am happy to get Bryant at this pick. He has tremendous upside and should improve on his rookie season numbers in which he hit 26 home runs, scored 87 runs and stole 13 stolen bases. There is no reason he cannot improve on those numbers with a full season in the bigs. An added bonus is his outfield eligibility in most leagues. This will give me some versatility in my lineup.

C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B-Bryant OF-McCutchen OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

2.03 Matthew Davis- A.J. Pollock – OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

A healthy (673 PA) A.J. Pollock showed everybody what he was capable of doing in 2015. The 28-year-old busted out with 20 HR, 76 RBI, 111 runs scored and 39 stolen bases, along with a .315 AVG. Pollock’s .371 wOBA, 132 wRC+ and .182 ISO are eye-popping. In 2014, Pollock was only able to play in 75 games (287 PA) but posted a .372 wOBA, 134 wRC+ and a .196 ISO. Chase Field is an elite park for hitters and Pollock stuffs the stat line across the board. You should be thinking progression rather than regression when it comes to A.J. Pollock in 2016. Pollock is currently ranked in my top 10, making this an easy selection with the third pick in the second round.

C- 1B-Rizzo 2B- SS- 3B- OF- Pollock OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

2.04 Chris Zolli- Starling Marte – OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Starling Marte fills all categories ala Andrew McCutchen, providing a little less power and average, but a bit more speed. He came into the 2015 season with a bit of a problem staying on the field, as he played 135 games in both 2013 and 2014, but he played 153 games in 2015 and saw his home runs jump to a career-high 19. He has stolen 30 bases for three straight seasons and had 51 extra-base hits in 2015, posting a .780 OPS. His strikeout rate dropped from 24% in 2014 to 19.4% in 2015, but his walk rate also dropped to 4.3% in 2015 from 6.1%, yielding a drop in OBP from .356 in 2014 to .337 in 2015. A huge factor for Marte was that his BABIP was only .333 in 2015, 20 points below his career average and 40 points lower than 2014. Although his BABIP was 40 points lower in 2015, his batting average only dropped four points to .287, a sign that Marte is hitting the ball well. Another alarming issue for fantasy owners is that his HR/FB percentage was 18.6% in 2015, considerably higher than the 12.7% in 2014. Even with the poor statistical trends, I would still take a Marte that hits 15 home runs with a .290 batting average, 80 or more runs, and 35 or more steals.

C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B-Arenado OF- Marte OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

2.05 David Marcillo- Joey Votto – 1B, Cincinnati Reds

Joey Votto is an absolute first round pick in OBP leagues, but even in standard 5×5, David was happy to get him in the middle of the second round. The Cincinnati offense will struggle in 2016, but Votto will be its centerpiece and will get on base often. He will score plenty of runs and will drive in whatever the players ahead of him provide. With half of his games spent at the hitter’s heaven known as Great American Ballpark, he should again provide his usual 25 home runs.

C- 1B- Votto 2B- SS- 3B- OF-Stanton OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

2.06 Jamie Mellor- Mookie Betts – OF, Boston Red Sox

Jamie did not really believe one of those three third baseman (Bryant, Machado, Arenado) would fall but those were the players he initally looked at with this pick. Betts has a real chance to provide Jamie a 20-20 safety net with some upside along with strong contribution in runs and so far has seemed like a plus-player in BA. He is risky and Jamie knew that he was passing on some players with better track record or elite power potential, making both of his picks risk. If Votto was not selected earlier, a good case could be made to take him as the safe alternative for the more risk-adverse owners.

C- 1B- 2B- SS-Correa 3B- OF- Betts OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

2.07 Matt Terelle- Jose Bautista – OF, Toronto Blue Jays

Matt went all in with the Toronto hitters here, but Bautista was the top player left on the board. Bautista has been extremely consistent from a power perspective, hitting 27 or more home runs in six straight seasons. In fact, if it were not for injuries cutting short his 2012 and 2013 seasons, we would most likely be looking at a player with six straight 35-home run, 100-run, 100-RBI seasons. Toronto’s lineup is so talented, there are no worries about opposing teams pitching around Joey Bats.

