Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Third Base

Last time, I went over some second base sleepers you should try to get on your team this year. Today, let’s check out some mid-to-late round values from the hot corner. Don’t sleep on these guys in your draft!

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Note: Brandon Drury is also a sleeper at third base, but I listed him among second basemen. For more on him, please check out that list!

Jake Lamb (ARI): ECR No. 132

“Rake” Lamb as the kids call him (or “clever” experts), has gotten a lot of chatter this offseason, so maybe it’s a stretch to call him a sleeper. But if you’re not on the bandwagon yet, let me lend you a hand to climb aboard.

Lamb had a breakout 2016, putting up 29 home runs, 81 runs, 91 RBIs, and 6 stolen bases. His .260 isolated power (ISO) more than doubled his 2015 output (.123), and was supported by a rise in fly-ball rate (36.7%), hard-hit rate (39.4%), and average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives (96.3 MPH). With the big leap in power, it’s fair to wonder if his 21.2% home-run-to-fly-ball rate is repeatable, but even with some regression, there’s enough evidence here that the power surge is very real. Lamb also exhibited good patience at the plate with a career-high walk rate (10.8%).

But Lamb isn’t without some issues. Last year’s 25.9% strikeout rate fell right in line with his 25.8% career rate, leading to a .249 average, which is about what can be expected moving forward. His career struggles against left-handed pitching also continued, as he put up just a 63 wRC+, a far cry from his 128 wRC+ against right-handers. But with only 202 career plate appearances against lefties — 129 of which were last year — the sample size remains small, so it’s possible that as an everyday player he can work through his lefty issues. He also struggled badly from August onward (68 wRC+), but this was likely due to a hand injury he suffered towards the end of July, and shouldn’t be a cause for concern.

Lamb won’t put up a great batting average, but he should slug another 20-30 homers with solid run and RBI contributions, particularly if he gets at-bats in the two-hole as Roster Resource predicts. And at 26 years old, there’s always the potential for further growth. Third base is fairly deep this year, so even in a 15-team mixed league, you’ll still be in good hands if you nab Lamb as your starter late.

Ryon Healy (OAK): ECR No. 179

The 25-year-old Healy has also picked up some steam this offseason, and for good reason. An emerging power threat like Lamb, last year Healy slugged 13 homers across just 283 plate appearances with a .219 ISO. He had an impressive 134 wRC+, a mark that matched the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, and Yoenis Cespedes. It’s a small sample size for sure, but noteworthy nonetheless. Although he’s eligible at third base in fantasy, this season Healy is expected to split time between first base and DH and will have a chance to play everyday in the heart of the Athletics order.

Of course, with such a short track record, it’s difficult to project just how good a player Healy will be. Last year’s .305 average looks impressive on the surface, but benefited from a likely unsustainable .352 BABIP. Like many young players, his walk rate left something to be desired (4.2%), and his strikeout rate (21.2%) and hard-hit rate (30%) were merely around league average.

Still, projections spot him around a .270 average with 15-20 homers, a solid baseline, and one he will outdo if he can match last season’s home run pace. For a guy often dropping outside the top 200 in drafts, I’ll gladly take my chances that he does.

Nick Castellanos (DET): ECR No. 216

Castellanos is yet another young, developing power threat. Noticing a trend here?

In 2016, Castellanos slugged a career-high 18 home runs despite just 447 plate appearances due to missed time from a fractured hand. As in Lamb’s case, he improved his ISO immensely, going from .164 the year prior, all the way up to .212. The power surge was fueled by rises in both fly-ball rate (43%) and hard-hit rate (35.7%), suggesting it could be sustainable.

However, also like Lamb, Castellanos suffered from a high strikeout rate (24.8%), but without the stellar walk rate (6.3%). Despite the strikeouts, he managed a solid .285 average, but a .345 BABIP suggest a repeat is unlikely. On the positive side, a high career line-drive rate (25.5%) and above average career BABIP (.329) indicate the average shouldn’t drop much below .270.

In many ways, the 25-year-old Castellanos is a Lamb-lite — slightly higher average, but less power. Unlike Lamb, he’s never surpassed even 20 homers, let alone sniffed close to 30, so while the pace looked good last year, it’s unclear what the ceiling is. Gradual improvements each season indicate 20-plus homers are coming, though, making Castellanos a fine target.

Jose Reyes (NYM): ECR No. 317

I know what you’re thinking. Jose Reyes? Hear me out.

The former elite shortstop is past his prime, but is primed for a super-utility role with the Mets this season. Yet with David Wright looking extremely doubtful these days, he’ll open the season as the starting third baseman. Although technically playing time could be a concern when the team is at full strength, between Wright’s dubious health, and the Mets’ plan to have Reyes potentially play all over the infield (and possibly outfield), he should get his at-bats one way or another. Even better, when he plays, he’s expected to bat leadoff.

So if he’s getting the playing time, what kind of production can we expect? Last season, due to his 51-game suspension for domestic abuse and subsequent midseason release by the Rockies, Reyes signed a minor league contract with the Mets and didn’t see a major league field until July. Thus, he only had 279 plate appearances but showed promise by hitting eight bombs and stealing nine bases. With double the plate appearances, could a 20-20 season have been in store? Probably not, but even Reyes tried to get a piece of that power binge pie last year, putting up his highest ISO since 2008 (.176), along with career highs in fly-ball rate (43.2%) and hard-hit rate (29%). The downside is this approach also resulted in a career worst strikeout rate (17.6%), but fantasy owners would gladly take that in exchange for some pop.

Considering Reyes has never hit 20 home runs in any of his 14 major league seasons, it’s difficult to imagine him doing it for the first time at age 33. However, Reyes stole 24 bases in 2015, so he still has some wheels. With playing time opening up for him, he should get plenty of chances to rack up the counting stats in a leadoff role. Go in thinking 10 bombs and 15 swiped bags, but there could be some sneaky, low-cost speed potential here.

Matt Duffy (TB): ECR No. 357

Duffy broke out in 2015, hitting .295 with 77 runs, 77 RBIs, 12 home runs, and 12 stolen bases — solid figures across the board. However, an injury-plagued 2016 caused him to miss all but 91 games, leaving him well short of those marks. His wRC+ dropped from 114 in 2015, down to 84 last season. Recovering from heel surgery he had last September, he may not even be ready by Opening Day. As a result, Duffy is practically being ignored in most drafts, typically falling outside the top 300.

A third baseman for most of his major league career, Duffy is slated to be the starting shortstop for the Rays this season. It’s impossible to completely throw out his abysmal 2016, but if we split the difference with his 2015 numbers there’s still some potential at his non-existent price. That’s essentially what most projections suggest, giving Duffy somewhere along the lines of 60 runs, 60 RBIs, 10 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and a .265 average. Sure, those are replacement level numbers in your average league, but if he can come anywhere close to his 2015 numbers, he’s not that far off from someone like Adam Eaton, who is being drafted about 200 picks earlier. Now that’s not to say we should expect Eaton-level production, but that could be Duffy’s ceiling if everything goes right.

With a career 51.1% ground-ball rate and .115 ISO, no one will confuse Duffy as a power hitter. However, a career 15.6% strikeout rate, 84% contact rate, and .321 BABIP, give promise that a solid batting average is still possible. The modest power and speed may make Duffy a less exciting investment, but a bounce-back campaign could provide some solid value in deeper leagues.

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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantayPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.

MLB Brandon Drury Jake Lamb Ryon Healy Paul Goldschmidt Edwin Encarnacion Yoenis Cespedes Nick Castellanos Jose Reyes David Wright Matt Duffy Adam Eaton