Few people, if any, predicted Rick Porcello would win the AL Cy Young Award, Brad Miller would out-homer Mike Trout, or Mark Trumbo would be the third different slugger from the Orioles over the last three years to top the home run chart. Here are some bold predictions, one for each AL team, for your consideration. Also, check out bold predictions from the NL.
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AL West
Angels: Cam Bedrosian finishes as a top-5 closer
With five 30+ save seasons and a couple of All-Star appearances to his name, Huston Street has been an excellent closer but surely that time has come to an end. In his 26 appearances last year, two stats jump out.
First, his ERA was higher than his strikeout rate (6.45 ERA compared to 5.64 K/9). And second, he only had 14 strikeouts all season. Fourteen! Cam Bedrosian was outstanding last year with a 1.13 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 11.38 K/9. The closer job should be the 25-year-old’s straight out of Spring Training.
Rangers: Nomar Mazara leads the Rangers with 30 home runs
The Rangers’ Rookie of the Year is a beast of a man. He hit 20 home runs last season, including the third longest at 491ft, according to MLB Statcast.
Although Rougned Odor and Adrian Beltre both hit more than 30 home runs, there is a likelihood that Odor’s 21.4 K% and 3.0 BB% will catch up with him, while even the biggest Beltre supporter would be surprised if the 37-year-old could repeat 2016, his best season for four years. Mazara is only 21 years old. The room for development is immense.
Mariners: Mitch Haniger goes 20/20 in Gold Glove debut season in Seattle
Seattle’s offseason moves have opened the door for extended playing time for the former first-round pick. The 26-year-old destroyed Triple-A pitching in 2016 with 20 home runs and a slash line of .341/.428/.670 before blasting five home runs in just 34 games for the Diamondbacks.
He is an excellent defensive outfielder and Mariners’ GM Jerry Dipoto has likened the ‘late bloomer’ to Kole Calhoun, a player who thrived under his charge in Anaheim. The Mariners have acquired two top-drawer base stealers in Jarrod Dyson and Jean Segura, perhaps suggesting a new direction for their offense.
Athletics: Liam Hendriks leads the Athletics with 25 saves
With Santiago Casilla, Sean Doolittle, John Axford and Ryan Madson, the Athletics have four proven closers in their bullpen as well as the highly-rated Ryan Dull, but arguably, Liam Hendriks is the best pitcher in the organization. Sean Doolittle missed two months with a shoulder strain. John Axford walked 5.04 BB/9 in the second half.
Santiago Casilla blew nine saves for the Giants, and Ryan Madson struck out less than 6.00 SO/9 in the second half while allowing significantly more hard contact as the season progressed. Over the last two years, Liam Hendriks has been a top-20 reliever with his 2.8 fWAR putting him just ahead of Craig Kimbrel and Kelvin Herrera.
Astros: Chris Devenski becomes the ace of the staff
In 2016, Chris Devenski went from non-roster invitee to Spring Training to becoming one of the Astros’ most valuable bullpen arms in the playoffs. Last season, the right-hander threw 108 ⅓ innings with 2.16 ERA, 104 strikeouts, and an elite 0.91 WHIP.
The Astros’ four main starting pitchers of Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Doug Fister and Mike Fiers threw just under 700 innings with an uninspiring 4.50 ERA. Unsurprisingly Astros’ manager A.J. Hinch has already confirmed that 26-year-old Devenski will be considered for the 2017 rotation.
AL Central
Indians: Edwin Encarnacion sets the Indians’ all-time RBI record
Over the last five years, Edwin Encarnacion has 550 RBI, bettered only by Miguel Cabrera. His consistency is outstanding, and he set a career-high in 2016 with 127 RBI.
The Indians play a different game than the Blue Jays. Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista were the Blue Jays’ only .340+ OBP players.
The Indians had six players (Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Guyer, Tyler Naquin and Jose Ramirez) like that, plus Michael Brantley, one of the most disciplined hitters in the game. There will be plenty of base runners for Edwin Encarnacion to surpass Manny Ramirez’s record of 165 RBI.
Royals: Danny Duffy puts himself in the Cy Young conversation
Despite working from the bullpen for the first six weeks of the season, the Royals’ left-hander finished 2016 as the 40th ranked starting pitcher. He posted 3.51 ERA in 179 ⅔ innings with 188 strikeouts. The highlight of the season was the 16-strikeout, eight-inning outing against the Rays in August.
The ZiPS projections suggest further improvements are imminent and list Cliff Lee as a comparison. With a full season of starts, pitching in front of the ever-impressive Royals’ defense, Danny Duffy can become a Cy Young contender in 2017.
White Sox: Rymer Liriano goes from waiver claim to All-Star
The right-hander missed all of 2016 after suffering a horrific hit-by-pitch incident in Spring Training. He was claimed by the rebuilding White Sox who have plenty of opportunities in their outfield.