C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B-Donaldson OF- Bautista OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

2.08 Eric Townsend- Jose Abreu – 1B, Chicago White Sox

With players on the corners being snapped up, Eric felt like getting a solid 1B with upside: Enter Jose Abreu. While Edwin Encarnacion was available, and his track record might make him the safer pick, Abreu has more potential. The White Sox vastly improved their lineup with the addition of Todd Frazier, as well as Brett Lawrie, and to some extent Dioner Navarro. Those additions give Abreu some needed protection in the lineup, helping his stats return to his rookie levels (36 HR/107 RBI/.317 AVG), with the possibility of even greater heights. Look for a potential 40 homer season coming from Abreu in 2016.

C- 1B- Abreu 2B-Altuve SS- 3B- OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

2.09 Kerry Kaufmann- Edwin Encarnacion – 1B, Toronto Blue Jays

After selecting the ace of my staff with my first pick, I noticed that the corner men have been a hot commodity. So as not to be left out, Toronto first baseman Edwin Encarnacion came off of the board next, my second choice behind Joey Votto. Encarnacion had 39 home runs and 111 RBI last season, showing that he is an offensive force. He has also been remarkably consistent, with a four-year average of 38 home runs and 106 RBI. Encarnacion will help in batting average and OPS as well, with marks of .277 and .929 respectively; he is a good foundation for any offense.

C- 1B-Encarnacion 2B- SS- 3B- OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P-Kershaw P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

2.10 Daniel Marcus- George Springer – OF, Houston Astros

Daniel was really hoping for Mookie Betts at this spot, but George Springer checks off many of the same boxes as Betts. Springer will almost certainly be a 20/20 player given health, and his batting average should not be too much of a worry. The construction of Daniel’s team is solid, as he now has an elite first baseman and elite outfielder. Daniel was also considering Max Scherzer in this spot, but because no pitcher has been taken beside Kershaw to this point, he believed that he should be able to get an elite starter at his next pick in the early third round.

C- 1B-Goldschmidt 2B- SS- 3B- OF- Springer OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

2.11 Roy Widrig- Chris Davis – 1B, Baltimore Orioles

Two picks, 89 home runs in 2015. He was a little weary selecting a free agent in the end of the second round, but Davis’ other-worldly power will play anywhere, especially in Baltimore, where it is most likely that he lands. His 5×5 stats are solid and his “low” .262 average can be balanced out later in the draft (also: never draft for batting average). Depending on your format, Davis has position eligibility in LF, RF, 1B and 3B, allowing for some position flexibility, should some hotshot 3B or 1B fall to the later rounds.

C- 1B-Davis 2B- SS- 3B- OF-Harper OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

2.12 Gavin Tramps- Max Scherzer – SP, Washington Nationals

There are many elite pitching options this year, but it was still a pleasant surprise that Max Scherzer survived until the end of the second round. He has posted four straight years of at least 230 strikeouts, that’s 10.57 strikeouts per nine over 851 innings, and only Clayton Kershaw has more impressive stats. Gavin expects Scherzer to utilize his five plus pitches to secure 18-20 wins and 250 strikeouts.

C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B- OF-Trout OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P-Scherzer P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

3.01 Gavin Tramps- Dee Gordon – 2B, Miami Marlins

Stolen bases were down by 10% in 2015 compared to 2014 and the number of players swiping at least 20 bags dropped from 39 in 2014 to just 24 in 2015. Dee Gordon, on the other hand, has topped the stolen base list for the last two years. Furthermore, his 122 stolen bases over the last two seasons are more than the combined total achieved by fellow second basemen Brian Dozier, Dustin Pedroia, Ben Zobrist, Brett Lawrie, Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy and Ian Kinsler. Additionally, only ten players have scored more runs over the last two years than the Marlins’ speedster and surprisingly Dee Gordon is the only one of the eleven with a batting average exceeding .300. Consecutive years of elite three-category fantasy production suggests that Dee Gordon will be an excellent pick at the start of the third round.

