There are 14 games on the main slate tonight at DraftKings. The games being played in Toronto, Milwaukee and Houston have the highest over/under at 9.0 runs. Five games have an over/under ranging from 8.0 to 8.5. Those games are being played in Baltimore, Miami, Cincinnati, Chicago and Kansas City. The Mets are the largest favorite with the line currently sitting at -230.
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Pitchers
Jake Arrieta is the top dog taking the mound tonight, coming in with the highest salary of $12,100. Arrieta has been dominant to start the 2016 season, posting a 24.8% strikeout rate with a 1.00 ERA. 26.4% of the time he is inducing soft contact, and he will be in a favorable pitching environment. However, the Pirates are a solid offense, owning the fourth-highest wOBA, wRC+ and ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Arrieta is a near must-play in cash games with the Pirates having a putrid 2.67 projected team total (TT), but isn’t a lock in tournaments.
Matt Harvey looked much better his last time out against the Reds. Harvey had plenty of movement on his pitches, his command was sharper and he was able to rack up more than a strikeout per inning with his fastball touching 97 MPH. Harvey will look to keep that going tonight against the Braves. Harvey is the largest favorite (-230) tonight and gets to face a Braves team that has little to no power (.062 ISO). The Braves have the second lowest projected TT (2.75), and I expect Harvey to mow right through them. The Dark Knight makes for a great tournament play as I have him graded out higher than Arrieta on a point-per-dollar scale.
Michael Wacha grades out higher than Sonny Gray and Wacha’s salary is $300 less. If you throw out the odd game against the Padres where he didn’t strike anybody out, Wacha would have a strikeout rate higher than one per inning. The Phillies have a meager .291 wOBA, 76 wRC+ and .137 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Wacha makes for a nice SP2 or SP1 if you want to fade Jake Arrieta and Matt Harvey in tournaments.
Matt Moore, Aaron Nola, Colin McHugh, Jose Quintana and Hisashi Iwakuma are all worth a look in tournaments.
Catcher
Buster Posey grades out as the highest option at the catcher postion. Jon Moscot hasn’t been able to pitch into the sixth inning, and the Reds’ bullpen is atrocious. The Giants have the fourth-highest projected TT (4.57) and get a huge upgrade in their hitting environment.
Jonathan Lucroy, Brian McCann and Welington Castillo are similar in salary and all get favorable matchups in good hitting environments. I prefer Lucroy for cash and the other two in tournaments.
Matt Wieters is still struggling at the plate and his salary ($3,200) is reflecting it, but he makes for a decent option. The Orioles have the fifth-highest projected TT (4.37) and their lineup crushes right-handed pitching at home.
First Base
Paul Goldschmidt gets to face a left-handed pitcher (Justin Nicolino) who has a strikeout rate of 8%. 8%!! You really don’t need more information. If you have the salary, pay up for Goldy tonight.
Albert Pujols is too expensive for my taste, and Anthony Rizzo faces a ground ball, left-handed pitcher in a spacious park. With that being said, Brandon Belt and Chris Davis grade out higher today and are less in salary.
Jose Abreu has four multi-hit games in a row and is a good knuckleball hitter. The White Sox have been rolling lately and have a high projected TT of 4.23. Abreu could be a sneaky tournament option tonight.
Joey Votto will most likely go low-owned again but he shouldn’t. Votto is in a favorable matchup against Jeff Samardzija who is allowing a .359 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season. Votto owned a .419 wOBA, 167 wRC+, .231 ISO against right-handed pitching at home last season.
Alex Rodriguez, Edwin Encarnacion, Prince Fielder, Byung Ho Park, Ryan Zimmerman and Mitch Moreland are great options that won’t break your bank.
Second Base
Jose Altuve is a fantastic tournament option, but it might be hard to fit him in with a salary of $5,500.
Logan Forsythe, Daniel Murphy, Robinson Cano and Jean Segura are all in good spots, but they are hitting in less than ideal hitting environments and all cost $4,100 and above.
Brian Dozier could be turning a corner as he went 3-for-5 yesterday. Dozier pulls a lot of home runs directly down the left field line and his power plays perfectly at The Juice Box, Minute Maid Park. $3,800 is too cheap for Dozier’s upside in that park.
