I checked in on catcher sleepers the last time, which given the scarcity of fantasy talent, was more or less the equivalent of running nails on a chalk board.
Honestly, just typing that made me cringe. Do schools even use chalkboards anymore?
Anyway, now we move onto the outfield, a lush, rolling green field of fantasy excellence, birds chirping and all. Let’s see where we can find some value this season.
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Carlos Gomez (TEX): ECR No. 169
Gomez is a classic buy-low option, coming off two straight down seasons. Now 31 years old, he may no longer be the fantasy superstar who once hit 24 bombs and stole 40 bags, but he may still have a 20-20 season left in him.
He began last season floundering about with the Astros, compiling a forgettable .210/.272/.322 line and 60 wRC+. That earned him his walking papers, but the Rangers picked him up, and some glimpses of the old Gomez emerged. Maybe it was just 130 plate appearances, but he hit a healthy .284/.362/.543 and more than doubled his wRC+ with 139. Even with the slow start, across both teams he managed 13 home runs and 18 stolen bases.
However, he struck out an egregious 30% of the time though (27.7% with the Rangers), so we should probably pump the brakes on a good batting average. Still, everyone loves a good power-speed combo, and only nine players achieved a 20-20 season in 2016. Even better, he’s expected to rack up the at-bats leading off this season. There’s no telling if Gomez can still bring it for a full season, but the upside makes him a solid bounce-back pick.
Keon Broxton (MIL): ECR No. 181
In the vein of Gomez, here is another potential power-speed asset who strikes out too much.
The 26-year-old Broxton is a popular breakout candidate after reaching nine home runs and 23 stolen bases in 244 plate appearances last season. The big worry is the strikeouts, though, as Broxton struck out 36.1% of the time, a figure worse than noted strikeout artists Chris Davis (32.9%), Chris Carter (32%), and Mike Napoli (30.1%). It’s possible he makes some improvements, but a 28.4% strikeout rate in the minors suggest we shouldn’t hold our breath.
On the bright side, Broxton maintained a 14.8% walk rate, so he’s not a total lost cause at the plate, and the potential power is enticing. His average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives was 97 mph, a hair below Miguel Cabrera (97.1 mph). He also had a superb 43.3% hard-hit rate, and minuscule 13.3% soft-hit rate. Across 122 games in the majors and minors combined he slugged 17 home runs, so 15-20 is a reasonable expectation moving forward. Add that to around 30 stolen bases and you can see what’s exciting about Broxton. There’s talk that he’ll hit high in the order as well.
If he doesn’t reel them in a bit, the strikeouts could be Broxton’s downfall, so he’s not a total slam dunk. But like Gomez, there is tantalizing upside here, making Broxton an exciting risk-reward pick.
Eric Thames (MIL): ECR No. 201
Thames may very well be the trendiest outfielder sleeper out there these days, to the point where it may be a stretch to even call him one. But his unique situation is worth addressing. What we know is he was an absolute monster for three years in South Korea, highlighted by a 2015 MVP season in which he put up 47 homers, 40 stolen bases, 130 runs, 140 RBIs, and slashed .381/.497/.790. That’s amazing in any setting. The stolen bases are probably a little flukey (he stole 13 last year), but it’s hard not to dream of the possibilities.
Of course, the trouble is we have no idea how these stats will translate to the States. Now 30 years old, Thames last played in the majors in 2012, and couldn’t surpass Triple-A in 2013. South Korean stars like Jung Ho Kang and Byung Ho-Park have made the transition, but with diverging results, making it unclear how Thames’ skills will play. Even normally conservative projections are all over the place with Thames, but together they shake out to around 25 home runs, 70 runs, 75 RBIs, 10 stolen bases and a .260 average. No, not South Korea numbers, but a fair assessment of what his baseline may be.
Since Thames has gotten a lot of press this offseason, he may go earlier in your draft than is advisable. There’s a wide range of outcomes, including him completely flaming out, but he could emerge as a big-time power bat. The potential ceiling makes him worth taking a chance on after fellow sleepers Gomez and Broxton are off the board.
Yasiel Puig (LAD): ECR No. 205
It seems like Puig ends up on lists like these every year, and yet we keep coming back.
Puig burst on the scene in 2013, but has disappointed ever since, seemingly getting worse every season. In fact, his wRC+ has steadily decreased each year (160, 148, 112, 102), and injuries have kept him under 400 plate appearances the past two seasons. But the price is the lowest its ever been, and at age 26 it’s difficult to not once again fall for the allure of unfulfilled potential. Last year’s mostly forgettable campaign led to a one-month demotion to Triple-A in August, but once he returned in September, Puig hit four of his 11 home runs to the tune of a .281/.338/.561 line and 137 wRC+. Right when you’re ready to give up on him, he does something to drag you back in.
What’s clear is Puig won’t be the star we thought he was in 2013, but he still has the skills to imagine 20 homers, 10 swiped bags, and a .280 average. Still, finishing a season on a high note doesn’t discount years of underwhelming performances. Furthermore, he’ll have a very short leash in a crowded Dodgers outfield, and could wind up in a platoon or worse. The negative trends make Puig a more tepid endorsement, but he’s definitely worth a look with his average draft position (ADP) just outside the top 200.
David Peralta (ARI): ECR No. 228
Due to injuries, 2016 was a lost season for Peralta, appearing in just 48 games before being shut down in August for wrist surgery. But in 2015 he hit .312/.371/.522 with 17 home runs, 78 RBIs, and nine stolen bases. His 137 wRC+ was as good as David Ortiz that year. However, it remains his only season with over 500 plate appearances, so even with health, it’s fair to wonder whether he can fully duplicate those numbers. Another concern is a woeful career 26.5% strikeout rate and 65 wRC+ against left-handed pitching in 215 plate appearances. With the smaller sample size, it’s possible those numbers can improve given time, but he may not get a chance if he ends up in a dreaded platoon.
However, any concerns are trivial when you consider his discounted price. His ADP is well above 250, going as late as the mid-300s in Yahoo and CBS leagues. Peralta’s wrist is expected to be fine this year, and he’s even using an ax-handled bat to alleviate any potential discomfort. He could also bat cleanup as in years past, boosting his RBI chances. If he can repeat his 2015 stat line, you’ll be well ahead of the curve, making Peralta an excellent late value pick.
Travis Jankowski (SD): ECR No. 299
Jankowski is the epitome of cheap speed. A surprise fantasy asset last year, he stole 30 bases in only 131 games. Like many speedsters though, his power is virtually nonexistent, hitting just two home runs with a .069 isolated power. He also struck out too much with a 26.1% strikeout rate and .245 average, but a 11% walk rate got his OBP up to a slightly more respectable .332.
With Alex Dickerson on the shelf to start the season, Jankowski should get plenty of playing time initially. But with Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot on the roster, a full strength Padres outfield could leave Jankowski in a time share or reserve role. Still, as a late round flier in deep formats and NL-only leagues, even with zero power and a shaky batting average, you’ll happily take a low-cost shot in the dark at 30-40 stolen bases.
Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantayPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