C- 1B- 2B-Gordon SS- 3B- OF-Trout OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P-Scherzer P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

3.02 Roy Widrig- Jake Arrieta – SP, Chicago Cubs

An offense of Bryce Harper and Chris Davis might keep me warm at night, butI will sleep better knowing he can get one or two elite starts from Jake Arrieta every week. Normally, I do not target guys coming off Cy Young-caliber seasons, as their value will likely only go down, but we saw something special from Arrieta in 2015 and I see no reason to expect a dramatic drop-off in 2016. His ERA will rise above 2.00 in 2016, but those 20 wins seem inevitable with the Cubbies’ dramatically improved offense and another 200 strikeout season seems very possible.

C- 1B-Davis 2B- SS- 3B- OF- Harper OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P-Arrieta P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

3.03 Daniel Marcus- Chris Sale – SP, Chicago White Sox

With some elite pitchers coming off the board, Daniel will grab his ace, as he will have to wait nearly two rounds for his next pick. There is a risk of injury with Sale, but his fantastic strikeout rate is worth all of the risk. The White Sox have a decent offense with the addition of Todd Frazier, so there is some good win potential for Sale as well. Daniel also considered Zack Greinke, who admittedly has a higher floor, but he wants the ceiling of Sale.

C- 1B-Goldschmidt 2B- SS- 3B- OF-Springer OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P-Sale P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

3.04 Kerry Kauffman- Todd Frazier – 3B, Chicago White Sox

After solidifying his first base position in the last round, Kerry wanted to complete his corner infield, having seen four top-notch third basemen go in the first two rounds. While Todd Frazier‘s average was just .255 and he does not draw many walks, his power numbers continue to improve, as he belted 35 home runs and knocked in 88 runs. A new league could initially cause trouble for him, but he is surrounded by Melky Cabrera and Jose Abreu, so he should get good pitches to hit. Fantasy owners should expect another 30-plus home run season and Kerry feels that he has a very solid infield foundation with the last two picks.

C- 1B-Encarnacion 2B- SS- 3B-Frazier OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P-Kershaw P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

3.05 Eric Townsend- Gerrit Cole – SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

The SP run begins and the three arms that were considered here were Cole, David Price, and Zack Greinke. So why Cole? While he may be the youngest, and least proven, Cole is a rising star in the majors. In his first season with 200+ innings, in 2015, he improved to an ERA of 2.60, a WHIP of 1.09, and 202 strikeouts. Cole is also the only one of the trio to stay in the same park, and PNC is the most pitcher-friendly of the bunch, with Greinke (Chase Field) and Price (Fenway) downgrading to even more hitter-friendly areas. That will only make Cole’s relative numbers look better in 2016, as he already allowed the fewest homers of the trio (11). Look for Cole to go to ~215-220 innings in 2016, with a similar ERA (sub-2.50 is likely), and the rest of his numbers, save the unpredictable wins (19 in 2015) to continue to improve.

C- 1B-Abreu 2B-Altuve SS- 3B- OF- OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P-Cole P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

3.06 Matt Terelle- Charlie Blackmon – OF, Colorado Rockies

Adding a player like Blackmon to Matt’s core of hitters is something he could not pass up. Blackmon provides steals, something in short supply, but he also has more pop than your average base stealer. Last season he swiped 43 bags and added 17 homers, giving 20/40 potential for 2016. He offers solid production across the board while getting a boost by playing his home games in Coors Field.

C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B-Donaldson OF-Bautista OF- Blackmon OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

3.07 Jamie Mellor- Ryan Braun – OF, Milwaukee Brewers

This was a hard call. There were four legitimate paths that Jamie considered and a few different players for each option. If Arrieta had fallen, Jamie wanted him, but from the four different paths, he narrowed it down to a single one and was left with J.D. Martinez vs Braun vs Blackmon. With Blackmon going the previous pick, it came down to Martinez and Braun and Jamie went with the five-tool player who he hopes is as fine as he claims. If he stays healthy, a .290ish batting average with 25 home runs, 90 RBI, 85 runs and 20 steals seems like a decent projection.