Brett Lawrie, Rougned Odor, Brandon Phillips, Kolten Wong, Brandon Drury and Chris Coghlan are fine options at $3,700 and below.
Third Base
Josh Donaldson is facing a left-handed pitcher at home. You should always have exposure to Donaldson at home against a left-handed pitcher.
Manny Machado is better against right-handed pitchers and Luis Severino is struggling mightily against right-handed hitters this season. Machado could go low-owned due to his salary, and the majority of people who pay up will go with Donaldson.
Kris Bryant is too expensive for me today. Bryant is still battling an ankle injury and has to face a ground ball pitcher in PNC Park which is tough on right-handed power.
Nolan Arenado is on fire and makes for one of the best tournament options tonight. Arenado will somehow go low-owned and that’s because his matchup is against a right-handed pitcher in Petco Park. Don’t forget about the league leader in home runs.
Matt Duffy, Evan Longoria, Todd Frazier, Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Sano are my preferred options from $4,300 to $4,000.
Matt Carpenter, Eugenio Suárez, Mike Moustakas, Anthony Rendon, Adrian Beltre, Kyle Seager, Brandon Drury and Chris Coghlan are in play at $3,900 and below.
Justin Turner is only $2,800 and will likely hit third or fourth in the Dodgers’ lineup tonight. Turner will get things going sooner than later, and he can’t kill you at that salary.
Shortstop
Carlos Correa continues to burn me when I pay up for him. His salary of $5,000 is too much for me tonight. With that being said, Correa is an elite tournament option.
Troy Tulowitzki is facing a left-handed pitcher at home. Tulo will be chalky and he isn’t the hitter he once was, making him a cash game option.
Brandon Crawford is in a great spot against Jon Moscot. Crawford gets a huge boost in park factor and compliments a solid Giants’ stack.
The shortstop options stink tonight if you’re not paying up. Jimmy Rollins, Alcides Escobar, Elvis Andrus, Addison Russell, Javier Baez and Tim Beckham are $3,400 and below.
Outfield
Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, Hunter Pence and Bryce Harper are all worth their salaries of $5,100 and above. Trout and Pence have the better hitting environments while Stanton and Harper get the platoon advantage.
George Springer, Denard Span, Mookie Betts, Matt Kemp and Colby Rasmus range from $4,900 to $4,400 and are viable in tournaments.
Jose Bautista is way too cheap! Plug him into your cash lineups. You can even consider him as a one-off play if you’re not stacking the Blue Jays in tournaments. There is always a case to be made for fading a hitter, though. Bautista should be one of the highest owned outfielders tonight.
Miguel Sano, Carlos Gonzalez, Yasiel Puig, Nelson Cruz, Mark Trumbo, Jay Bruce, Ian Desmond, Charlie Blackmon, Stephen Piscotty, Michael Conforto, Josh Reddick and Gerardo Parra are fantastic options ranging from $4,000 to $3,500.
Nomar Mazara, Oswaldo Arcia, Kevin Pillar, Melky Cabrera, Brandon Guyer and Randal Grichuk are $3,400 and below while providing tournament upside.
Jon Jay, Kiké Hernandez, Trayce Thompson and Ben Paulsen are the preferred plays at $3,000 and below.
Recommended Cash Lineup
- Jake Arrieta (CHC): $12,100 @ PIT
- Michael Wacha (STL): $9,000 vs. PHI
- Matt Wieters (BAL): $3,200 vs. NYY
- Edwin Encarnacion (TOR): $3,800 vs. TEX
- Rougned Odor (TEX): $3,700 @ TOR
- Josh Donaldson (TOR): $5,200 vs. TEX
- Tim Beckham (TB): $2,800 vs. LAD
- Jose Bautista (TOR): $4,200 vs. TEX
- Brandon Guyer (TB): $3,100 vs. LAD
- Kiké Hernandez (LAD): $2,900 @ TB
Check out our DraftKings MLB Lineup Optimizer
If you have any start/sit question, feel free to tweet me at anytime. Best of luck tonight!
Matthew Davis is a correspondent for FantasyPros. You can find more from Matthew by viewing his archive or following him @_mattywood_.