The terms sleeper and breakout candidate are often used interchangeably by writers and podcast hosts, leaving fantasy owners somewhat confused on what is the difference between the two types of players.
For the sake of this article, a sleeper is someone who is a relatively unknown by the masses and currently ranked out of the top 150 on our consensus rankings. A breakout candidate can be a well-known and established player that based on recent trends or other variables, is poised to deliver a breakout season.
A sleeper can also be a breakout candidate, based on the fact that they are a relatively unknown player ranked out of the top 150 poised for a breakout season. But an established player like Brandon Belt, who is breakout candidate commonly known in fantasy circles, should not be referred to as a sleeper.
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The following are six breakout first base candidates to keep an eye on in drafts this spring.
Brandon Belt (1B – SF)
A perennial breakout candidate in each of the past three seasons after grabbing the starting first base job in 2012, Belt has yet to reach the 20 home run plateau, while driving in over 80 runs only once in his six-year MLB career. Belt’s prototypical 6’5″ frame and smooth swing woo fantasy owners into drafting the former Texas Longhorn product, only to be disappointed by a small power number hindered by playing in one of the most difficult hitter’s parks in the big leagues. A closer look at his peripheral stats provides some insight on positive changes Belt is making at the plate that could lead to a possible 75/25/90 season. In 655 plate appearances in 2016, Belt posted an impressive 16% walk rate while lowering his strikeout percentage nearly five basis points from the previous two seasons. That change led to a career-high on-base percentage of .394, which was fourth-best among qualified first baseman. While showing a renewed, patient approach at the plate, Belt continued to show nice exit velocity on hit balls in play, with only a 16.6% soft contact rate. If he can build upon his plate discipline while continuing to crush the ball at a respectable 46% fly ball rate, Belt is a prime candidate to hit between 20 and 30 home runs this season, making him a nice value at his current ECR of 152.
Ian Desmond (1B/OF – COL)
A former shortstop in Washington that resurrected his career with a one-year stint in the Texas Rangers outfield before signing a lucrative free-agent deal with the Rockies, Ian Desmond is primed for a breakout offensive season playing half his games in the thin, Denver air. It may seem a bit strange to refer to Desmond as a breakout candidate based on the fact that he is currently ranked 40th overall on our ECR rankings, and he enters the season on the heels of logging a career-best 107 runs scored in 2016. But I believe the best is yet to come for Desmond, with the chance of posting his first 30 home run/ 100 RBI season well within reach batting behind Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Carlos Gonzalez.
Yulieski Gurriel (1B – HOU)
Gurriel made is Major League debut last season at the ancient age of 31 after spending the entirety of his professional career playing in Cuba and for other international clubs. In 137 plate appearances over 36 games last season, Gurriel showed promise with a .262 batting average and three home runs. Not exactly stellar stats considering the five-year, $47.5 million deal he signed with the club after defecting from Cuba last season. But his career numbers in international play are staggering, with a .335 batting average, 250 home runs, and .997 OPS over 15 season. With stud prospect, Alex Bregman holding onto the starting third base job Gurriel will likely need to play first base to stay on the field in 2017. If he can log at least 400 at-bats hitting in the potent Houston lineup behind Bregman, Carlos Correa, and Jose Altuve, Gurriel has an excellent chance to break out this season.
Tommy Joseph (1B – PHI)
The emergence of Brandon Belt as the starting first baseman for the Giants is a primary reason why Tommy Joseph, a former second-round pick by San Francisco in 2009, became expendable and a trade casualty as part of the deal for Hunter Pence in 2012. Joseph had no track to playing time on the Giants with Buster Posey and Brandon Belt log-jamming the starting first base and catching roles, but now as a member of the Phillies Joseph could develop into one of the best power-hitting first basemen in the National League. After securing the starting role from an aging and struggling Ryan Howard, Joseph displayed his power with 21 home runs and 47 RBI in just 347 plate appearances. With Howard long gone and a clear path to 500 at-bats should he stay healthy, the Phoenix, Arizona native appears poised to hit 30 home runs, while driving in close to 90 runs. A terrible walk rate (6.3%) mixed with a high propensity to strikeout (21.6%) and low batting average limits Joseph’s overall appeal, especially in points leagues. But if you are in need of a power-hitting first baseman with huge HR upside late in the draft, Tommy Joseph is someone you need to target.
Josh Bell (1B – PIT)
Bell is a polar opposite of Tommy Joseph in nearly every facet of his game, from plate discipline (1.11 BB/K rate as a rookie) to his ability to hit in all parts of the field. Although he hit a grand slam in his second Major League at-bat, power is not the strength of his game, and fantasy owners in need of upside power should not expect that from Bell. But owners looking for a first baseman who can hit close to .300 with the upside of driving in 80 runs would be hard-pressed to find a better option late than Josh Bell. His limited sample size of 152 plate appearances with a 50% ground ball rate suggests that his swing is not built for the long ball, yet the fact that he is a switch-hitting first baseman that goes the opposite way over 40% of the time is evidence of an impressive hitter with room to improve.
Greg Bird (1B – NYY)
The retirement of Mark Teixeira at the conclusion of the 2016 season opened the door for a new starting first baseman to emerge from the Yankees farm system. The likely candidates are smooth swinging 24-year-old Greg Bird and Tyler Austin, a 25-year-old utility player that likely projects as the bench player for manager Joe Girardi. For more information on the position battle, be sure to check out my spring training position battles to monitor article published earlier this month. Before missing the entire 2016 season with a torn labrum, Bird posted impressive stats in limited action in reserve of Teixeira in 2015. The former fifth-round pick in the 2011 amateur draft hit 11 home runs and drove in 31 runs in only 178 at bats while posting a 45% hard hit percentage and 10.7% walk rate. Although there is always the concern of losing power after a shoulder injury, Bird appears to be feeling just fine win two home runs and a 1.833 OPS in his first four games of the spring. Bird projects to be a cheaper version of Brandon Belt with the ability to drive in more runs as part of a potent NYY lineup.
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Andrew Swanson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @andyswansonESPN.