In 2015, Liriano slashed .292/.383/.460 with 14 home runs, 16 stolen bases, 31 doubles and 64 walks in 131 games. The former top-30 prospect, who is out-of-options, was back in action with 120 at-bats in the Dominican Winter League.
Twins: Byung-ho Park leads the Twins in home runs and RBI
The 30-year-old had season-ending surgery in August for a cartilage tear in his finger. On the whole, it was a disappointing season for a player who hit 50 home runs in each of his two previous seasons in Korea.
It should not be overlooked that he did hit 22 home runs in 2016 (12 in the majors and 10 in Triple-A) and by cherry-picking a 16-game stretch from April 16, he looked like a superstar hitting .315 AVG, 1.099 OPS with six home runs in 64 at-bats. The power is there, and improvements will come with more familiarity of the pitchers and the MLB environment.
Tigers: Bruce Rondon leads the Tigers in saves, WHIP, ERA and strikeout rate
Tigers’ closer Francisco Rodriguez has seen his fastball velocity drop year-on-year and set a career-low strikeout rate of 7.16 SO/9 in the second half of 2016. At the same time, Bruce Rondon blew batters away with a 15.8% swinging strike rate and an FIP a full two points lower than the veteran’s. The 26-year-old was the most dominant of the Tigers’ pitchers with 11.15 SO/9 and recorded a career-low walk rate and career-best strikeout rate, helped by his wipeout slider which produced strikes 52.5% of the time, making it one of the best in the game.
AL East
Orioles: Welington Castillo out-homers all catchers
Over the last two years, only five catchers have hit more home runs than the 33 launched by Welington Castillo, but no-one has done it in as few at-bats. The 29-year-old should not lose much playing time to backup Caleb Joseph, who failed to record one single RBI last season.
The home run leader has called Camden Yards home for the last four seasons, and Mark Trumbo saw a 38% increase in home runs after moving to Baltimore. Welington Castillo doesn’t do soft contact, falling into the same grouping as Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout and David Ortiz with less than 13%.
Yankees: Michael Pineda becomes an undisputed ace
The 28-year-old made a career-high 32 starts in 2016 but was tagged with an ugly but 6-12 win-loss record. He was unlucky with 17.0% HR/FB, a significant increase above his pre-2016 career average of 10.0%. He generates a high number of groundballs, and this increased to 48.1% in the second half.
The right-hander’s slider is still one of the best pitches in the game, registering 140 strikeouts last season (24.2% swinging strikes) and the only 32-game starter who could match Pineda’s 14.1% swinging strike rate and 10.61 SO/9 was Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer.
Red Sox: Hanley Ramirez hits career-high in home runs to become Big Papi 2.0
Hanley Ramirez erased the disappointment of his first season in Fenway by slugging over .500 last year, for only the second time this decade. His 2016 production ranked him in the top-10 first basemen, but he was sensational for final 50 games with 17 home runs and 1.013 OPS.
There was a big jump in his hard-hit rate, and he went opposite field more frequently than he has for many years. Injuries and playing time have always been a concern, but the 33-year-old is expected to be the Red Sox’ everyday DH.
Rays: Wilson Ramos has the best season by a catcher in Rays’ history
In December, the 29-year-old said that he was already one month ahead of schedule in his recovery from knee surgery and is expecting to debut with the Rays in early May. Expect Wilson Ramos to see plenty of time at DH on the days that he is not behind the plate. The only two catchers in Rays’ history with fWAR over 2.0 are John Jaso in 2010 and John Flaherty in 1999.
Even by cherry-picking the highlights of their seasons (14 home runs, 57 runs and .278 AVG), it looks well within the capabilities of Wilson Ramos who slashed .307/.354/.496 with 25 doubles, 22 homers and 80 RBI over 131 games for the Nationals.
Blue Jays: Marcus Stroman becomes the ace of the AL East
It was a difficult start to 2016 for the right-hander, having missed most of the previous season with an ACL tear. In May and June, he posted 5.83 ERA and was unable to control walks, issuing free passes at the rate of 2.99 BB/9. The rest of the season was significantly better, with 3.42 ERA and 1.99 BB/9, and he became the only Blue Jays’ pitcher to throw 200 innings in 2016, leading the team with 32 starts.
There is no other starting pitcher in the game who gets groundballs at the rate induced by the 25-year-old. In an era when 45 GB% gets you in the top-30, Marcus Stroman’s 60.1 GB% is unworldly.
He has a six-pitch mix with the sinker, slider and cutter all inducing ground balls but all six get strikeouts, especially the slider and curveball which produce over 15% swinging strikes. Whiffs and groundballs. A recipe for success.
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Gavin Tramps is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Gavin, check out his archive or find him @_tramps.