Was Andrew Luck’s regression last year a fluke or a sign of things to come?

Houston Texans

DeAndre Hopkins (WR – HOU)
Easy choice here. Hopkins has improved in every fantasy relevant category each year since he was drafted.

He accomplished this with quarterbacks like Matt Schaub, Case Keenum, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett among others. It remains to be seen whether Brock Osweiler is better than any of those guys, but he’s probably not any worse.

Hopkins also benefited from the draft, when Houston added Will Fuller and Braxton Miller. That could mean fewer double-teams for Hopkins, who has never missed a game. He’s not quite in the tier occupied by Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones, but he’s close.

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Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck (QB – IND)
This is a toss-up. Luck would have been the clear choice in 2015 when he was considered one of the top two fantasy quarterbacks even though he hadn’t even entered his prime.

That changed when Luck missed half the season and didn’t look particularly good when he did suit up. Some of his poor play could be chalked up to injury and a bad offensive line, but he still made some incredibly poor decisions for a guy who was touted as a once-in-a-generation talent.

Enter T.Y. Hilton, who proved that his success wasn’t directly tied to Luck. Hilton managed to catch 69 passes for 1,124 yards despite Charlie Whitehurst, Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley being involved.

No doubt he has a better year with 16 healthy games from Luck, but he proved to still be a very useful asset at his position even with subpar quarterback play. That raises his floor and mitigates some risk.

So who do you take going forward? I’m obviously picking Luck, just because I have to believe last year was a fluke. Surely he didn’t morph from the best QB in fantasy to an injury prone Neil O’Donnell in one offseason. I’ll roll the dice on his upside, though I wouldn’t begrudge anyone for taking Hilton, especially in a PPR league.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Allen Robinson (WR – JAX)
Jacksonville’s defensive makeover has gotten a lot of press this offseason, but the offense did score more points per game than Green Bay in 2015. Robinson is shaping up to be overdrafted in 2016, but he was the Jags’ top playmaker last season. He was tied with Brandon Marshall and Doug Baldwin for the league lead with 14 touchdowns.

The other options—T.J. Yeldon, Chris Ivory, Julius Thomas and Blake Bortles—probably aren’t going to provide league-leading production like Robinson could. Also, I should point out that Justin Blackmon is still on Jacksonville’s roster, and he’s only 26. Dare to dream.

Tennessee Titans

Marcus Mariota (QB – TEN)
It’s tempting to take one of the running backs, but there are so many to choose from that it’s more of a gamble than I’d like. Derrick Henry is probably the future, but his role is uncertain with DeMarco Murray, David Cobb and Antonio Andrews battling for carries.

Dorial Green-Beckham is a good upside pick, but at this point, I still think Mariota is the better asset. He was a decent spot start and emergency injury replacement as a rookie, and he’ll presumably get a lot better.

But if you feel strongly about one of Tennessee’s running backs, go for it. I prefer Mariota until that situation sorts itself out.

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Derek Norton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Derek, visit his archive, follow him on Twitter @mdereknorton, or visit his website, Sports Monocle.