C- 1B- 2B- SS-Correa 3B- OF-Braun OF-Betts OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

3.08 David Marcillo- Buster Posey – C, San Francisco Giants

Round three made David consider a pitcher, but he figured that he would still have some solid choices there in the next few rounds. While catcher is often among the weakest offensive positions in baseball, it is quite top heavy with Posey and Kyle Schwarber making up the top tier. This pick was not based on upside, but Dave knows that he will at the very least know that he is set for the season behind the plate.

C-Posey 1B-Votto 2B- SS- 3B- OF-Stanton OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

3.09 Chris Zolli- J.D. Martinez – OF, Detroit Tigers

When push came to shove, this pick was between Martinez and Buster Posey; with Posey picked one pick earlier, that left me with Martinez. Although he was not my first choice at the pick, 38 home runs in 2015 and an .893 OPS over the last two seasons show that Martinez is a suitable option as a slugger for my team. A .543 slugging percentage shows that Martinez has all of the power my team will need and the assistance of Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez in the Tigers lineup will give a lot of RBI opportunities for J.D. Martinez as well. The one issue for Martinez is that he came absolutely out of nowhere in 2014; he only had a .687 OPS in his first 975 career plate appearances from 2011-2013. An inflated strikeout rate, 27.1%, and high BABIP, .389 in 2014 and .339 in 2015, are negative trends for Martinez, but he also has a ridiculously low percentage of softly hit balls, 11.2% in 2014 and 12.6% in 2015. Two power hitters in Arenado and Martinez combined with the multi-talented Marte give my team a good start.

C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B-Arenado OF-Marte OF-Martinez OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

3.10 Matthew Davis- Justin Upton – OF, Detroit Tigers

Justin Upton is pure gold. Matthew will continue to draft J-Up in the third or fourth round anytime he gets the chance. His analysis on Upton was the same prior to his 2015 season in San Diego, where his power plays in any park. Upton’s floor is 20 HR/80 RBI/80 R/10 SB regardless of what team or ballpark he plays most of his games in. His power is real and his ceiling is much higher than some may think. The 28-year-old already has a 30/20 season under his belt and could very well reach another level. JUp’s career .349 wOBA, .207 ISO, 121 wRC+ justify his top 30 talent. Lock Justin Upton onto your roster where you’re given a huge ceiling and a clean bill of health good for 600+ at-bats.

C- 1B-Rizzo 2B- SS- 3B- OF-Pollock OF-Upton OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

3.11 John Aubin- Jose Fernandez – SP, Miami Marlins

John is pretty excited to get Jose Fernandez. Fernandez has the potential to become one of the top pitchers in the game if not the best, apologies Clayton Kershaw. Obviously, the knock on him and, why he has dropped in early rankings, is his health. Coming into spring training fully healthy and almost two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Fernandez looks like a top SP. He has very little wear on his arm and should be poised for a breakout season. Since the start of 2012, he is third in ERA, third in strikeout rate, fourth in WHIP and seventh in HR/9. He may struggle to be a league leader in wins on a Marlins team that could struggle and he could potentially be capped at 180 innings this year but his upside is too high to pass up here.

C- 1B- 2B- SS- 3B-Bryant OF-McCutchen OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- Fernandez P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

3.12 Rob Klein- Nelson Cruz – OF, Seattle Mariners

Rob’s philosophy of accumulating power hitters with good batting averages continues with his selection of Cruz. Last year, he proved he was ballpark proof with even better numbers at Safeco Park. In 2015, he batted .302 with 44 home runs, 93 RBI and 90 runs scored. In 2014, in hitter-friendly Camden Yards, he batted .271 with 40 home runs. He does not expect Cruz to match his home run numbers from the last two seasons, but he is still one of the more feared hitters in baseball and a top-10 fantasy outfielder.

C- 1B-Cabrera 2B- SS- 3B-Machado OF-Cruz OF- OF- UT- UT- UT- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- P- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

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Chris Zolli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Chris, check out his archive and follow him @thezman2010.

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